What Happened Against Virginia

Virginia Tech wins a predictably one-sided affair

Saturday’s regular season finale against UVA was the cleanest, most straight forward game Virginia Tech has played in a long time.

APR wreaked havoc in the Wahoo backfield, as expected.

Tech’s cornerbacks locked down on Virginia’s wide receivers, as expected.

And the Hokies were able to move the ball up and down the field with relative ease, as expected.

The real significance of this game, however, was what didn’t happen.

Tech’s slippery QB3

Pop Watson carried the ball 11 times for 48 yards, but some of those rushes came when he scrambled away from pressure.

Still, UVA had its opportunities to rough up Watson.

They failed to do so.

Watson did not take any big hits, whereas Kyron Drones and Collin Schlee seemed to take at least three per game.

Part of that was a result of how Tyler Bowen called the game. Bowen appeared to replace QB powers with triple option RPOs, and Watson showed great comfort in moving horizontally along the line of scrimmage and holding the ball until the very last moment, at which time he would dump it off to an open receiver or tight end.

Even the announcers noted that Watson’s quickness and shiftiness harken back to Tyrod Taylor.

Watson’s ability to escape pressure and keep his eyes down the field paid off with three completions of 40 yards or more.

His style of play just attracts attention, and when the Wahoo safeties got caught peeking into the offensive backfield, good things happened for the Hokies.

Finally, Watson did a nice job of underthrowing his deep passes, which gave the receivers a chance to make a play on the ball.

It also can, and did, elicit pass interference calls.

Colandrea goes MIA

Tony Elliott’s decision to sit Anthony Colandrea, who had started all year at quarterback for Virginia, in favor of Tony Muskett was a head scratcher.

Maybe Elliott already knew Colandrea intended to enter the transfer portal, or maybe he really believed that Muskett gave the Hoos the best chance of winning the game.

Regardless, this one decision revealed the still yawning gap between the two programs.

As mentioned in Friday’s preview, Watson was the more sought after of the 2023 QB recruits, but Colandrea had a lot more college level game experience.

Colandrea’s snaps, however, came long before he was actually ready to play at the power conference level.

Watson, meanwhile, has spent his first two years at Virginia Tech getting stronger and learning the offense.

Even though he was pressed into action due to injuries to Drones and Schlee, he proved that he was ready to play.

So, the Hokies are poised to enter the offseason with potentially two starting caliber quarterbacks (Schlee is playing out his final collegiate season), while UVA has will have none (Muskett has exhausted his eligibility).

Other highlights and lowlights

This game was not as close as the score indicates - and the score says it was a blowout.

Tech’s post-game win probability was 99.7%. The main driver there was Tech’s enormous advantage in EPA/play on passing plays:

• Virginia Tech: 0.37

• Virginia: -0.05

Beyond that, Tech held a small advantage in most of the other key advanced stats.

One stat in which UVA was actually better was offensive stuff rate allowed. Virginia’s rate was 18%, about the average (19%) for Virginia Tech’s opponents this season.

Tech, on the other hand, allowed a whopping 24% of their runs to be stuffed. And the Hokies still ran for over 200 yards, so what gives?

Against quality opponents, many stuffed runs result in stalled drives. And stalled drives result in losses by one score or less.

Tech got away with it on Saturday, but the team’s high stuff rate allowed (18% entering Saturday’s game) has contributed to its very pedestrian success rate (40%), which is major hidden factor in the Hokies’ disappointing 6-6 record.

On defense, APR notched three more sacks, which barely merits mention.

Of course, APR has had a great season rushing the quarterback, but Virginia’s line was so weak that anything less than a multi-sack night would have been a real disappointment.

Back in the deep secondary, Jaylen Jones ended his regular season career in a strong fashion, grading out more than 10 points above baseline, as per PFF.

Mose Phillips, however, struggled once again, and the question will surely be asked by Brent Pry and his coaches, is Phillips the long-term answer at strong safety?

An answer could come soon enough via the transfer portal.