Week 9 Games of Interest

Time to brush up on the new ACC tiebreaker rules

Thursday night was fun! The Hokies have completely turned things around and now have the look of an upper echelon ACC team.

Two future Tech opponents, Louisville and NC State, will play important games today. There are also some other good and relevant games worthy of your attention.

5) Clemson at NC State

Importance to VT: The Hokies are scheduled to play NC State on November 18. The Wolfpack need two more wins to become bowl eligible, and their schedule down the stretch is tough, with games remaining against Miami and North Carolina.

If Clemson wins: Speaking of bowl eligibility, Clemson really needs to win this game. The Tigers still have games against Notre Dame, North Carolina, and the always tricky rivalry with South Carolina. A loss in Raleigh could send the season spiraling downward. As it is, one can’t help but get 2012 Virginia Tech vibes from this Clemson team.

If NC State wins: It would signify that the Wolfpack probably found their quarterback. It is hard to imagine an NC State win without a good performance under center. That said, poor QB play, in addition to spurring a loss, could lead to another change under center.

What is likely to happen, and why: NC State has so little in the way of offense that there are few scenarios under which it can win. The Wolfpack are efficient, but not explosive on the ground. Three yards and a cloud of dust is pretty much their only hope, but the Clemson run defense is very stout.

4) Old Dominion at James Madison

Importance to VT: The highest ranked team in Virginia takes on the lowest ranked one. Both teams are becoming genuine competition for the Hokies on the recruiting trail, as they continue to show out well on television and in the Sun Belt standings.

If Old Dominion wins: The Monarchs would own the tiebreaker with the Dukes in the Sun Belt East, potentially setting up a winner-take-all game later in November against Georgia Southern.

If James Madison wins: The controversy would grow on the post-season ban for the transitioning (from FCS) Dukes. And realistically, it should grow. It is hard to see that ban as anything but ridiculous. The fact that it could cost JMU a berth in a New Year’s Six game should get people up in arms.

What is likely to happen, and why: JMU’s defense is poised to smother a struggling ODU offense. The Monarch’s struggle to move the ball with any consistency, but are known to hit on some big plays through the air. Old Dominion is legit stingy against the run, but James Madison should find more than enough success throwing the ball.

3) Georgia at Florida

Importance to VT: The (former) World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party features another second year coach, one rumored to have been in contention for the Virginia Tech job, in Florida’s Billy Napier.

If Georgia wins: Ho hum, nothing to see here. The Dawgs beat everyone.

If Florida wins: Stop the presses! It’s crazy how one sided this game has become of late. For so long, Georgia was a good-but-not-great program, one that usually lost games like this. Now the shoe is on the other foot, and the Gators are two touchdown underdogs.

What is likely to happen, and why: Georgia has not really played anyone yet, and there is the sense that the Bulldogs are not quite as good as their record and rankings suggest. It is not impossible that Florida hangs in there and keeps this thing competitive at least into the second half. However, Florida’s defense, which is middling at best, will likely be its undoing.

2) Oregon at Utah

Importance to VT: This game likely has nothing to do with Virginia Tech, but for those who dare to dream, the winner of this game could potentially face the ACC Champion Hokies in a New Year’s Six game.

If Oregon wins: The Ducks would remain the strongest one loss team in the nation. It is unlikely that all the current undefeated teams actually making it to the finish line without a loss, so as long as Oregon keeps winning, it will have a chance to backdoor its way into the playoff.

If Utah wins: The Utes would remain a very real contender for the Pac-12 Championship game and a New Year’s Six bid.

What is likely to happen, and why: The Ducks play better defense than they get credit for, and their offense is orders of magnitude better than Utah’s. The game is in Salt Lake City and Utah’s ground attack should manage to scratch out some yards. Still, an upset is difficult to imagine. Oregon just has too much fire power offense.

1) Louisville at Duke

Importance to VT: Both teams are tied with the Hokies (in the loss column) in the ACC standings. Tech’s rooting interests are pretty clear. If Louisville wins this game, Duke goes on to upset UNC on November 11th, and the Hokies win out, the Hokies will play for the ACC Championship.

If Duke wins: Tech fans would then root for the Blue Devils to get upset by Wake Forest, Virginia, or Pitt, all of which are unlikely. It is too early to comment on tiebreakers, as a lot will depend on results from games in November. Suffice it to say, a Duke win will make Hokies fans sweat.

If Louisville wins: It will set up a very important matchup with the Hokies next week. Louisville lost in a road letdown at Pitt (following the Cardinals’ big upset over Notre Dame). A win would clarify that Louisville is a legit contender in the ACC.

What is likely to happen, and why: If Duke had a healthy Riley Leonard, this game would be a complete toss-up. With an injured Leonard, or perhaps without him altogether, the edge goes to Louisville. Duke’s defense is really stingy, but unless they get some help from the offense, it is hard to imagine the Blue Devils hanging in there for four quarters on the road, especially after the tough loss to Florida State last week