Week 12 Games of Interest
(Mostly) ACC Bowl Edition
There are a lot of snoozer games on the schedule this week. The outcomes of some of those snoozers are very important to the Hokies.
At 5-5, Tech has two opportunities to win the one game they need to become bowl eligible. The Hokies will be favored in both games.
Win one, and the conversation immediately shifts to bowl positioning. Here, Tech’s 4-2 record in conference is a major boost.
Still, there is 25% of the conference slate left to play in these last eight days of the regular season. The standings can and will change.
5) Syracuse at Georgia Tech
Importance to VT: Both teams enter this game with a 5-5 overall record, but at 4-3 in the ACC, Georgia Tech is a threat to leap the Hokies in the bowl pecking order, while Syracuse (1-5 in conference) is not. Georgia Tech plays Georgia next week, which is almost a guaranteed loss. That makes this week’s game a must win.
If Syracuse wins: The Orange become bowl eligible, possibly extending the Dino Babers era another season.
If Georgia Tech wins: The Yellow Jackets become bowl eligible and clinch a winning record in conference.
What is likely to happen, and why: Syracuse has issues at QB, and the homestanding Yellow Jackets have a stronger offense, so this one is as likely to be a blowout (in Georgia Tech’s favor) as it is to be a close game.
4) Duke at Virginia
Importance to VT: Duke is 3-3 in conference, but is favored this week and likely will be again next week against Pitt. UVA has played a lot of close games and is probably better than their 2-8 record would lead one to believe. The Wahoos host Virginia Tech next week.
If Duke wins: The Blue Devils will clinch a non-losing conference record and position themselves to secure a fifth ACC win next week. Again, depending on how things shake out for Tech, Duke, which will likely finish with a better overall record, could nab a better bowl than the Hokies.
If Virginia wins: The Wahoos would enter next week’s rivalry game with both confidence and momentum.
What is likely to happen, and why: Virginia struggles to defend the run and Duke is not only a good rushing team, but it is also a team that is almost entirely dependent on the run since Riley Leonard’s injury. UVA will likely struggle to generate much offense, and if Duke can force some turnovers on the plus side of the field, this one could be a comfortable victory.
3) Georgia at Tennessee
Importance to VT: Tennessee is a possible bowl opponent.
If Georgia wins: The Bulldogs would be a Georgia Tech win away from their third straight perfect regular season.
If Tennessee wins: A win would improve the odds of the Vols getting to play in a New Year’s Day bowl game.
What is likely to happen, and why: Tennessee’s best hope is to catch Georgia napping, but that is unlikely. The Dawgs have both too much offense and too much defense for the Vols. This could be a two score game by halftime, and Georgia will likely cruise to victory.
2) North Carolina at Clemson
Importance to VT: Tech still has an outside chance of making it to Charlotte to play in the ACC Championship. For that to happen, Tech would need North Carolina to win out.
If North Carolina wins: Clemson would finish with a losing record in a conference, which, given their decade-long run of dominance, would be shocking.
If Clemson wins: The Tigers would finish with an even 4-4 record in conference, move to 7-4 overall, and be a win-over-South-Carolina away from a decent bowl game.
What is likely to happen, and why: If only UNC could play good defense in a game that matters, the Tar Heels would have a good chance in this one. On balance, the advanced stats look pretty favorable for them. But the game is on the road, and Las Vegas believes strongly that past is prologue and Clemson will win.
1) Louisville at Miami
Importance to VT: Tech needs Miami to win this noon affair in order to maintain an outside chance at a conference title game berth.
If Louisville wins: The Cardinals will clinch a Louisville vs. Florida St. matchup in the ACC Championship game, which is probably the best outcome for the conference, if not Virginia Tech.
If Miami wins: Tech is still alive in the race for second place in the conference and Miami will have a chance to even its conference record in the finale at Boston College.
What is likely to happen, and why: Look at that modelled score prediction: Miami 24.5, Louisville 24.4. Doesn’t get much closer than that! The Hurricanes played well in a loss to Florida St. last week. Tyler Van Dyke is back at quarterback, which could be great or terrible, depending on the number of interceptions he throws. Both defenses are stingy, but have a tendency to give up big plays through the air. Look for that to be the difference in the game’s outcome.