Carolina Quick Hitters
The metrics that matter following Virginia Tech's 24-11 loss to South Carolina
Maybe it’s just me, but Sunday’s game against South Carolina felt a lot like a useful preseason game.
Of course, there is no pre-season in college football, so the result goes into the L column for the Hokies.
Still, it was a hard-hitting, but clean game, and both sides learned something about themselves.
Rather than jump to conclusions (Week 1 → Week 2 changes in SP+ are basically meaningless, seeing as only a few teams played actual, legit opponents right out of the gate), I’m going to review only the numbers that matter.
The noise will sort itself out in a few weeks.
Overall
On Saturday, I shared data showing that many ACC teams were underrated in week 1. Virginia Tech was one of those teams, and although South Carolina covered, the game was much closer for much longer than many people expected.
In terms of ELO, the game was worth 24 rating points. South Carolina is now up to 1729, second on Tech’s schedule only to Miami (1752). Louisville is the only other future Tech opponent over 1700.
The Hokies are now at 1575 rating points. Based solely on ELO, Virginia Tech should be favored in their next seven games.
Quarterback
I’ll skip the headline numbers, which by now most readers have already digested from other sources, and instead focus on two things that seem to have flown under the radar:
Sunday was the first time that Kyron Drones had taken game reps since the Clemson game last year. It had been nearly 10 months since he played a snap in any semblance of good health. It has not been confirmed, but there is a good chance Sunday was the first time Kyron got live reps period in 2025. He missed the Spring Game, and coming off surgery, I doubt Pry & Co. let anyone hit him during training camp. When you factor that in with Carolina’s constant pressure, it’s no surprise that he had mechanical and judgement lapses. He has a lot of rust to shake off. I would not expect him to hit his stride until the NC State game, at the earliest.
Last week I listed the Drones/Montgomery fit as a factor that could possibly cost the Hokies a game or two this year. In that regard, I was pleasantly surprised by the progress Drones displayed. He completed 3 out of 8 passes that travelled more than 20 yards in the air. Those three completions were good for 85 yards. Last year, he completed 9 out of 28 such attempts for 312 yards. The year before he completed a dreadful 9 out of 42 for 412 yards. He put many of the deep passes right on the money Sunday afternoon against very tight coverage. And he would have had a couple more completions had his receivers been able to complete the catch as they went to the ground. Then, of course, there was the completion to Ayden Greene that got called back due to the chop block. But you get my point. Whereas in past years Drones often wildly overthrew his receivers, against the Gamecocks he consistently threw passes into tight windows where only his receivers had a chance to make the catch.
Running backs
We know Terion Stewart was injured and did not travel with the team, but Braydon Bennett’s absence from the game was notable. I doubt PJ Prioleau is the true #2 tailback. Perhaps that position group has been hit by more injuries than Pry has let on.
Defense
Caleb Woodson did not start, due to his DWI charge a week ago, but he played the most snaps (47) of any defender. That tells us a few things:
He’s the leader of the defense
He’s much better than his backup, Antwone Santiago
Pry was confident that playing him would not negatively impact the team’s culture or discipline
Defensive line
The constant player rotation was excellent. There were no hands on hips. The burst at the end of the game was just as good as it had been in the first half. Sure, LaNorris Sellers had a few big runs on the final drive, but he was scrambling away from pressure. One does not expect to see that level of pressure against an SEC opponent late in a game that was no longer in doubt.
The players that Sam Siefkes targeted in the transfer portal, namely Kody Huisman (27 snaps, PFF 77.4) and Elhadj Fall (22 snaps, PFF 84.7), played their roles to perfection. Notably, they were the two highest graders per PFF on the defense.
Linebackers
This week the starting WLB is listed as Jaden Keller OR Michael Short. While the Hokies will probably continue to play both guys, I would expect Short to get more than 50% of the snaps against Vanderbilt, and possibly as many as 75%. Just look at what each player did against South Carolina:
Jaden Keller: 31 snaps, 49.0 PFF grade
Michael Short: 24 snaps, 77.2 PFF grade
Keller received the second lowest grade on defense, while Short received the third highest. Siefkes is not a sentimental guy. Short has earned more snaps, and he will very likely get them this week.
Secondary
Isaiah Brown-Murray held up alright (PFF 66.6), but Dante Lovett (54.5) and Caleb Brown (35.0) really struggled. The rotation was pretty even between the three, but I would expect IBM and Lovett to play “starter” level snaps and Brown to be in the 15-20 range (he got 21 against South Carolina) moving forward.
I was surprised to see Jordan Bass in the game late. Perhaps Prioleau played him out of frustration. Quentin Reddish (PFF 65.1) was ok, but Tyson Flowers was sub-60. Both Bass and Sherrod Covil received grades in the mid-60s. The rotation there will probably continue.
Isaiah Cash (PFF 63.8) and Christian Ellis (PFF 51.7) split the nickel snaps equally, but Cash graded out much higher. I don’t think either is a true nickel, so it will be interesting to see how this competition evolves.