Week 3 Games of Interest

Past opponents vs. future opponents, and other delectable matchups

Last week saw a number of surprising results in the Games of Interest. The model went 2-3 in those five games, a reflection of the uncertainty around the shifting landscape of college football.

One of the variables incorporated into the model is the spread. Since the spread is a compilation of the betting world’s subjective impressions of the game, I find it the least biased means of controlling for injuries, suspensions, etc.

The combination of NIL and the transfer portal seems to have brought increased parity to college football.

Alabama has fallen a notch. They look like Clemson from two years ago. Meanwhile, Clemson looks like they have fallen two notches.

However, it’s still early. This could all be a mirage. But even if it is, we are seeing weakness at the top in ways that we have not for at least a decade.

One result is heightened awareness of teams that could potentially fill the void, some which are featured this week.

5) Minnesota at North Carolina

Importance to VT: After defeating South Carolina in week 1, North Carolina is looking for another victory over a P5 team. With Clemson failing to impress, the ACC needs another team to step up. UNC is best positioned to do just that.

If Minnesota wins: It would take the shine off any potential Big Ten pursuit of the Tar Heels in the next round of conference realignment. It would also leave either Duke (#21) or Miami (#22) as the second highest ranked ACC team, assuming Florida St. wins at Boston College.

If North Carolina wins: That will make it three wins over solid, if not spectacular, teams (App. St. being the third) for UNC. The Tar Heels will play Duke, Miami, and Clemson in conference, but they avoid Florida St., setting up another potential run to the ACC Championship game.

What is likely to happen, and why: Minnesota is a pretty stationary team - they don’t move the ball much, and neither do their opponents. The model likes UNC by nine, and it is hard to imagine the Golden Gophers finding enough offense, especially against an improved UNC defense, to pull the road upset.

4) Pittsburgh at West Virginia

Importance to VT: The Hokies will play host to Pitt in a couple weeks. While the Panthers are coming off a bad home loss to Cincinnati, Neal Brown and West Virginia need the win more.

If Pittsburgh wins: They probably fix whatever went wrong with Phil Jurkovec last week. The QB transfer completed less than one-third of his passes. It would also make the Panthers look more formidable than they currently do.

If West Virginia wins: Most in the media penciled in a VT loss to Pittsburgh before the season started. Depending on what happens in Piscataway, NJ, a 1-2 start by Pitt could have the prognosticators reassessing.

What is likely to happen, and why: West Virginia runs the ball nearly 60% of the time, and the Panthers allowed Cincinnati’s Corey Kiner to run for 153 yards on 20 carries last week.. On paper, WVU is the stronger team, and they are playing at home and at night. The model calls it 26-23 in favor of the Mountaineers, and it is not hard to imagine them winning by more.