Week 5 Games of Interest
A thin ACC slate offers the opportunity to check out other recent coaching hires
Last night, Louisville went on the road and defeated NC State 13-10 in overtime. At this point, the 5-0 Cardinals look like Virginia Tech’s second hardest game, after Florida St. On the flip side, NC State’s offense is really struggling, and that looks like a getable game for the Hokies at home.
The Saturday ACC slate is pretty weak, with many teams enjoying their bye week. As such, this week’s Games of Interest will feature a lot of matchups involving recent head coaching hires.
The difference between these other teams, in various stages of rebuilds, and the Hokies is, in some cases, surprisingly small.
Florida at Kentucky
Importance to VT: Billy Napier was rumored to be a candidate for the Virginia Tech job before accepted the offer from Florida.
If Florida wins: The Gators began the year with a tough defeat on the road at Utah. A win over Tennessee, however, has Florida back in the top 25. Napier is not a sure thing, and there are still plenty of doubters, but a win today could solidify his position and propel the Gators toward real relevancy in the SEC.
If Kentucky wins: Aside from increased criticism for Billy Napier, a Kentucky win would be critical as the Wildcats begin their toughest stretch of the season. Next week they play at Georgia, then host Missouri and Tennessee, with Alabama coming to town in early November. The Wildcats could easily drop all four of those games.
What is likely to happen, and why: Kentucky has been the flashier team, but Florida is much more steady. Excellent offensive efficiency numbers and a strong defense point to Florida grinding out a win that feels closer than the predicted score suggests.
Kansas at Texas
Importance to VT: Now in his third year in Lawrence, Lance Leipold has completely turned around what was a moribund Jayhawk football program. News reports linking him to the opening at Michigan St. have emerged, but he is likely to be a candidate for most major jobs that will come open this cycle.
If Kansas wins: A win at Texas, when Kansas is ranked (and theoretically taken seriously by the Longhorns), would be a feather in Leipold’s cap. It could lead to a pay raise at Kansas and more offers from major schools.
If Texas wins: A Texas win would keep the Longhorns in the top 5 as they prepare for the Red River rivalry game with Oklahoma next week. Win both games, and the Longhorns will have an inside track to the playoff.
What is likely to happen, and why: Kansas should be able to throw on Texas, but yards will be more difficult to come by on the ground. Kansas’s defense does not appear capable of slowing the Longhorn offense enough to scratch out a victory.
USC at Colorado
Importance to VT: Deion Sanders and his Buffaloes, having captured the nation’s attention with their 3-0 start, came crashing back to earth in a blowout loss at Oregon last week. With a #79 ranking in SP+, Colorado is just one spot ahead of 1-3 Virginia Tech.
If USC wins: The Trojans are favored to win comfortably, and if they do, it will only confirm the laws college football physics. Tape is out on Colorado. While they have some great skill position pieces, they lack size, strength, and talent on both lines.
If Colorado wins: The better Colorado looks, the worse Brent Pry and his staff look. If Coach Prime can win 6+ games in his first year in Boulder, coming off a 1-11 season, patience with Pry’s rebuild will decline significantly. A Colorado win would be the team’s second this season (the first was at TCU).
What is likely to happen, and why: This one has all the makings of a high scoring affair, even if the model foresees Colorado struggling to score. USC’s defense gives up a lot of explosive plays through the air and is suspect against the run. Expect Colorado to feature a more even run/pass ratio against the Trojans. In the end, it probably will not be enough to secure a Colorado win, but the game should be an exciting one to watch, nevertheless.
Clemson at Syracuse
Importance to VT: Clemson is on the ropes and the Hokies will host the Orange on a Thursday night in October.
If Clemson wins: The Tigers need a win to maintain any possibility of making the ACC Championship game.
If Syracuse wins: A Syracuse win would propel Dino Babers’s squad into the ranks of ACC conference title contenders, while also making them a more formidable appearing Tech opponent than what was expected going into the year.
What is likely to happen, and why: Clemson always seems to have trouble when playing Syracuse in the dome. The Tigers’ efficient, though not particularly explosive offense, will likely do enough to win, but the margin of victory will probably include a late Tiger score. Expect a close game.
Notre Dame at Duke
Importance to VT: The Hokies play neither team this year, but Duke is an ACC member, Notre Dame is affiliated with the ACC, and both schools are possible playoff contenders. The more Mike Elko wins at Duke, the less patience Hokie fans will have for Pry & Co.
If Notre Dame wins: Notre Dame has the chance to get back on track after last week’s heartbreaking, last-second loss to Ohio St. The Irish still have Louisville, USC and Clemson lurking on the schedule, so they can ill afford another loss.
If Duke wins: Duke also has tough games remaining on its schedule (Florida St., Louisville, and North Carolina), but if (big if) the Blue Devils keep winning, they will make the playoff. Duke is a 5.5-point underdog in this game, and a win, given the opponent and the fact that ESPN’s College Gameday is in town, would probably be the biggest win in the school’s history.
What is likely to happen, and why: Duke is legit, but so is Notre Dame. In a battle of two well coached teams, Notre Dame’s talent advantage is likely enough to help the Irish sneak out a victory on the road. For a more detailed breakdown of this game, I highly recommend checking out this preview by Shake Down the Numbers. Those guys are my analytics source for all things Notre Dame football.