Hokie Analytics
Hokie Analytics Podcast
EP 4: Added Context Around VT's 38-21 Win Over Pitt
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EP 4: Added Context Around VT's 38-21 Win Over Pitt

How well did Virginia Tech's performance compare to that of Pitt's other opponents this season?

Here are definitions of the advanced stats referenced in this episode:

Explosiveness measures the average EPA on plays which were marked as successful.

Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).

Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game.

Line Yards attempts to measure the number of running yards which are attributed to the offensive line. Yards are weighted as follows:

  • losses - 120%

  • 0-4 yards from LOS - 100%

  • 5-10 yards from LOS - 50%

  • 11+ yards from LOW - 0+

Open Field Yards measures average yards per carry that comes from over 10 yards past the LOS.

Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:

  • the offense scored

  • 1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go

  • 2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go

  • 3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go

Stuff Rate is the percentage of running plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Hokie Analytics
Hokie Analytics Podcast
The Hokie Analytics Podcast provides data driven coverage of Virginia Tech football, including modelled predictions and game analyses, as well as detailed examinations of in-game strategy and roster management.