Week 10 Games of Interest

It's that time of year when things start happening

Virginia Tech started out 8-0 is two seasons while I was there as an undergrad - 2002 and 2005. In both years they lost their ninth game.

Ever since, I’ve considered the ninth game of the year the line of demarcation. This is the week in which pretenders are separated from contenders.

With that in mind, keep an eye on Florida St. playing at Pitt. There are too many great games this weekend for this one (and it’s -21.0 point line for FSU) to make the cut, but Pittsburgh is a strange place to play, especially in November, especially for a team from Florida.

Pitt, behind Larry Fitzgerald, Rod Rutherford, and Brandon Miree handed the Hokies their first loss, on a frigid night in Lane Stadium no less, back in 2002.

This year’s Pitt team is a shell of that ‘02 team. The Panthers got crushed this past week by Notre Dame. Immediately after that game, Head Coach Pat Narduzzi called out his players for lacking talent.

The Panthers might just pack it in and quit on the season. Or, they might play FSU closer than anyone expects.

It’s worth keeping an eye out for as scores scroll past on the bottom line.

Now then, I mentioned there are lots of great games this weekend. The deal there is that they are all national games. None have any particular bearing on the Hokies.

With that in mind, I have removed the Importance to VT section this week. I expect it to return, in all its glory, next week.

5) Notre Dame at Clemson

If Notre Dame wins: Despite Clemson’s record, a win in Death Valley would still carry weight. While the Irish have two losses, and there are still more undefeated P5 teams than there are playoff spots, I would caution against writing off Notre Dame.

If Clemson wins: The Tigers would be in much better shape regarding bowl eligibility. Record-wise, the season is bordering on disaster, but Clemson, like Notre Dame, has played a difficult schedule. A strong finish, beginning with this game, would quiet the critics.

What is likely to happen, and why: Clemson will make it a four quarter game, but losing can be habit forming, and this Clemson team is just not explosive on offense to beat good teams right now. Big plays will be the difference in a game that leans toward Notre Dame

4) Missouri at Georgia

If Missouri wins: Outside of offensive success rates and EPA/play, Georgia’s advanced stats mirror Clemson’s. That should tell you that the Bulldogs are getable this year. If Missouri wins, the Tigers will control their own destiny in the SEC East.

If Georgia wins: For all intents and purposes, a win this week would wrap up the SEC East for Georgia.

What is likely to happen, and why: Missouri would be a lot more dangerous if it got the Dawgs at home. But they didn’t. The game is in Athens. Missouri is a good, but not great, running team. Georgia will try to make the Tigers one dimensional (and likely succeed). Still, this Georgia team is not as good as the last two. Missouri is good enough to pull the upset here.

3) Oklahoma at Oklahoma St.

If Oklahoma wins: The Sooners will be in a much stronger position to make the Big 12 Championship game, and they will maintain an outside chance of making the playoff.

If Oklahoma St. wins: All of a sudden the Cowboys would have the inside track in the race to make the conference championship game. Perhaps even more importantly, “little brother” would secure bragging rights indefinitely, as the Bedlam game will go on hiatus starting next year with Oklahoma’s departure for the SEC.

What is likely to happen, and why: Oklahoma is the better team and will likely win the game. However, the more interesting question centers on Brian Bosworth and Mike Gundy. The trash talking between those two this week was legendary. Here, analytics have nothing to offer. You’ll just have to tune in and watch!

2) Washington at USC

If Washington wins: The Huskies will take a huge step toward the playoff with a win in this game. This team does not have the feel, or advanced stats, of a team that will go undefeated, but a win would seriously increase the chances of that happening.

If USC wins: The Trojans are by no means “dead”, but a win in this game, given their poor play in October, would, at some level, have a Lazarus-like feel to it. USC still has a lot to play for, and a win would get the Trojans back in numerous conversations (conference championship, New Year’s Six, etc.).

What is likely to happen, and why: Remember that bit about 8-0 teams and the difficulty of winning the ninth game. As bad as USC has played of late, this game is in the Coliseum, and Washington has a leaky run defense. At worst, it should be a close game. However, the win percentage is the tell here. There is a good chance USC wins this game outright.

1) LSU at Alabama

If LSU wins: Just like last year, an LSU win would give the Tigers the tiebreaker over the Crimson Tide. LSU is not, however, a playoff contender, and Georgia would be the likely opponent in the SEC Championship. Still, a win would at the very least move LSU up in the bowl pecking order.

If Alabama wins: Nick Saban should already be in the running for national Coach of the Year, and a win over LSU should put him on the short list. Alabama’s program is in decline, but in hindsight it is clear that the decline began in 2021, right around the time Clemson started losing steam. The fact that Alabama is favored to win and get to 8-1 is a testament to Nick Saban’s brilliant coaching ability.

What is likely to happen, and why: It’s a night game at Alabama - the Crimson Tide are probably going to win. It might look really ugly, but, then again, LSU’s defense is so bad that maybe it won’t. If this was Team A against Team B, I would look at the advanced stats and say that LSU should have a pregame win percentage in the 40-45% range. But since Alabama is the opponent and Nick Saban is still at the helm, 23% is probably about right.