Evaluations, NIL, and the Transfer Portal

What the data tell us about how Pry & Co. operationalize player evaluations to manage the VT roster

The number of portal entrants nationwide ramped up as the regular season came to a close. It has now reached a frenzied pace.

For the first time since the portal became a thing, we are getting clean (albeit limited) data out of the Virginia Tech football program about the interplay between player evaluation, NIL, and how the coaching staff manages the roster.

Why has it taken so long? Let us count the ways:

• ‘18-’19 - the portal launches, but it is new and haphazard (see: the Hendon Hooker saga - he’s enters the portal, Braxton Burmeister transfers to VT, Knox Kadum signs with VT, Hooker returns to VT)

• ‘19-’20 - more activity, but moves are driven mostly by playing time and novelty, Covid arrives and spring ball is canceled

• ‘20-’21 - following the Covid season people are frustrated and looking to change anything they can control in their lives, Fuente is on the hot seat

• ‘21-’22 - first year of NIL, collectives launch, Fuente fired and Pry hired, player moves largely driven by coaching change

• ‘22-’23 - after year 1 of the Pry era the coaching staff actively seeks to turn over the roster with focus on acquisition at the skill positions

The Hokies went 6-6 in 2023, with an appearance in the Military Bowl upcoming. The program has momentum, and while the Kyron Drones offense is different than the one Grant Wells ran, the intent was always to be a run-first team capable of explosive plays both on the ground and through the air.

This is all to say that there is finally stability inside and outside the football program. And with stability, the moves this portal season are much easier to classify and evaluate.

How this works

Up front, I want to state that I am not a reporter, and I do not have any inside sources. However, from studying the available data points, here is what I believe happens to set the portal in motion.

Starting around the beginning of November, the coaching staff looks at their player evaluations and buckets the players into groups such as:

• Must keep

• Nice to keep

• Cut

The Must Keep group is allotted a significant share of the total NIL pot. These players will receive handsome raises. This group likely totals between 5 and 10 players, and there may be a sliding scale that gets applied, either by the coaches or the collectives when considering deal size (perhaps subgroups).

The Nice to Keep group is allotted the remainder of the NIL money. This share likely totals no more than 33% of the total, and probably less. It is split among all the returning contributors who the coaches would like to see return, but who are replaceable.

The Cut group, obviously, receives nothing.

Immediately following the final regular season game, Pry sits down with each player to evaluate that player’s performance and future with the program.

When a player is slated to be cut, he is not kicked off the team. Rather, he is gently shown the door, with a promise to help that player find a new opportunity where the player can get more playing time.

Concurrently, the collectives meet with the Must Keep and Nice to Keep players.

Between the talk with Pry and the financial offers presented by the collectives, the players are able to gauge their relative priority status and value within the program.

If they are satisfied with both, then they stay. If not, then they enter the portal.

Grouping the portal entrants

At this point, the 2023 Virginia Tech portal entrants appear to fall into one of three categories:

1. Bad fit culturally

2. Want/need more playing time

3. Cuts

Let’s drill down on each group.