Last week’s Games of Interest featured some thrilling games, especially the Colorado upset. This week, if there was a theme, it would be measuring the strength of the ACC’s tier 2 teams.
There are three high profile games between mid-pack ACC teams and power five opponents. Only one out of the three ACC teams (Pitt) is favored to win, but all three games will be played in ACC stadiums.
However, we’ll lead off with a sneaky good game between Commonwealth foes, both with a lot to play for.
5) James Madison at Virginia
Importance to VT: The Hokies compete with both schools for in-state talent. At present, Tech is not losing major recruits to JMU, but if the Dukes continue winning games at the clip they have been in recent years, that could change.
If James Madison wins: They can further their claim to being a legit in-state option out on the recruiting trail. The Commonwealth of Virginia has five FBS schools, and a JMU win today could relegate UVA to fourth or fifth place in terms of on-field performance.
If Virginia wins: The Wahoos will finally have something to feel good about. Last season was a struggle on the field, then with the tragedy off the field and the tough road game against Tennessee to start the 2023 season, the ‘Hoos are due for a positive result.
What is likely to happen, and why: Virginia’s advanced stats are skewed from the Tennessee game, but the model is calling for a 28-20 JMU win.
4) Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Importance to VT: Tech will play Pitt in Lane Stadium on September 30. This game will also go a long way toward defining the overall strength of the ACC.
If Cincinnati wins: Cincy might be a dark horse pick to win the Big 12. Regardless of the coaching transition, the Bearcats have won a lot of games in recent years, and last week the new staff picked up where the old staff left off.
If Pitt wins: Similar to Cincinnati, a Pitt win would cement their dark horse status in the ACC. Traditionally, this is the sort of game that Pitt wins, so few would be surprised.
What is likely to happen, and why: Pitt lost some players on defense in the offseason, but they still return a lot of talent. That defense is likely to slow the Bearcat offense. The model likes Pitt 29-21.
3) Notre Dame at NC State
Importance to VT: A Wolfpack win would be huge for the ACC. Notre Dame has looked very good with Sam Hartman at quarterback.
If Notre Dame wins: The Irish should go into the game with Ohio St. in two weeks at 4-0 and full of confidence.
If NC State wins: Suddenly the ACC would become a very interesting conference. It’s hard to remember the last time, if ever, the ACC featured enough strength top to bottom such that one of its second tier teams could pull off an upset over a highly ranked college football blue blood.
What is likely to happen, and why: Notre Dame won’t score at will this week, but the Irish offense features too many playmakers for NC State to keep pace.
2) Texas A&M at Miami
Importance to VT: This is the third high profile ACC/SEC matchup of the season. The ACC won both last week, with UNC and Florida St. claiming emphatic victories in games that were expected to be close.
If Texas A&M wins: Get ready for more Bobby Petrino/Jimbo Fisher kumbaya talk. That storyline is already old. If A&M starts performing at a level commensurate with its talent, they could challenge for a conference title.
If Miami wins: The U is back? Not exactly. The U will be back when the Hurricanes:
Win the ACC; AND
Win a New Year’s Six game
Still, a win would be huge for the conference. It would also signal better alignment within the Miami coaching staff, which was an issue in 2022.
What is likely to happen, and why: In a battle of two teams with contrasting styles (pass first for A&M, run first for Miami), the model likes the Aggies 28-22.
1) Texas at Alabama
Importance to VT: This game is not particularly important to the Hokies, at least not at this time, but it’s the marquee game of the weekend. Last year’s game in Austin was a thriller and expectations are high for an exciting rematch.
If Texas wins: We might be post-peak for both Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide and Dabo’s Clemson Tigers. With Ohio St. looking shaky in week 1, this could be the year we see new teams at the top of the polls and competing in the CFP Playoff.
If Alabama wins: The talk about Texas would have been just that, talk. A Tide win would also stave off some of the creeping whispers about Saban’s age and a passing of the baton in the SEC.
What is likely to happen, and why: The model likes Alabama 28-20, and in preseason testing it demonstrated 78.4% accuracy when picking the home team to outscore the away team. Still, this is the sort of game that has turned into a thrilling upset in recent years. This game has the feel of the night game a couple years ago when Jimbo finally beat his mentor.