What it Takes
Prognosticators expect 5 to 7 Hokie wins in 2023; historical SP+ ratings suggest more are possible
In addition to hot, muggy weather, the second half of July brings with it a host of college football preview magazines, media days, predictions, and the beginnings of the hype machine.
Today I am going to zero in on predictions and, specifically, what it is going to take for the Hokies to win X amount of games in 2023. In addition, I will present data that aim to contextualize the likelihood of Tech ending up in various win brackets.
The SP+ dataset used in this analysis dates back to 1970. Though it excludes the 2020 Covid season, 52 seasons sufficient to detect patterns and draw conclusions.
The key metrics in this article are described in terms of percentiles. A team in the 40th percentile has a higher rating in that metric than 40% of FBS teams. Running the analysis in terms of percentiles allows us to normalize performance across years, as the total number teams has not remained constant.
6 wins - bowl eligibility
Most prognosticators predict the Hokies will win somewhere between five and seven games in 2023. The dividing line between bowl eligibility and spending a second straight season home for the holidays is crystal clear:
Offensive SP+ Percentile > 50%; and
Defensive SP+ Percentile > 50%
Ok, no big surprise there. But let us now dig a little deeper.
Traditionally, Tech has been much better on defense than it has on offense. However, in the years in which the Hokies win precisely six games, they tend to be middling on both sides of the ball.
If, in late September, the Hokies are hanging around the 55th to 60 percentile in SP+ on both offense and defense, we are likely looking at a 6-6 regular season and a lower tier, pre-Christmas bowl.
Given last year’s disaster, I suspect most fans would take such an outcome, but fandom being what it is, most would be left wanting.
7 to 9 wins - the difference between good and great
Historically, Virginia Tech teams that win between seven and nine games average in the 75th to 80th percentile in SP+ Defense Percentile. The difference in win total is all determined by the offense.
Seven-win Tech teams are generally great on defense (80th percentile) and very bad on offense (37th percentile). In fact, only teams that win three games have averaged a lower SP+ Offense Percentile.
Eight-win teams feature nearly the exact same prowess on defense (79th percentile) and a mid-pack offense (49th percentile).
Bumping the SP+ Offense Percentile up to 57th has generally been enough to win nine games, if the defense is in the top quartile of FBS (76th percentile).
10-11 wins - from excellent to elite
Increasing the win total from 9 to 10 requires notable improvement on both sides of the ball. Double digit wins, in general, correlate with a defense that hovers around the 90th percentile. The difference between 10 and 11 wins comes down to offense.
A good offense (65th percentile) paired with an elite defense usually yields 10 wins, while an excellent offense (82nd percentile) with that same defense has historically generated 11 wins.
From the baseline, upward?
With a clear understanding of the metrics Tech needs to hit in order to hit various win goals, let’s now move on to what it will take to close the gap between the 2022 season and where the team seeks to go.
Last year, Tech was in the 6th percentile in Offensive SP+ and the 70th percentile in Defensive SP+.
The Hokies played defense commensurate with a bowl bound team. If Chris Marve and his defensive staff can increase their SP+ rating 5 to 10 percentile points, the Hokies would elevate their ceiling from six to nine wins.
On offense, there is just a tad more work to be done.
That said, looking strictly at the numbers, if the Hokies could have swapped in an average Scot Loeffler offense (2013-2015), the 2022 team likely would have finished the regular season with a 6-5 record - a win over ODU, and two wins out of Miami, NC State, and Georgia Tech.
An average Brad Cornelsen offense paired with the the 2022 defense would have been comfortably bowl bound, with wins over all four aforementioned opponents as well as a possible win in the bowl game, which would have meant an 8-4 record.
The point is, Tyler Bowen does not need to move mountains in order for Tech to have a much more successful 2023 campaign. He doesn’t even have to be Stiney (Bryand Stinespring) good! Average will truly suffice.
Steven Tyler: What will it take to let [2022] go?
Hokie Analytics: Eight wins, including the bowl game.
How good can the 2023 defense be?
The 2022 defense was almost spot-on with the 52-year mean SP+ Defense Percentile (69.7 vs. 69.9). However, the median over that length of time is actually 74.3, just shy of the seven to nine win cutoff of 75.
With most of the key players from 2022 returning in 2023, one could reasonably set the over/under at the 75th percentile for the defense in the coming year.
Even if the defense were to take an unexpected step backward in its second season under Chris Marve, it would likely remain north of the 60th percentile, which would support six wins if paired with a half decent offense.
So, a reasonably high floor and moderate expectations for year-over-year improvement have the Hokies in a pretty good position. However, questions around defensive line depth likely mean a fairly low ceiling. Think somewhere in the neighborhood of the 80th percentile.
Don’t get me wrong, that would be a great outcome for this defense, but at this point it is probably unrealistic to think the defense stands a reasonable possibility of pushing higher than that.
The Takeaway
Based on historical SP+ ratings for the offense and defense, the 2023 Hokies are better positioned for success than many might suspect. Five wins appears to be a reasonable floor, but the data suggest the ceiling for this team is actually nine wins.
That may sound ambitious, but is it? The schedule features a lot of losable games, but 11 of the 12 are also readily winnable.
The Hokies should travel to Tallahassee in early October as, at worst, a 3-2 football team. There is also decent enough chance that they enter that game undefeated and ranked around 22nd in AP Poll.
Let’s assume the defense improves from the 70th percentile in 2022 to the 75th in 2023. From there:
A sub-Scot Loeffler era offense = 5 wins
An average Scot Loeffler era offense = 6 to 7 wins
An average Brad Cornelsen era offense = 8 to 9 wins
Ultimately, like so much in football, the 2023 team will go as far as their good health takes them. With that in mind, an over/under of 7.5 wins, including the bowl game, looks appropriate for this year’s Hokies.
Seems high, doesn’t it? But the numbers are the numbers. And by the end of September, we should have a pretty good idea of where this thing is headed.