Virginia Tech Seeks to Capitalize on Golden Opportunity
Why the Hokies are favored to beat Cal, and what is likely to happen
It seems a bit nuts that a 2-5 football team that fired its coach a month ago and has been blasted at home at night multiple times is favored to beat a 5-2 football team with a stable coaching situation.
Surprisingly, though, when we dig into the advanced stats and layer in the caveats, the -6.5 point line makes perfect sense.
The Hokies, despite their record, enter the game with an ELO advantage of 11 points. ELO is all about the results of each game and the quality of the opponent at the time.
Although Tech has lost five games already this season, only the Wake Forest loss was particularly bad in ELO terms. The Hokies really should have won that game. It took an incredible amount of bone-headed, drive-extending penalties to lose it.
Contrast that with Cal, whose best win was over Minnesota and whose losses include a shocking 34-0 defeat at the hands of mighty San Diego State University and a 45-21 drubbing by Duke. Both of these games were played in the state of California, so traveling to the East Coast was not an issue.
However, travel will be an issue Friday night.
Cal, working on a slightly shortened week, is coming off a 21-18 win over lowly North Carolina. This will be the second cross-country trip for the Golden Bears, who defeated Boston College in Chestnut Hill 28-24 a few weeks back.
Boston College is horrendous.
Throw in an extra week of prep for the Hokies, including some presumed healing among the myriad injured players, and one does not need to squint to see why Tech is favored to win the game.
But win by nearly a touchdown? If you think that seems a bit much, read on. The Hokies have some favorable matchups in this game.
When Virginia Tech has the ball
Cal’s defense has been pretty good this season, Even in the blowout loss to SDSU, the Bears only allowed 321 yards.
In the two games Cal has lost, the opposing quarterback was very efficient:
Jayden Denegal (SDSU): 15/18, 186 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
Darien Mensah (Duke): 22/30, 265 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
In contrast, Cal’s freshman quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, threw only one touchdown opposite five interceptions in those two games.
If Kyron Drones is efficient and does not give the ball away, the Hokies should win the game.
Cal has been pretty good against the run, but again, the bears have not faced strong competition.
The most telling stat is the 14.6% stuff rate the Cal defense has put up this year. This is not a team that plays in the backfield.
Translation: the Tech offensive line, with its 18.3% stuff rate allowed, actually stands a chance.
BC and UNC combined to average 21 points scored in their losses to Cal. Playing at home at night with an extra week to prepare, the Hokies should be good for at least 24 points, if not 28.
When Cal has the ball
The Golden Bears do not have a good offense. Their overall EPA/play is 62.5% that of Virginia Tech’s offense. And Virginia Tech’s offense is…limited.
Cal struggles mightily to run the ball (0.00 EPA/run). Tech’s defense has been terrible against the run (0.51 EPA/run allowed). Something has to give.
Don’t expect the Tech defense to totally shut down the run, but Cal will have to throw to win, and that will be tough.
Cal’s EPA/pass matches that of Virginia Tech’s offense at 0.18. Can you imagine the Hokies having to throw to win?
They’d lose!
It is no surprise that with such a bad running game Cal struggles to stay on schedule (40.5% success rate). Here, they will encounter a pliable Tech defense (45.1% success rate allowed), but considering that Bears allow a 19.4% stuff rate and their quarterback has struggled of late, it is hard to imagine them going up and down the field on Tech.
And should Cal move the ball some, they still have not demonstrated an ability to finish drives with touchdowns. On the year, the Bears are averaging 3.63 points per trip inside the opponents’ 40-yard line.
Once again, that is an unadjusted advanced stat accumulated against a very weak schedule.
Final thoughts
Ok, so the line makes sense. Does it mean anything?
The Hokies have been chronically overrated dating back to…the Fuente era? Longer?
If nothing else, this should be a good game. Nothing in the numbers suggests a blowout in either direction.
Tech has a really good chance to pick up a third win, which would give everyone around the program some hope entering November, when the schedule toughens up.
Not to say that the schedule has been easy. South Carolina’s regression was predictable, but Vanderbilt is legit (that week 2 loss doesn’t look as bad anymore). The rest of Tech’s opponents have been between decent (ODU and NC State) and excellent (Georgia Tech).
This Tech team has been through a lot in the last two months. The Hokies are both battle hardened and well rested. And this game has been penciled in as a win since before the season started.
If not now, when?