Week 1 KPI Review
Despite some early jitters, Virginia Tech demonstrates alignment between personnel and strategy in the pass game; offensive line remains a work in progress
Key Performance Indicators
Looking back on Virginia Tech’s 36-17 victory over Old Dominion on Saturday night, the Hokies scored fairly well on one KPI (something in the range of a B-), while they really struggled on the other (more like a D).
Here is a brief rundown of how the numbers shook out, and what it likely portends for the remainder of the season.
Short-to-Medium Passing Game
Overall, the transfer wide receivers played pretty well against ODU. Ali Jennings (80.2) and Jaylin Lane (72.0) were the two highest graded offensive players (via PFF preliminary grades). Grant Wells was third at 71.7.
Da’quan Felton (58.2) was quiet for most of the game, but he did have the one big catch and run.
But for some early drops (two by Dae’Quan Wright, one by Lane), Wells would have likely had an improved QB rating at every depth.
What really stands out is the near doubling of Wells’s NFL QB Rating on passes that travelled 10 to 19 yards in the air.
The success of swing passes to the running backs was also a pleasant surprise, and a primary driver of Wells’s improved rating behind the line of scrimmage.
Remember last year the late interception that bounced off Jalen Holston’s hands and straight in the air. Bhayshul Tuten and Malachi Thomas demonstrated much surer hands.
From a verticality standpoint, the passing attack was much more diverse in week 1 of the 2023 season than it was last year, with 47% of passes travelling at least 10 yards downfield, compared to just 27% in 2022.
This offense is clearly much improved, year-on-year. Realistically, Tech should have scored at least 50 points against ODU, based on the opportunities they let slip away deep in Monarch territory.
With this offense, Tech would have likely gone 7-4 last year (with wins over ODU, NC State, Georgia Tech, and Miami), with an outside shot at 8-3 (Tech trailed West Virginia by just six points entering the 4th quarter).
Offensive Line Push
The offensive line did an excellent job passing blocking against ODU, but struggled to generate a push and open holes. Last year’s Rush Play EPA was low at 0.08. On Saturday night, that stat was -0.18. Eek!
Offensive line yards in 2022 were 2.97 vs. 2.27 against ODU over the weekend, and a host of other advanced stats are reflective of that (see the glossary below for definitions of each stat).
There were, however, two positives up front.
First, the o-line did not allow the struggles in the run game to affect their pass blocking. Grant Wells enjoyed consistent protection from start to finish.
The other positive is that no penalties were called on the offensive line. Last year’s epidemic of pre-snap flags was the key indicator suggesting the players’ minds were tying up their feet. That does not appear to be the case this year.
As a result, it is reasonable to expect the run game to expand, evolve, and become more complex as the season progresses. This is a much more advantageous position than they were in last year, when the offense was too vanilla, but the blocking concepts too complex.
*Glossary
Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).
Line Yards attempts to measure the number of running yards which are attributed to the offensive line. Yards are weighted as follows:
losses - 120%
0-4 yards from LOS - 100%
5-10 yards from LOS - 50%
11+ yards from LOW - 0+
Power Success measures the percentage of running plays on 3rd or 4th down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a 1st down or scored a TD. 1st and 2nd down and goal plays within the 2 yard line are also included.
Success Rate is an efficiency metric that determines the success of a play. Successful plays meet one of the following criteria:
the offense scored
1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
Stuff Rate is the percentage of running plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Hidden Variables
Since, by definition, these variables are difficult to quantify, we’ll consider them in a binary fashion (true/false).
Player Health
False - With the possible exception of CJ McCray, who played only a handful of snaps, and Nick Gallo, who missed the game, injuries coming out of camp were not an issue for the Hokies (like they were last year).
Jitters
True - There were early drops and inaccurate throws during the first quarter. The offense looked much better once the team settled down in the second quarter.
Strength and Conditioning
True - Tech looked and played bigger, faster, and stronger than ODU. It wasn’t immediate, but by the end of the third quarter, the Hokies had asserted their physical dominance, and they won going away.