Week 7 Games of Interest
A delectable slate of games featuring near-elite teams competing for New Year's Six bids, and maybe more
The are five really good games today featuring teams ranked between #6 and #15, nationally. All five games feature a spread between 2.5 and 3.5.
With so many games between evenly matched teams, we are sure to get some exciting finishes.
5) NC State at Duke
Importance to VT: Riley Leonard is supposedly day-to-day with a high ankle sprain. We’ll see. Smells like coach speak. We’ll also see what kind of depth the Blue Devils have at QB. NC State has a real chance in this one. And the Wolfpack could end up being Virginia Tech’s most pivotal opponent of the season.
If NC State wins: The Wolfpack will almost certainly gain bowl eligibility. They will also likely roll into Blacksburg in November as a road favorite.
If Duke wins: The Blue Devils are legit with Riley Leonard. A win over the Wolfpack would demonstrate that they are legit, period. It would also make them 2-0 in the conference and keep them in the top tier of ACC teams.
What is likely to happen, and why: Duke’s defense is really good and NC State’s offense has been a mess all year. That combination is likely enough for Duke to scratch out an ugly win.
4) UCLA at Oregon State
Importance to VT: This is an elimination game in the Pac-12, but I also have a sneaking suspicion that the ACC is kicking the tires on Oregon St. Imagine this: the ACC adds three more teams (Oregon St., Washington St., and Boise State) to get to an even 20. The conference then announces the creation of four divisions:
North: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech
East: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Wake Forest
South: Clemson, Florida St., Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU
West: Boise St., Cal, Oregon St., Stanford, Washington St.
In football, teams would play every school in their division each year, plus four other conference teams on a rotating basis. The winners of each division would play in an ACC Final Four, with the winners there playing in the ACC Championship. That would solve the travel issue (as best one can) and drive increased revenue.
If UCLA wins: The Bruins would remain in contention for the conference championship. UCLA is likely an 8-9 win team, one capable of pulling an upset or two in its remaining seven games.
If Oregon St. wins: A win over UCLA would make the back half of the Beavers’ schedule must-see TV, especially the Civil War game against Oregon. Oregon St. has the look of a New Year’s Six team.
What is likely to happen, and why: Both defenses are equally strong, but the Beavers have the better offense. And home field advantage. In combination, that is likely enough to win a close game.
3) Miami at North Carolina
Importance to VT: The Hokies do not play either team this year, but it is in Virginia Tech’s interest that the ACC maintain respectability in the national consciousness. The top teams will inevitably beat each other up some, and this game is a case in point. Tech benefits most from an exciting game played at a high level.
If Miami wins: The Hurricanes avoid getting beaten by Georgia Tech twice. And that would be devastating, given the ending of that game. A win would also keep the Hurricanes in the hunt for a New Year’s Six game.
If North Carolina wins: The Tar Heels would be another step closer to the ACC Championship game. And, given the other ranked-on-ranked matchups this week, a win would likely elevate UNC into the top 10.
What is likely to happen, and why: North Carolina is solid across the board, and Miami looked vulnerable last week even before the kneel-down issue. The model views this as a matchup between equals, one that will come down to the very end, possibly in overtime.
2) USC at Notre Dame
Importance to VT: ACC member (in everything but football) Notre Dame plays its fourth straight game against an undefeated team. I cannot remember a team with a tougher run of games in the last two decades. With tough games remaining for both teams, this one might be a New Year’s Six elimination game.
If USC wins: The Trojans, and their atrocious defense, will still be in the playoff hunt.
If Notre Dame wins: With their insanely difficult schedule (the Irish still have a date with Clemson), I am not convinced they are out of playoff contention. Win out, and the Irish would finish 10-2 with wins over formerly undefeated Duke and USC, plus a strong win over Clemson.
What is likely to happen, and why: Notre Dame plays defense, and USC does not. The Irish offense might not be as good as the advanced stats suggest, but it is certainly capable of putting up points, at home, on USC.
1) Oregon at Washington
Importance to VT: None whatsoever, but it’s an even matchup between two top 10 teams with electric offenses.
If Oregon wins: The ducks will become a real playoff contender and have an inside track on the conference title race.
If Washington wins: The Huskies would cement themselves as playoff contenders. A Washington win would also ignite a debate about their resume compared to Michigan’s, as the Huskies would likely remain outside the top 5.
What is likely to happen, and why: On a neutral field, this would probably be a pick ‘em. Home field advantage is likely enough to propel Washington to victory in a game that could take on a look and feel similar to the Alabama/Tennessee game last year. One of these schools is going to have a coming out party.