The Pending Announcement Nobody is Talking About

Virginia Tech's QB1 has announced his return, but mum is the word on QB2

First thing’s first, in a recent article I hypothesized that players who were getting “cut” but who were otherwise on good terms with the coaches would be allowed to play in the bowl game.

Reporting by Andy Bitter at TechSideline, which I missed at the time, has cornerback Derrick Canteen, who is definitely not being shown the door, slated to play in the Military Bowl.

So, I will revise my observation to say that there is a strong association between being “cut” and being allowed to play in the bowl game, but it is not an absolute thing.

Alright, with that out of the way, let’s get on with the show.

One last announcement

With Bhayshul Tuten’s announcement that he will return next season, the Hokies will have all their major pieces back in 2024. However, there is one important piece who has been very quiet: backup quarterback Grant Wells.

What, you say, that guy? Who cares, we’ve got Kyron!

Oh, I care, and here’s why.

Since 2018, Virginia Tech’s opening game starting quarterback has averaged 368 snaps per season compared to 411 for his primary backup.

The saving grace has been that the backups have played just as well as the starters, with only 0.2 points separating the two in overall PFF offensive grade (69.3 for the starters and 69.1 for the backups).

Drones, at 6’2” and 237 lbs. is a big, strong guy, but he has carried the ball 146 times for 642 yards this season. He will likely have a similar workload on the ground next season, which increases his injury risk.

The Hokies have the potential to be a very good team in 2024, and if there were such a thing as wins above replacement in football, the #2 player on the roster, behind Drones, is likely Wells.

How much is Grant Wells worth?

First, in terms of on-field play, Wells is clearly way ahead of Pop Watson, the #3 QB. Watson is an exciting player, but he still needs to add mass and develop in the system.

If needed, Watson is unlikely to be ready to perform at a level comparable to Drones in 2024. The drop-off from Drones to Wells is much less steep than it is from Wells to Watson.

Indeed, Grant Wells would probably start at half the schools in the new, expanded ACC. So, getting him to return for another year, as the backup, would be a major coup for Brent Pry & Co.

On3 has a great NIL Valuation tool. Is it accurate? Probably not. Is it useful? Most definitely.

The list of players on whom On3 has data is not comprehensive. Indeed, neither Drones nor Wells is included, so in the case of the latter, we have to look to other quarterbacks on his level.

Think of this list like the “comps” that a home appraiser would consider to help determine your home’s market value. These quarterbacks, either through experience, reputation, or status, are in the same neighborhood as Grant Wells.

Wells was voted a captain by his teammates in 2023 and has thrown for more than 8,000 yards in his college career.

Given that he would return as QB2 (not in an open competition), his role would be most similar to Garrett Nussmeier’s and Tate Rodemaker’s in 2023. On the open market, he would probably generate interest similar to JT Daniels.

In short, Wells is a known and proven commodity; a surefire G5 starter and possibly a lower tier P5 starter.

That would put his value somewhere around $130k. In return, the Hokies would secure one of the best backup quarterbacks in college football.

Next year would be the third year in Tyler Bowen’s system for Wells. Keeping in mind that in four of the last six seasons, the QB that entered the season as the backup ended up playing more snaps than the starter, that would be a heck of an insurance policy for a team whose 2024 ceiling might brush up against playoff contention.

Likely outcome

Wells is married and will turn 24 next year. He has been in college since 2019. He might be ready to just get on with his life after football. (Given that he has not entered the portal, at this point, transferring appears to be off the table.)

If that were the case, he would likely take a significant pay cut. Five years of on-field experience does, and always will, correlate with zero years of off-field experience.

For argument’s sake, let’s say he would make 50% less, and that’s probably on the conservative end. It could be a lot more.

If he came back, there is a 33% chance he would just carry a clipboard and cash checks. But recent history has not been kind to starting quarterbacks at Virginia Tech, something Wells knows all too…well.

There is a good chance he would be called on to play significant snaps for a team loaded with skill position talent that has high expectations.

Certainly there are worse situations in life that one can find oneself in.

And what of Pop Watson, the current QB3? Drones has two more years of eligibility, so if Watson covets QB1 status in Blacksburg (as he should), the most likely timeline is 2026, when he would be a redshirt junior.

By that time, he should be ready to step in and put on a show. But he is going to need the intervening years to get stronger, develop as a passer, and master the system.

Without Grant Wells, the Hokies could easily get FSU’d next season. With him, that would be much less likely.