Is the ACC Underrated?
Week 1 expectations say yes
With the transfer portal and the excessive secrecy in today’s college football, there is little applicable data to build a model to set expectations for games.
I pondered this issue all summer, but only in the last few days did I hit on what I believe is a solution worth sharing.
ELO vs. Spread
Two metrics for which we have data are ELO and the game spreads.
ELO is a rating system originally developed to rank chess players. It is a retrospective metric, meaning that it looks backward at who a given team has beaten.
Meanwhile, the spread looks at individual matchups and reflects betting action. If those putting their money on the line suddenly shift in mass toward one team or the other, the spread will reflect that change in sentiment.
To create a baseline expectation, we can plot all the matchups in a given week on a graph that has the spread on the y-axis and the ELO delta on the x-axis.
Overlaying a trend or average line onto the graph creates a line of expectation at each level of ELO delta.
Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina
ACC teams in the chart above appear as either maroon (when the ACC team is home) or orange (when the ACC team is away).
Maroon dots above the dashed line represent games in which Las Vegas believes the ACC team, playing at home, is underrated compared to its opponent (the ELO delta is greater than it should be).
Likewise, orange dots below the line represent games in which the traveling ACC team is underrated.
The Virginia Tech at South Carolina game is the orange dot below the line with a box around it. The Hokies, who are technically the road team despite the neutral venue, have an ELO delta of -108, but are only 8-point underdogs. As the graph shows, the expectation is that the home team with that level of positive ELO delta would be closer to a 10-point favorite.
The Hokies enter week 1 with an ELO of 1598, a bit above the midpoint of 1500. South Carolina, meanwhile, has an ELO of 1706 which is good, perhaps reflective of an 8-4 P4 team with an average strength of schedule, but not the #13 team in the country.
So, if Las Vegas is correct, not only are the Gamecocks not the 13th best team in the country, but they might not even be a top-25 team.
For all the hype about LaNorris Sellers, the sober take may prove accurate. South Carolina plays against teams currently ranked in the top-25 in six of its final seven games.
If the Hokies were to win the game, South Carolina could conceivably struggle to gain bowl eligibility.
Three other matchups involving ACC teams
Overall, ACC teams are overrated in comparison to their competition in only 3 out 12 games if we take weeks 0 and 1 together.
In addition, there are three games in which the ACC team is very underrated compared to its opponent
Notre Dame (ELO = 2173) at Miami (1736)
The Irish are only a 2-point favorite in a game they should be favored to win by 17 if the ELOs for each team are accurate
Georgia Tech (1536) at Colorado (1634)
The Yellow Jackets were a 4-point favorite in a game that the home-standing Buffs should have been favored to win by 10
Georgia Tech won 27-20
Syracuse (1499) at Tennessee (1776)
The Vols are 14-point favorites in a game they should be favored to win by three touchdowns
Ultimately, the results of this weekend’s high profile non-conference games will define the relative strength of the conference.
As play begins, though, those whose money is on the line believe many ACC teams will outperform expectations.