Quiet Evolution in Transfer Signees Could Have Major Impact for Hokies in 2024

As Pry & Co. have shifted from acquiring players at their peak to those with untapped potential, Hokies have seen better on-field returns

According to the 247Sports ratings, Virginia Tech’s 2024 transfer portal class is about the same as the other two classes in the Brent Pry era.

That masks a major, and thus far under-reported, evolution in the type of talent the Hokies are now attracting on the open market.

Before I break down the numbers, first let’s run through the four different types of transfers:

1. Highly rated as a prospect and highly rated as a transfer (think Caleb Williams, former Oklahoma and USC quarterback, and the #1 pick this year’s NFL Draft)

2. Highly rated as a prospect, but lower rated as a transfer (Antwaun Powell-Ryland)

3. Rated low as a prospect, but higher rated as a transfer (Derrick Canteen)

4. Rated low as a prospect and low as a transfer (Jason Brown)

You will note that I used a non-Hokie example for group #1 because Tech has yet to land a highly rated transfer who was also a highly rated prospect. But with the way things are trending, that could happen as soon as next offseason.

Selling more than a vision

A 7-6 record is not typically cause for celebration in Blacksburg, but the fanbase was nonetheless energized by the team’s play in 2023.

Why?

More than racking up convincing wins over middling (at best) opponents, I would argue that what fans reacted to most was the increasing frequency of elite level play by the Hokies:

• A mobile quarterback who was filling up highlight reels

• A dynamic running back who was electric in the open field

• Multiple threats in the receiving game

• A defensive line that lived in the backfield

• Special teams units that consistently outclassed the opponent

Hokie fans and pundits were not the only people taking notice. Rather than just selling a vision, as the staff did prior to the 2022 and 2023 seasons, in 2024 Pry & Co. could turn on the highlights and show the vision coming to fruition.

The results in terms of player acquisition, though they require a bit of quantitative digging, are meaningful.

Transfer portal ratings alone hide the evolution of talent the Hokies are acquiring under Brent Pry.

Virginia Tech has won a lot of games by identifying and developing what former Baltimore Orioles General Manager Dan Duquette referred to as undervalued commodities; players whose on-field performance is greater than the cost of acquisition + direct compensation.

Nationwide, this group includes plenty of diamonds in the rough who will go on to have long NFL careers. More often than not, though, these players have lower ceilings, which is why they were not heavily recruited coming out of high school.

Transfer portal acquisitions have improved from, on average, two-star players coming out of high school in 2022 to high-three star players in 2024.

At Virginia Tech, the increase in high school rating among transfers is masked somewhat by four unrated players in the 2023 class. If we defaulted those players to a 75 rating, the cumulative rating for that class would be 81.3.

And that makes the comparison to the 2024 class, with its average rating of 88.3, all the more stark.

Possible impact on team performance

The 247Sports ratings are an indication of the player’s demand on the open market. A higher rating does not guarantee success, but players that are more in demand tend to outperform those for whom demand is lower.

So, why might it be a good idea to pursue transfers who were highly rated as high school prospects, but who are lower rated as transfers?

1. Higher athletic ceiling

2. Better fit (culture, staff, scheme, location) can unlock full player potential

3. Can help improve high school recruiting

Due diligence, however, is very important because, quantitatively at least, we’re talking about players who have underachieved in college. Major risks include:

1. Injuries that are actually chronic (or there other issues that keep the player off the field)

2. Still a tweener, even with a better system fit

3. Overrated coming out of high school

4. Failure to progress is mental (doesn’t pick up the finer nuances of the game) or emotional (lacks maturity or discipline)

That leaves us with the following question: Is the difference between transfer and high school rating predictive of the likelihood that a player will have an impact on the field for Virginia Tech?

To answer this question I tagged each incoming transfer in Pry’s first two transfer classes as either having an impact or not. I then took the average of the rating difference for each of the two groups (the sample size is too small to play with true statistics).

The result is that players who did not have an impact averaged a 6.5 point higher transfer rating, compared to just 2.9 for those that did have an impact on the team.

The average difference in ratings in the 2022 class was 5.3. For the 2023 class it was 2.4.

In contrast, the average difference for incoming 2024 transfers is -1.4, meaning that as a group, they had a higher high school rating.

If the results from our small sample size are a true indication of on-field impact, Tech fans might be pleasantly surprised at just how well these new Hokies will perform.