Week 10 Games that will Impact Virginia Tech's Post-season Destination

Playoff picture begins to take shape

Next week the committee will release its initial playoff seeds. At present, going by SP+, here is how the field probably looks:

1. Oregon (Big Ten, #4 SP+) - FIRST ROUND BYE

2. Miami (ACC, #9) - FIRST ROUND BYE

3. Texas A&M (SEC, #11) - FIRST ROUND BYE

4. BYU (Big 12, #26) - FIRST ROUND BYE

5. Texas (SEC, #1)

6. Ohio St. (Big Ten, #2)

7. Ole Miss (SEC, #3)

8. Alabama (SEC, #4)

9. Georgia (SEC, #6)

10. Notre Dame (Independent, #7)

11. Penn St. (Big Ten, #8)

12. Army (American, #33)

One can make a strong argument that Tennessee and LSU would get in over Alabama and Ole Miss, but the net effect is still 5 SEC teams in the field of 12.

Here is the conference breakdown, including teams that are knocking on the door (meaning they have a legit chance to get in, either via winning their conference or an at-large bid):

SEC - 5

• Outside looking in - Tennessee (#10), LSU (#12)

Big Ten - 3

• Outside looking in - Indiana (#13)

ACC - 1

• Outside looking in - Clemson (#14), SMU (#17), Pitt (#23), Virginia Tech (#24)

Big 12 - 1

• Outside looking in - Kansas St. (#15), Iowa St. (#18)

G5 + Notre Dame - 2

• Outside looking in - Boise St. (#36)

Long-term, the ACC still looks like a two-bid league. There is not enough separation at the top of the SEC to support five bids by the time they all finish beating up on one another.

The ACC, on the other hand, has a pretty clear top group, many of which have relatively easy schedules down the stretch.

Either way, Virginia Tech has to win every game from here on out to remain in the conversation. And if the Hokies do that, the questions will be:

1. Does Virginia Tech qualify for the ACC Championship game?

2. If Virginia Tech does not play for the title, could it jump the loser of the championship game in the playoff pecking order?

Last Week’s Rooting Interest Record: 0-3 (8-19 on the season)

This poor record in rooting interest games is nearly to the point of necessitating an ACC title in order for the Hokies to make the playoff. Another oh-and-three week would probably end the possibility of an at-large bid. And that is precisely what the model is forecasting (with confidence - it sees all favored teams covering).

Record of Predictions in Rooting Interest Games: 3-0 (22-5)

Last week:

• Duke nearly, and probably should have, pulled off the home upset. Will we look back on this as the game that got SMU into the ACC Championship and, along with the Miami game, kept Virginia Tech out? (Rooting L, Prediction W)

• Ireland (Notre Dame) routed America (Navy), and “routed” probably does masks the extent to which Navy was outplayed by the ascendant Fighting Irish. (Rooting L, Prediction W)

• Vanderbilt hung around all day, but came up a field goal short in the end. (Rooting L, Prediction W)

Now then. on to this week’s games!

Game 1: #18 Pitt at # 20 SMU

If SMU gets by Pitt, the Mustangs will have a pretty smooth road to the ACC Championship: BC, UVA, and Cal, with a trip to Charlottesville being the only road trip. Meanwhile, Pitt still has games against UVA and Clemson, followed by a couple of tricky road trips: to Louisville and Boston College. Tech needs both teams to lose at least once, but this is the last best chance to tag SMU with a loss.

Rooting Interest: Pitt

Game 2: Duke at #5 Miami

Duke was a major underdog last week and almost beat SMU. There is the potential for Duke to be a bit hungover from that loss, which could contribute to an easy Miami win. There is also the possibility that last week’s result serves as motivation and, combined with Miami not taking the Blue Devils seriously, leads to a massive upset. Tech would certainly benefit from the latter situation.

Rooting Interest: Duke

Game 3: Louisville at #11 Clemson

This matchup is much more even than the teams’ respective records would suggest. Clemson has more talent and slightly better numbers in most categories than Louisville. Most importantly, the game is at night in Death Valley. All that gives the Tigers an edge, but look at Clemson’s defensive advanced stats - they are not particularly impressive, especially the 4.4 points per opportunity. Clemson could lose this game, and maybe that would benefit Tech, but in the long run, the Hokies are probably better off if Clemson wins. Tech could use a marquee win to bolster its at-large case in the even that it wins out, but does not make it to the conference championship game.

Rooting Interest: Clemson