Pop Gets His Tryout
Hokies vs. Hoos features battle between 2023 QB commits
After a 24-game wait, Pop Watson will finally get his opportunity to be Virginia Tech’s starting quarterback when the Hokies welcome the rival Virginia Cavaliers into Lane Stadium on Saturday night.
On the one hand, this game can be viewed as a battle between 5-6 teams seeking bowl eligibility, with the Cavaliers featuring a two-year starter behind center and the Hokies down to their third-string quarterback.
On the other hand, nearly every advanced metric favors the Hokies, and Watson, who was a higher rated recruit than UVA’s Anthony Colandrea (247Sports composite #40 QB in the class of 2023 vs. #72), only lacks experience because the Hokies have had the stronger quarterback room in recent years.
There are other storylines, though, and before the final whistle blows, they will have their say on the ultimate outcome.
The teams in a nutshell
The Wahoos are not heinous on either side of the ball. Indeed, Tony Elliott is slowly developing pockets of competence.
Every now and then, when the various bright spots - running back, one receiver, the secondary - come into alignment, the result can be half decent football.
But the good news for the Hokies is that these periods seldom span the duration of a football game.
The bad news is that they don’t have to.
If the NCAA adopted a new rule that retroactively banned all 2024 results from the third quarter of games, the Hokies might be a playoff team.
As it is, that one quarter has decided the last five Hokie losses:
Rutgers outscored Virginia Tech 7-0 in the third quarter (26-23 final)
Miami 7-3 (38-34)
Syracuse 15-7 (38-31, OT)
Clemson 14-0 (24-14)
Duke 10-0 (31-28)
Combined, in their last five losses the Hokies have been outscored 53-10 in the third quarter. Ouch!
The Hokies have done well this year in limiting points per opportunity, as their opponents only average 2.8 points per trip inside the Virginia Tech 40-yard line.
That number would be even lower if not for all the touchdowns allowed in the third quarter of these losses.
Consider the effect on the final score if just one third-quarter touchdown were switched to a field goal:
Virginia Tech beats Rutgers 23-22
Virginia Tech and Miami go to overtime tied at 34
Virginia Tech beats Syracuse 31-27 in regulation
Clemson beats Virginia Tech 20-14
Virginia Tech beats Duke 28-27
Of course, this is just a hypothetical and the fourth quarters of these games would have played out differently. However, it is instructive in that it shows just how close the Hokies are to being 9-2, 6-1 (if they could have beaten Miami in a hypothetical overtime), and in the thick of the conference and playoff race.
Five out of Virginia Tech’s six losses are by one score or less, and two came in overtime.
Meanwhile, five out of Virginia’s six losses were by two touchdowns or more.
So, the Hokies are either going to win big, or the Cavaliers will win a squeaker, leading the Virginia Tech fanbase to lose its collective mind.
When the Hokies have the ball
Virginia has weaknesses in all three levels of its defense.
Expect Tyler Bowen to attack on the ground between the tackles, where the interior of the Hokies line holds a distinct advantage.
Tech should be able to keep things pretty simple in the passing game, mixing crosses to Jaylin Lane with quick outs and comebacks to the wideouts.
Look for Watson to target whichever receiver is matched up against Jam Jackson (likely Da’Quan Felton), who at 6’2” has the size, but not the skill, to slow Tech’s receivers.
The Wahoos have not shown anything like Duke’s capability to generate a pass rush or stymie a rushing game. If you’re Pop Watson, you have to like your chances to play well.
If there is one concern for the Hokies, it’s the weather - it is forecasted to be really cold.
Virginia Tech’s receivers have already dropped a ton of passes. If they drop a bunch more on Saturday night, Peter Moore is going to be on the field a lot, and the score is going to be tight.
When Virginia has the ball
After a sub-par game at Duke, J.C. Price should have his defensive line raring to go against Virginia.
As Tech fans all know, Price harbors a special hatred for the Wahoos.
Motivation aside, Tech’s defensive line is far superior to the Virginia offensive line.
Not helping Virginia’s cause are injuries to their top two running backs. If Kobe Pace can go, he will likely be limited.
Virginia has a surprisingly low stuff rate allowed (12%), but the Hokies stuff their opponents at a 19% rate, and the matchups all favor Tech.
The Wahoos will surely try to isolate Malachi Fields against one of Tech’s safeties and hope to complete a few deep passes down the middle of the field. That will require the line to protect Colandrea long enough for the play to develop.
Translation: APR is going to have to opportunities to add to his sack total. It should not be a surprise if he gets home more than once.
The X-factor: more injuries
Both teams are weighed down with injuries to key players. One or two more for either team would likely be the deciding factor in the game.
Just imagine Bhayshul Tuten or Pop Watson rolling an ankle in the first quarter. Can you spell D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R?
If Pace is too beat up to play at a high level, the Wahoos will be completely one dimensional. Pair that with an offensive line that cannot pass block, and factor in a night crowd at Lane Stadium, and you’ve got all the fixings for a Virginia Tech blowout victory.
So, in the end, the game plan for Virginia Tech is pretty simple. Keep your quarterback and running back upright, and you will probably win.
However, if it were that easy, Tech would have a much better record than it does.