First and Tendencies

Did Virginia Tech's 1st down offensive play calling in 2023 differ significantly in games that it won versus games that it lost?

I have spoken before about how the first three offensive plays called by Tyler Bowen in 2023 games indicated whether or not he believed the Hokies were the better team.

The findings included a propensity for screen passes and a lack of runs.

This week I expanded on that previous analysis to see if those tendencies held up throughout games and whether or not Bowen was justified in making these play calls.

1st and 10 baseline

Obviously, not all plays are equal - down and distance matter. To control for that, this analysis looks only at plays run on first down when 10 yards are needed to sustain the drive.

Not surprisingly, the Hokies ran the ball more often on 1st and 10 in games that they won than games that they lost. This finding alone accounts for most of the home/away difference, as the Hokies went 4-2 at home and 2-4 on the road.

The question, though, is were they justified in shifting the play calling ratio?

At first blush, the answer is no. First and 10 passes were nearly unstoppable in games the Hokies won, but only 65% as effective in the losses. Meanwhile, rushing plays actually fared better, improving from 5.7 yards per attempt to 7.3.

And, here’s the kicker - in the losses, rushing plays actually outgained passing plays by more than half a yard per attempt!

However, maybe these figures are biased. After all, most of Tech’s games this past season were blowouts. Perhaps the numbers will be different if we compare the data from only those parts of the game in which the scoring difference was within a touchdown in either direction (i.e., Virginia Tech was winning by no more than 7 points but also losing by no more than 7 points).

1st and 10 in close games

In games the Hokies won, when the scoring margin was within one touchdown, they ran the ball 65% of the time on 1st and 10. In contrast, in the games they lost, they ran the ball on only 41% of 1st and 10 plays.

Even more surprising was the relative success of those plays. Competitive first and 10 rushing plays gained, on average, 7.6 yards per attempt in games the Hokies lost compared to just 3.5 YPA in the wins.

Interestingly, the 1st and 10 passes in these circumstances were also more successful in the losses than the wins (7.0 YPA vs. 6.2). Much of that was due to the higher completion percentage in the losses (63% vs. 50%).

However, that was negated by the 4-0 disparity in sacks in the losses (I did not count sack yardage in either the passing or the rushing yardage totals, as these were technically rush yards but the intent was to pass and intent is what we are examining in this analysis).

Counterpoints

On 1st and 10 plays when the game was within a touchdown, if we just look at the four road losses, the data are skewed a bit by touchdown runs. For example, Tech gained 53 yards on 10 carries when they did not score a touchdown.

The TD runs accumulated 47 yards on just two carries. But isn’t that the point? Keep running and you’re likely to bust one eventually.

One could make the argument that opposing defensive coordinators picked up on the 1st down passing tendency and made adjustments, which opened up the run plays.

Another consideration is designed vs. improvised runs (e.g., to avoid a pass rush) and the amount of option plays or RPOs called.

For example, most defensive coordinators subscribe to the “We have to stop the run” mantra. If defenses lined up with the intent to stop the run on 1st down, it is possible that Bowen showed similar looks, but in the wins more of the run calls did not have a true pass option while in the losses more of them did. The number of designed passes could have been the same.

Why might this have been the case? Again, I return to the concept of belief. If you lack confidence in your offense to consistently gain yardage, then you will take more chances, especially early in a series.

On the flip side, if you believe your offense can overcome 2nd and 9 and successfully move the chains, then you are more likely to call a designed run into the teeth of a run blitz or eight-man front.

Concluding thoughts

When games were close, we would expect a run-first team like the Hokies to have a pretty consistent 1st and 10 run rate regardless of the opponent. A range, yes, but that range should be fairly restricted.

Instead, the difference for the Hokies in 2023 was 24 percentage points. That number just jumps off the page.

It appears that in the losses, Tyler Bowen was more aggressive in his 1st down play calling than in the wins, even if it did not necessarily feel that way in the moment.

And the reason the aggressive calls (passes) felt more conservative is that they were less successful than the more conservative calls (runs) that were also run in the same down and distance.

What really stands out is Tech’s ability to run the ball successfully on first down regardless of game location or opponent. With nearly every offensive line contributor returning, and added depth coming via the transfer portal and more of the younger guys ready to step in and play, Tech’s running game should be even better next year.

Perhaps then there will be sufficient belief among the coaches to call more 1st down runs against quality opponents.