Hokies Prep for a Nooner in Chestnut Hill
It's like the old Big East days, except now Virginia Tech is not the only team with a mobile quarterback
It is not often that I disagree with Chris Coleman of Techsideline. For coverage of Virginia Tech football, I consider that entire team the gold standard. Still, there is a disagreement on numbers that I want to lead with.
During their preview podcast this week, the guys, and Chris in particular, said that Boston College’s passing defense was the strength of that unit. To support that statement, he cited a number of conventional statistics.
Those conventional stats look at volume, which I believe is misleading. Just because a team does not throw it much, does not mean the team cannot throw it, or was not successful the few times that it did so.
That is the story told by the advanced statistics this week. When it comes to passing success (basically, the ability to stay ahead of the chains) and passing explosiveness (how much yardage is gained on successful plays), the Boston College defense is outright bad.
Consider Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer’s lines against both teams this year:
Boston College: 18/21 for 388 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs
Virginia Tech: 11/12 for 141 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs
Plummer played very well in both games, but Boston College offered basically no resistance. Plummer’s 18.5 yards per attempt (ypa) was ludicrous. In comparison, the 11.8 ypa he put up against the Hokies was more in line with a typical dominant performance.
But it hasn’t just been good teams that have found success throwing on Boston College. Take a look at how how three of BC’s weaker opponents fared through the air:
Holy Cross: 10/15, 130 yards, 8.7 ypa
Virginia: 22/34. 247 yards, 7.3 ypa
Army: 10/13. 105 yards, 8.1 ypa
And in case you are wondering, those three teams combined to throw four touchdowns opposite one interception.
Again, the total yards are misleading because the opponents did not throw much. But any pass defense that allows Holy Cross, Army and UVA to complete 68% of their passes is, in my or any other book, a bad one.
Now, that is not to say that BC’s pass defense is always heinous. Syracuse, with a backup QB, completed just 7 of 17 passes for 0 TDs and 4 INTS. Haynes King of Georgia Tech also had a rough game against the Eagles.
Overall, though, this is a defense that average to bad teams have generally been able to throw on. And I expect Kryon Drones to have a very efficient day through the air.
How to attack the BC defense
The offensive game plan for the Hokies will probably look a lot like what they did against Pittsburgh: run to set up deep throws.
When the Hokies throw, expect them to test the deep middle of the field, where the BC safeties have been very average (at best) this year.
Tyler Bowen will also probably try to isolate his best, and quickest, players in space.
Boston College’s starting defense has earned high PFF coverage grades this year, but those numbers in combination with the poor efficiency numbers suggest a propensity to bust coverage (mental errors that are difficult to pin on any one player) and a lack of range (physical limitations). Bowen will likely attempt to probe both of these weaknesses.
A significant amount of that probing will likely be done on playaction, as the Hokies should be able to consistently run on the Eagles’ defense.
Again, note the high rushing success rate (44%) allowed. It’s not so much that the Hokies will gash BC on the ground as it is that four and five-yard runs should be there all day.
Masking weaknesses - the VT defense
Word on the street is that BC is beat up at multiple positions. I’m not sure how much stock to put into any of that, given all the secrecy these days around injuries.
(Remember the good ole days, when any coach in America would not hesitate to tell the media that So-and-So sprained his ankle the week before and would be out for three to four weeks. Ah, transparency, how we miss thee!)
The BC offense is built around quarterback Thomas Catellanos. He is one of the guys rumored to be nursing an injury. The scrambling type, BC has leaned on Catellanos’s running ability way too much this year.
Regardless of his health, though, as a quarterback, he is not ideally suited to attack Tech’s defensive soft underbelly, which is right up the middle.
That’s where teams with good running backs have discovered endless fountains of success against the Hokies. The Eagles have a few ok-ish running backs, but most of them are (supposedly) injured to some degree.
With weaknesses at center and left guard, BC blockers will probably struggle with the Tech defensive tackles. Expect Alan Tisdale to play a decent game at Mike, as he will probably face less interference from linemen getting to the second level than has been the norm.
BC’s passing game is the football version of former MLB slugger Adam Dunn - K, K, HR, K. The Eagles are not efficient throwing the ball and generally struggle to stay on schedule. However, when defenses get too caught up in stopping the run, BC is able to strike with a big play through the air.
The Hokies will need to remain extremely disciplined in the secondary. That means not biting on playaction or double moves.
Look for Chris Marve to focus the pass rush on collapsing the pocket, rather than pressuring the edges. Pressure right up the gut is harder to scramble out of, and Castellanos runs are BC’s best “pass plays”.
Final thoughts
For most of the season, Tech’s last three games have looked very winnable.
Now we find Boston College and NC State both sitting there with 6-3 records and UVA playing teams close. Where is the cakewalk we were promised?
Tech needs to win two of its final three games to gain bowl eligibility, and that is still a reasonable goal. In fact, a win over BC should have everyone feeling pretty good about the Hokies’ chances.
And, road game or not, Tech really should win this weekend. BC is as good a matchup for the Hokies as Louisville was bad.
If one were to group Tech’s opponents into two buckets, those the Hokies have beaten and those they have lost to, Boston College looks a lot like the teams Tech has beaten. The mobile QB and road environment are just window dressing.
I sent yesterday’s paid article out only to paid subscribers, rather than to everyone with a preview of the article. That contrasts with my previous practice of sending out a preview to free subscribers. After chewing on it for a day, I figured I’d put it to a vote.