First Half Report Card

Similar top line results from Q1, but from a different team in many respects

Before we get into the first half report card, as refresher, here is the first quarter report card:

The first quarter grade wasn’t awful overall, but the trend was downward. Rock bottom did not arrive until week four at Marshall.

The two ACC games will likely end up a net positive for the Hokies, numerically, as they dominated current #53 Pitt (over-rated much?) and hung around for a while against current #15 Florida St.

State of the team

With three more games of data, we see a remarkably similar team from 40,000 feet. However, when we drill down a level, we find a team that has changed on offense and evolved on defense.

Let’s break it down by quadrant:

• Passing Offense - The passing game numbers have declined significantly as the share of snaps taken by Kyron Drones has increased and opposing defenses have stiffened. The biggest issue is the sharp decline in success rate. DB Havoc has become a bigger issue of late as well, although the Hokies are still in the upper half of FBS.

• Rushing Offense - The numbers still are not good, but they are a lot better than they were after three games. The one number that is worse: front seven havoc. As the Hokies have shifted toward a more run heavy account, they have put the ball on the ground more.

• Passing Defense - Success has improved, but explosiveness has gotten worse: the Hokies have a true break-but-don’t-bend pass defense in 2023. Of course, the passing defense doesn’t get challenged that much…

• Rushing Defense - Tech has moved up 20 spots in success, but declined 61 in rushing explosiveness. It’s not just that the bad run fits continue. It’s also the price that the Hokies pay on these plays. They are going for 60-80 yards, not just 30.

At 2-4, the Hokies are nominally on pace to finish 4-8. However, based on historical SP+ figures, the 2023 team fits best in the five win category (for a refresher, check out this article from over the summer).

Seven wins remains an outside possibility this year, but getting there would require significant, likely impossible, improvement from the defense (~17 percentage points) as well strong improvement from the offense (~8 percentage points).

Six wins will require a lot more offense. Assuming the defense continues to outplay the historical average for six-win Hokie teams, the offense would need to engineer a roughly 25 percentage point increase in SP+. The back half of the schedule is easier on paper, but that is still a very tall order.

Five wins is the most likely outcome, but four is possible. Historically, four-win Tech teams have been average on offense and terrible on defense. This year it would be the opposite, but both units would have to play much worse down the stretch than they have so far in order to fit neatly in the four-win group.

With a #76 ranking in the SP+, the Hokies are not far off from where the last ACC team to earn bowl eligibility typically finishes.

An overall record of 5-7 would mean the Hokies went 4-4 in the ACC. Not bad for the second year of a complete rebuild.

So, if you were an oddsmaker, you would definitely set the number of overall wins at an over/under of 5.5.

Continuing yesterday’s comparison to FSU, in 2021, Mike Norvell’s second year in Tallahassee, the Seminoles also went 5-7 overall and 4-4 in conference.

Florida St. lost to Jacksonville St. in week two after a narrow loss to Notre Dame in their first game. So, if you thought losing to Marshall and Rutgers was bad…

Finally, FSU started that season 0-4 before winning two games to finish 2-4 in the first half of the season.

Readers’ perspective

I sent out a poll on Monday and as is typically the case, the results are fascinating. While they probably are a fair representation of Hokie Analytics readers, I would caution against extrapolating beyond that, for example to the fanbase as a whole

Seventy-nine percent of respondents are Virginia Tech alums, while 14% never attended and 7% did attend, but did not graduate.

A plurality (46%) believe the program’s ceiling is a top 10 team nationally. Thirty-one percent believe the ceiling is a top 25 team, while 23% said the ceiling was a National Champion.

Seventy-seven percent of respondents believe Brent Pry can get Tech to its ceiling as a program, regardless of what they believe that ceiling to be.

Brent Pry’s approval numbers are as follows:

• 39% approve (8% strongly)

• 23% disapprove (0% strongly)

• 38% are neutral

Respondents were more critical of the two coordinators.

Offensive Coordinator Tyler Bowen is underwater at 15% approving and 38% disapproving. Again, a very high proportion of responses were neutral (46%), meaning he still has an opportunity to win over a good chunk of people.

Defensive Coordinator Chris Marve had numbers similar to Bowen’s. Seventeen percent approve and 33% disapprove.

Forty-six percent of respondents think the Hokies will finish the regular season with five wins, while 31% think Tech will win six and gain bowl eligibility. Fifteen percent chose four wins, and 8% think Tech will win less than four.

Given the choice between Kyron Drones and a healthy Grant Wells, every respondent chose Drones.

By far, the most desired improvement is improved run fits, which was the choice of 54% of respondents. No other option garnered even 20%.

Finally, given the choice of which position should be the top target in the transfer portal after the season, 46% chose offensive tackle and 31% chose defensive tackle.

Given the frustration over all the big runs allowed to opposing backs, it was surprising that only 15% selected middle linebacker. The remaining 8% selected quarterback.

Looking forward to Q3

The third quarter of the season will likely determine the Hokies’ bowl fate. The team needs to win at least one game to have a chance to finish with an even 6-6 record. Winning two would go a long way toward improving Tech’s postseason odds.

On paper the schedule looks formidable, but two of the three games are at home, and Wake Forest and Syracuse have been trending downward in recent weeks.

• vs. SP+ #51 Wake Forest (3-2)

• vs. SP+ #38 Syracuse (4-2)

• at SP+ #20 Louisville (6-0)

The Hokies have a golden opportunity to even their record before hitting the road to play Louisville. This weekend’s game against Wake Forest will set the tone for the remainder of the season.