There remain many more undefeated teams in college football than spots in the playoff. With three marquee matchups, week 6 will sort out which teams are legit contenders for conference titles and major postseason berths and which are primed for regressions to the mean.
The Saturday schedule is evenly balanced, with good games on throughout the day. Throw in some playoff baseball, and it should be a wonderful day for sports fans.
5) Kentucky at Georgia
Importance to VT: Nothing summarizes Kentucky’s recent success in mining the transfer portal better than a Devin Leary to Tavion Robinson pass completion.
If Kentucky wins: The Wildcats would have the inside track to winning the SEC East. Missouri is the only other team in the Eastern division with an unblemished conference record, and the Tigers host LSU’s Bayou Bengals.
If Georgia wins: It would quiet some of the whispers about the Bulldogs not being as good as they have been the last two years.
What is likely to happen, and why: Georgia is heavily favored and the game is in Athens, but the advanced stats give Kentucky more than a puncher’s chance, even if the predicted scores indicate a likely blowout.
4) Marshall at NC State
Importance to VT: The Hokies lost to a well coached, but not overly impressive, Marshall team two weeks ago. They will play NC State next month. The Wolfpack benched Brennan Armstrong in the hopes that MJ Morris can jumpstart their moribund offense. Right now, NC State looks like a toss-up game for Tech.
If Marshall wins: The NC State game could slide into the “likely win” category for the Hokies. It could also vault Charles Huff into the conversation for open head coaching jobs, such as the one at Michigan St.
If NC State wins: They will probably stick with Morris at QB. It would also move the Wolfpack one step closer to bowl eligibility.
What is likely to happen, and why: NC State is the likely winner, but the Wolfpack are not well equipped to take advantage of Marshall’s weaknesses. Expect a four-quarter slugfest.
3) Syracuse at North Carolina
Importance to VT: Syracuse started hot again this season, racking up wins during the easy part of their schedule. The going has gotten tougher of late, softening up the Orange in the runup to their Thursday night game in Blacksburg later this month.
If Syracuse wins: It will end North Carolina’s playoff hopes. It is possible that the Tar Heels could survive a loss and still make the playoff, but that loss would have to come at the hands of one of the league’s top teams.
If North Carolina wins: The Syracuse game would shift from leaning toward defeat for the Hokies to a genuine toss-up.
What is likely to happen, and why: North Carolina has the home field advantage, or perhaps it is better to say the Tar Heels avoid the disadvantage of playing in the dome. The advanced stats point to both teams being able to do what they want in this game. Syracuse might hang around for a bit, but Carolina is the better team and should win comfortably.
2) Notre Dame at Louisville
Importance to VT: Outside of Florida St., Louisville appears to be the toughest test left on Virginia Tech’s schedule. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Jeff Brohm’s first season, but tonight’s game against Notre Dame will be their first real test.
If Notre Dame wins: It would make the Irish 2-1 during this current stretch of games against ranked opponents. If the Irish keep winning, it is hard to imagine a situation in which the last second loss to Ohio St. costs them a playoff berth.
If Louisville wins: The talk would shift in tone from “nice little team” to contender for a conference title and playoff berth.
What is likely to happen, and why: Notre Dame is battle tested. Louisville is not. With the home crowd behind them, the Cardinals can probably keep things close into the third quarter. Anything beyond that will depend on Notre Dame’s mental and physical fatigue following two straight thrillers against highly ranked opponents.
1) Oklahoma at Texas
Importance to VT: In addition to being the most highly anticipated game nationally, this matchup features two high profile recent coaching hires. Steve Sarkisian is in his third year in Austin, and Brent Venables is in his second in Norman. To some degree, Brent Pry will be compared against both.
If Oklahoma wins: Suddenly the college football world will start taking the Sooners seriously. They have put up gaudy numbers against a so-so early schedule, but the consensus seems to be “prove it against a real team”.
If Texas wins: The Longhorns would, for all intents and purposes, secure a bid in the Big 12 Championship game. This would be their third win over a ranked opponent, and the rest of the schedule is comprised of average and worse teams.
What is likely to happen, and why: Last Vegas and the modeled score predictions disagree with the win probabilities. The advanced stats suggest a very even matchup. Oklahoma certainly will not lack for motivation, as the Sooners seek redemption for last year’s blowout loss. This one could go down to the wire, with Oklahoma’s advantage in offensive passing success rate the differentiator.