What Happened Against Georgia Tech
Hokies shake off struggles and capitalize on opportunities
The advanced stats from this week’s game are some of the strangest I can remember, but that is what happens when the team on the right side of a two-touchdown margin barely manages to move the ball.
Last week I wrote:
Virginia Tech’s significant advantage in the offensive backfield should make up for Georgia Tech’s advantage at wide receiver and tight end.
Indeed, the Hokie backfield was the difference, but not in the traditional sense.
Making plays when it matters most
The offensive line struggled as a unit because four out of the seven guys who played (Johnny Garrett and Brody Meadows off the bench plus the five usual starters; Layth Ghannam did not play) had off games.
Preliminary grades for Xavier Chaplin, Kaden Moore, Garrett, and Meadows were all below baseline, with the struggles worse in pass blocking than run blocking.
Speed off the edge was clearly an issue, and the coaching staff stuck with Chaplin for as long as he could go because, even nicked up, he held up much better at left tackle than Garrett did.
Georgia Tech’s size at defensive tackle also was an issue. Among the offensive guards, only Bob Schick had a preliminary PFF grade above baseline, and his was just over 60.
The result was an astronomical 38% stuff rate allowed by Virginia Tech, precisely double the rate allowed by Georgia Tech.
Again, returning to Virginia Tech’s advantage in the backfield, the Hokies won the game due mainly to two factors:
When they got in scoring range, the Hokies put the ball in endzone
Drones and Tuten, rather than try to do too much and yield turnovers, had the maturity, time and again, to go three-and-out and let Peter Moore blast the ball back to Georgia Tech
In comparison, Georgia Tech moved the ball some in the middle of the field, only to see drives stall when approaching scoring range.
And the Keli Lawson interception, on a textbook example of a trying-to-do-too-much pass from Zach Pyron, was the difference in the game.
Drilling down a little further, two advanced stats combine to paint an intriguing picture.
Virginia Tech’s offensive line generated only 1.5 offensive line yards per run, resulting in a negative (0.05) EPA per rushing play.
And yet, the Hokies won the latter stat by an incredible 0.20 per play.
Georgia Tech’s EPA per rushing play was a horrendous 0.25, despite a major advantage in offensive line yards (2.4).
Translation: when it mattered (when points were on the line) the Hokie backfield did a lot more with less than their counterparts from Atlanta, resulting in a healthy margin of victory.
The injury front
Seeing Xavier Chaplin go down with injuries not once, but twice, was tough. Seeing him punch the turf in frustration after the second injury was reassuring.
Clearly, Chaplin really wants to be on the field. The guy wants to help his team win football games. Play through injuries? No problem. Whatever it takes.
Not all players are built like that.
This is just one more indication that something is very right about the culture within the football program.
And credit for that goes to both Brent Pry and Justin Fuente.
In 2016, Fuente inherited some great upperclassmen and plenty of cancers among the underclassman. In the pre-portal days, cleaning up that mess was much more difficult than it would be today.
The personnel turnover process was tough on all involved, but over time, Fuente did get the guys out of the building who did not belong while bringing in guys who did.
Say what you will about Braxton Burmeister’s skills as a quarterback, but the guy was tough as nails, playing not only while hurt, but also when badly injured.
Xavier Chaplin, mentioned in the previous section, was a Fuente recruit. Many other locker room leaders are, as well.
Whit Babcock was smart to hire a coach in Brent Pry who sees the value in recruiting high character players.
He has built on the foundation Fuente laid, while doing a better job of keeping the game fun and fostering a closeness among players. It is also evident that the current staff values, and develops, maturity in its players.
The Hokies commit penalties, but not boneheaded ones. They give up points, but they rally. They allow yards, but then toughen up and stop teams in the redzone.
All of these traits are extremely important. Indeed, in games like this past week’s, they can be the difference between winning and losing.
Tracking player injuries
Sam Brumfield did play on Saturday, but his snap count was limited and his preliminary PFF grade again was much lower than what he had been averaging prior to last week.
He really struggled in pass coverage (already not a strong suit), which, combined with the lack of a bulky knee brace, suggests some kind of lower extremity issue, perhaps an ankle injury, or something of the sort.
Whatever is going on, it seems to impact Brumfield’s ability to change direction and then square up to make a tackle.
Mose Phillips played almost every snap against Georgia Tech, but he once again graded out comfortably below baseline (although much better than last week).
I am still of the belief that something is wrong with Phillips, but with his grade increasing this past week, hopefully he will have fully recovered prior to kickoff at Syracuse.
Finally, I’ll end with some good news, Keli Lawson was back, and he appeared to have much better range than he had the previous 4-5 games.
His interception looked more like the peak Keli Lawson that we saw more of in 2022.
The Hokie defense will be much better down the stretch if it can rotate a healthy Lawson in to spell the now entrenched starter, Caleb Woodson.