Week 13 Reasons to Believe

Great games and relevant case studies

For the first 11 Saturdays of the season, I provided a look at the three games most likely to influence Virginia Tech’s postseason destination.

At this point, such a post is irrelevant.

The Hokies will, hopefully, win at least one of their next two games and play in a bowl game, but the middle of the ACC is such a jumbled mess that the focus is really on the Hokies.

Results, health of the team, and the fanbase’s vibes will determine if the Hokies make the postseason, and where that might be.

Also, frankly, whether the Hokies play in a low- or medium-tier bowl does not really matter.

Virginia Tech controls how its season will conclude.

Meanwhile, these three games will provide interesting case studies for the Virginia Tech fanbase.

Game 1: #5 Indiana at #2 Ohio St.

Virginia Tech is 52nd nationally in team talent. Undefeated Indiana is 57th. It would be easy to attribute Indiana’s better record all to coaching. But what about schedule? Indiana’s hasn’t been the toughest, especially early in the season when the team was still coming together. Additionally, Indiana’s use of the portal is worthy of detailed study. At a high level, the Hoosiers’ portal strategy suggests that player-system fit is everything. Vanderbilt’s success in the SEC offers clear supporting evidence. Pry & Co. have succeeded in getting great fits out of the portal, too. One problem is that there are still too many players recruited during the Fuente era that are not great system fits. Keeping those guys in the program and getting the most out of them has been great for the program’s culture, but it has led to inconsistent on-field results.

Game 2: #19 Army at #6 Notre Dame

This game is not supposed to be possible. Even the new CFP format appears to have overlooked the possibility that Army could ever make the playoff, scheduling the Army-Navy game for the week after seeding is to be finalized. No one expects Army to win, but nearly everyone will be rooting for the Black Knights of the Hudson. Northern Illinois has already proven that Notre Dame is fallible. One of the most interesting aspects of this Army team is the concept of a low-impact offense, something I have been wrestling with all season and plan to explore in more depth in the offseason.

Game 3: #14 BYU at #21 Arizona St.

According to team talent and the key advanced stats, a healthy Virginia Tech would be very competitive against both BYU and Arizona St. And both of these teams are playing a late November game with a playoff berth on the line. BYU is no longer undefeated, but the Cougars have won a lot of close games this year. The Hokies have lost a lot of close games. I am very interested in comparing the two teams side-by-side to see why their results in one-score games have been so different.