What Happened at Old Dominion
What Happened at Old Dominion
Drones gets right on the ground, others get injured
The score prediction model had Virginia Tech putting up more than thirty points and winning by 19.3 points over Old Dominion. Sure enough, on Saturday the Hokies scored 37 points en route to a 20-point victory.
This was the second straight year in which the model produced a near perfect prediction of the VT-ODU final score. And like last year, the win feels a little incomplete, what with the Hokies leaving a lot of points on the field.
However, this game’s most lasting impact could be the injuries sustained by major Virginia Tech contributors.
Next man up
By my count, five key Virginia Tech players suffered injuries against the Monarchs on Saturday.
LT Xavier Chaplin was injured during warmups. Chaplin’s replacement, Johnny Garrett, played very well in the first extended action of his career. Garrett notched a 67.1 preliminary PFF grade in 70 snaps.
RB Bhayshul Tuten was nicked up in the first half. He returned and finished the day with more than 100 yards rushing. The Hokies will have to monitor his wear and tear.
LB Keli Lawson, who seems to always be battling some sort of injury, went down and was replaced by Caleb Woodson. Tech’s third-string (or fourth, depending on how one views Jaden Keller) Will linebacker struggled, finishing with a preliminary PFF grade just over 50.
WRs Ali Jennings and Stephen Gosnell both went down, and while Gosnell returned, Jennings did not. In their stead, Ayden Greene struggled (49.9 preliminary PFF grade).
As expected, Brody Meadows did return to (limited) action this week. In 12 snaps, he graded out at, I kid you not, 99.9.
Ten of his snaps were run plays, and his run blocking grade was 97.9.
Yes, I know those grades are preliminary, but my point from last week stands. As soon as he knocks off the rust and returns to game shape, I would expect Meadows to start at left guard.
The eye test doth lieth?
Virginia Tech was clearly the bigger, stronger, faster, deeper, and more experienced team inside S.B. Ballard Stadium on Saturday.
Even at halftime, with the Hokies nursing a 14-10 lead, I was not particularly concerned, and I suspect few people reading this were, either.
Virginia Tech’s post-game win probability, which “looks at advanced metrics like success rates, [EPA], and scoring opportunities and assesses the probability of each team winning should the game be played again with equivalent stats,” was 86.9%.
That means, “if you take all of the plays in [the] game and shuffle them into a random order,” ODU would be expected to win 13.1% of the time.
Given all the disadvantages I already listed, then adding in the fact that ODU was playing a third-string, true freshman quarterback who could not operate anything beyond the most basic passing concepts, Virginia Tech should have had a post-game win probability well above 95%.
Meaning, the Hokies should have dominated the game much more than they did.
The fact that they didn’t belies a number of issues that have been trending in 2024.
Causes for concern
For the second straight year, the Hokies appeared befuddled by ODU’s run concepts.
Consider offensive line yards, a metric that, according to CFBData, “attempts to measure the number of running yards which are attributed to the offensive line.”
The Hokies rushed for over 280 yards, with both Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten going over 100, but Tech just barely edged out ODU in offensive line yards, 3.5 to 3.3.
Likewise, Tech held a miniscule advantage in offensive stuff rate, 10% vs. 11%.
And it’s not like the defensive line played badly. As a unit, J.C. Price’s guys played very well. (Pass rush wise, APR had four out of the team’s five sacks.)
ODU’s offense is unique. No other team on Tech’s schedule runs a similar system, but given the Monarchs’ success on the ground the past two years, I would fully expect opposing teams to incorporate some of ODU’s rushing concepts into their own broader systems for Virginia Tech week.
Of course, the dirty little secret is that Tech wasn’t great against the run in either of its other two games this season, either.
The mental mistakes are fewer so far this season, but there are still too many. And they are unlikely to get “cleaned up” unless and until Jayden McDonald returns at Will.
A quick word on two players who do not merit mention
When it comes to Virginia Tech’s safeties, mum is the word in 2024. Jalen Stroman has not played in the last 10 quarters, but Jaylen Jones and Mose Phillips have played perfectly competent ball in his stead.
The PFF grades are not earth shattering in either direction. They generally fall in the low-to-mid 60s. I can’t remember the last big play one of the safeties made, but I also cannot remember a major mistake that really cost the team.
Pierson Prioleau’s room is clearly much improved in 2024, but the unit is still very thin, overall. The Hokies are just one more injury (or targeting call) from true freshman Quentin Reddish playing major snaps.