'Know Nothing' Period Approaches End
Effects of VT's unquantifiable offseason changes are (finally) about to produce quantifiable results - but what is likely to matter most?
It has been an offseason of great change in Blacksburg.
The dismantling of the 2024 team and coaching staff began before the season even ended.
New coaches and new players trickled in throughout the winter, then again in a burst after spring practice.
There are lots of new names and faces - so many that matching the former with the latter is nearly impossible. And does anyone feel like they know who is wearing what jersey number is this year?
Yeah, me neither.
There is no precedent for the amount of change undergone by the Virginia Tech football program in 2025.
Rather than fill your inboxes with random guesses, unsupported by the evidence that doesn’t exist, I laid low and observed.
I filtered out the hype (the positive press for running back Marcellous Hawkins arrived just as it became clear that Terion Stewart’s injury was likely to keep him out of the opening contest against South Carolina - color me skeptical), noted what the coaches did and did not say, and kept an eye out for emerging leaders.
The 247 Team Talent Composite ratings should be released this week (last year they dropped on August 27th), and at that point we will start to get a sense of the floor, ceiling, and likely outcome for the 2025 season.
In anticipation of that release, today I will review a list of variables that I believe will have an outsized impact on determining the result of the 50/50 games on Tech’s schedule, which will ultimately swing the fanbase’s perspective on the season.
I have grouped them by their likelihood to have a positive and negative impact on the Hokies’ season.
Factors most likely to have a positive impact
Surprise
It’s been covered ad nauseum in the Techosphere this off-season, but no one knows anything about the formations or personnel groupings the Hokies will use early in the season. That will work to their advantage for the first two to three weeks, and could produce two wins that would have otherwise been losses. Remember, the 2024 Hokies were not a handful of plays from being 7-5. They were a handful of plays from being 9-3 (the last play at Miami and the two overtime losses, both of which Tech led late in the fourth quarter).
Less drop-off from the ones to the twos
The 2024 team had plenty of NFL talent. The problem was that all the pros started, and when they got hurt, or just needed a breather, their backups were too often not up to the task. But wait, you might be thinking, the backups didn’t look that bad. True! But they also did not play much, a telltale sign that the drop-off in performance would have been too great to overcome. That’s how we got Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten both starting against Clemson when, realistically, they were too injured to play. It’s how time and again Xavier Chaplin would get hurt, go to the sideline, and then limp back on to the field a few plays later. Virginia Tech’s offseason strategy in the transfer portal was clearly to load up on depth pieces. I expect snaps to be a lot more spread out this year at nearly every position, save for quarterback. Keeping guys fresher and healthier could net the Hokies one to two additional wins down the stretch in 2025.
Diversity of player types and skills within position groups
One of the reasons we have so little idea about how the Hokies will line up and who is likely to play significant snaps is that there are so many conceivable options. Tech appears to have the players to line up, at least on defense, completely differently from one week to the next. On offense, there are multiple player types at running back and wide receiver, which will enable Philip Montgomery, the new offensive coordinator, to diversify his attack based on the strengths and weaknesses of each opposing defense. The result is that the Hokies could pose “bad” matchups for many teams on the schedule, which would add one extra win.
Factors most likely to have a negative impact
Inexperience along the offensive line
This year’s offensive line features new players, guys playing new positions, and guys with little in the way of prior snaps or previous success. This one variable is a huge red flag. It could potentially cost the Hokies three games that they would have otherwise won.
QB/offensive coordinator fit
I am not convinced that Kyron Drones and Pop Watson, currently numbers one and two on the depth chart at quarterback, are great fits for what Montgomery wants to do on offense. Drones has plenty of arm talent, but he struggles mightily with the deep ball, consistently overthrowing wide open receivers (ironically, the much maligned Grant Wells would have been perfect for this offense). Tyrod Taylor had this same problem early in his career and he learned how to “perfectly” underthrow his receivers, which led to more catches and a lot more pass interference calls against the defense. If Drones has not made similar progress in the offseason, then it could cost the Hokies one to two wins in 2025.
A program on the edge
Brent Pry appears to have made a lot of good hires in the offseason, and the Hokies pulled a number of sneaky good players out of the transfer portal, but Pry has nearly lost the fanbase. A slow start combined with a tough back half of the schedule could doom Pry and usher in wholesale changes in the athletic department. AD Whit Babcock, who is approaching lame duck status, will not be given the opportunity to hire a third head coach. If the fans suspect a coming cascade, they could check out early and turn the vibes around the program from bad to toxic, costing the Hokies at least a couple wins and potentially the ability to hire strong replacements at AD and head football coach.
On balance
Overall, the offseason changes have moved the program in a positive direction.
I do believe the Hokies are due to revert to the mean. From a numbers perspective alone, it is inconceivable the Tech will continue to lose just about every one score game it plays in the Brent Pry era.
Eventually, that stuff evens out (like all the lost fumbles early in Justin Fuente’s tenure).
The team seems to understand what is on the line.
There has been little hype and almost no “noise” since the spring.
Seriously, since when has a Board of Visitors meeting had the ability to net so much coverage in August?
In his presentation, covered widely by the press, Whit Babcock said nothing that the casual fan does not already know.
Yet, the entire fanbase followed it down to the minutest detail because there was no news about the football program.
If we know nothing about the team, what are the odds that South Carolina knows much?
I really want to see the Hokies beat South Carolina because, aside from the obvious rooting interest, I want to know if this team and this staff know how to handle success.
Playing Vanderbilt in week 2 as a 1-0 team would provide that answer.
Pry might need a win over South Carolina to keep his job, but either way, a loss to Vanderbilt in Lane Stadium would seal his fate, even if the move is not made immediately.
The fanbase is so sick of muddling through. It’s time to find out if the folks in the Merryman Center know how to win.