ACC Likely a One-bid Conference in First Season of 12-team Playoff
ACC Likely a One-bid Conference in First Season of 12-team Playoff
Virginia Tech, picked to finish 6th out of 17 teams, likely needs to win conference championship in order to secure playoff bid
Thanks to the new 12-team playoff format, a second, or even third, place power conference finish can still be sufficient to get an invite to college football’s version of the big dance.
However, non-champions only need apply when the champion is an elite team.
The likelihood of the ACC champion achieving elite status in 2024 took a major hit on Saturday, when Florida St., voted #1 in the preseason ACC media poll, lost to Georgia Tech (picked ninth) by a field goal as time expired in Dublin, Ireland.
Truth be told, the ACC was facing an uphill battle before that game even started.
At #10 nationally in the preseason SP+, Florida St. was the ACC’s best hope for an elite team.
Meanwhile, #16 Clemson (vs. #1 Georgia in Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta) and #19 Miami (at Florida) will face stiff tests in their opening games this coming Saturday.
There is a very real possibility that the ACC’s top three teams in the preseason SP+ will all lose their first game of the season.
Additionally, SMU, #27 in the preseason SP+ (fourth among ACC teams), needed a furious comeback to erase an 11-point fourth quarter deficit and win at Nevada in Week 0.
While political considerations will give the ACC every possible chance to land two teams in the playoff, the ACC appears primed to wrestle defeat from the jaws of victory.
That would make Virginia Tech’s playoff proposition an all or nothing deal.
Virginia Tech outlook
Based on historical SP+ data, the 2024 Hokies are a fringe 10-win team, but 9 wins are most likely. For new readers, or those who would like a refresher, here is the detailed analysis from last summer:
It was this analysis that enabled me to predict the resurrection of the Hokies’ season after starting 1-3 last year.
SP+ has the Hokies in the 74th percentile in its preseason ratings (#36 nationally). Virginia Tech’s offense is in the 69th percentile, while the defense is in the 75th percentile.
If one assumes the Hokies go 9-3, then the likeliest conference record would be 6-2, which would probably not be enough to get Tech into the conference championship game.
Such an outcome would be a good result, and would definitely get the Hokies invited to a solid bowl, but given the weakness of the conference, it would not be enough to secure a playoff bid.
How the Hokies earn a berth in the ACC championship
If the Hokies could find a tenth win, they would stand as good a chance as any other ACC team of securing a berth in the championship game.
Historically, 10-win Virginia Tech teams have featured elite defenses and above average offenses. These teams have, on averaged, finished in the 87th percentile in SP+.
The 2024 team will begin the season with an SP+ offense typical of Tech teams that win double digit games. The questions revolve around the defense.
That’s where the pillow-soft schedule comes in.
Tech could be favored in 10 games, and only three teams feature an offense rated above the 52nd percentile: Clemson, Miami, and Georgia Tech.
Given the high (for the Hokies) SP+ offense rating, Tech’s defense should not have to rise to truly elite status in order to win 10 games against this schedule. The tipping point is likely around the 84th percentile.
That would require a noted increase from the initial rating, in the 75th percentile, but it is possible.
And if Tech enters November with, at most, one loss, they will be in the playoff conversation.
Ultimately, the numbers point to Virginia Tech remaining on the outside looking in, but in year 3 of the Brent Pry era, such a season would represent continued progress. And depending on who decides to return for 2025, excitement about the future could reach levels not seen since the early 2000s.