From the opening three plays of the game for Tech’s offense this past Saturday, it was clear that the coaches perceived NC State to be the stronger team. The tell was in the play calling.
In the opening 3 offensive plays against FSU, Louisville, and NC State, all games that Tech lost, the Hokies ran seven conservative plays, five of which were screens (two were against the Wolfpack).
In the opening 3 plays against Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Boston College, games Tech won, the Hokies ran five conservative plays, only one of which was a screen.
Speaking of perceived strength, take a look at the below chart. If the Hokies lose on Saturday, can they really lay claim to being the flagship program in the state?
Finally, it’s been a rollercoaster ride of a season from an emotions standpoint, but in analytics-land, things have actually been pretty smooth from start to finish. I close out the episode with some quotes from past articles about the team’s outlook.
Four wins was always the floor, seven the ceiling, and five to six the most likely outcome. Low and behold, that’s where Tech finds itself entering the final game of the regular season.
