Week 1 Games of Interest
Week 1 Games of Interest
What to take note of beyond the ODU game
With excitement around the first full week of games continuing to build, one could forgive the casual fan for neglecting the world beyond Blacksburg.
No depth chart release quite matches that for week 1. Hold the presses, a true freshman is in the two-deep at wide receiver!
Imagine the yawn that same statement will undoubtedly receive in mid-October.
As anxious as everyone is for kickoff on Saturday night, there are a host of great games this weekend. Here is a brief guide to the five that matter most to the Hokies.
5) Colorado at TCU
Importance to VT: Coach Prime makes his debut in the P5 this week. He brought some top-flight talent with him from Jackson St. and turned over a significant portion of the roster in the offseason. Few are expecting big things in year 1, but Colorado has been so bad for so long, that if Sanders were to get them to a bowl this year, it would re-wire expectations among fanbases nationwide. As a result, Pry & Co. could face increased pressure to win more, sooner.
If Colorado wins: We will see a media firestorm like nothing else. It’s not that the Horned Frogs are unbeatable, but they are expected to again compete for the Big 12 title. Colorado has no business winning this game.
If TCU wins: All eyes will be on Coach Prime, regardless of the outcome of the game. One expects Sanders to be as mesmerizing in defeat as he is in victory.
What is likely to happen, and why: Colorado’s offense was as bad as Virginia Tech’s in 2022. And the Colorado offense might have been better than the Colorado defense. The two immediate questions are:
How well will Colorado’s secondary perform? The Buffaloes will feature perhaps the best young cornerback combination in the nation. Can they create turnovers or at least dissuade TCU from throwing the ball on early downs?
Will the Buffs be any good in the trenches?
Bet on the former before you do the latter. And that will likely be Colorado’s undoing in this game.
4) West Virginia at Penn St.
Importance to VT: The Hokies compete with both schools for recruits. Penn St. has been a major presence in the commonwealth since James Franklin took over as head coach nearly a decade ago. Neal Brown is in a situation similar to what Justin Fuente faced in 2021, with consensus opinion shifting from if to when he will be fired. A new head coach at WVU could shake up recruiting in the region.
If West Virginia wins: Neal Brown gets a reprieve. He’ll need at least seven to eight wins to hold on for another year. No one is penciling this one in to the win column, so one week into the season, Brown would essentially be +1. With expectations in Morgantown hovering in the five win neighborhood, Brown will essentially need to win one unexpected game each month - a tall order.
If Penn St. wins: Sentiment will depend on how the game went. If the actual scores for the two teams are close to the model’s score prediction, 37-13 in favor of Penn St., then everyone in Happy Valley should be content. However, if this one is closer than expected, in the short-term critics might suggest the Nittany Lions are overrated. At a higher level, this is year 2 for Manny Diaz as defensive coordinator, and with more ownership over the defense will come increased criticism if it underperforms.
What is likely to happen, and why: West Virginia has remained sneaky good on the ground post-Rich Rod, and that was true again in 2022. If the Mountaineers are able to hang around for a while, it will be because they find some success on the ground, where Penn St. was, relatively speaking, a little weaker in 2022. That said, the Nittany Lions were strong on defense last year and figure to be again this year. Combined with an able passing game, where the WVU defense showed holes last year, Penn St. is well positioned to jump out to a quick lead and cruise to victory.
3) South Carolina at North Carolina
Importance to VT: Virginia Tech competes directly with both teams on the recruiting trail. North Carolina is a conference foe, so ACC prestige is on the line. For as long as Shane Beamer is South Carolina’s head coach, the results of their games will be important to Hokie fans and serve as a point of comparison for the Tech head coach.
If South Carolina wins: The Gamecocks could be in for a very good season. Shane Beamer has built a lot of momentum in Columbia, but in each of his first two seasons as head coach the Gamecocks have gotten off to slow starts. A win out of the gates against a ranked opponent could serve as a springboard to a great season.
If North Carolina wins: Speculation will heat up about the possibility of the Tar Heels challenging Clemson and Florida St. for league supremacy. Of course such talk would be premature, but since when has that gotten in the way of a narrative that might juice increased interest in the conference.
What is likely to happen, and why: UNC is a two-point favorite on a neutral field in Charlotte. One has to imagine the fan split will be at least 60/40 in favor of the Gamecocks, who have a much more engaged fan base (in football). Ultimately, the game will hinge on whether or not the Tar Heels can protect QB Drake Maye and the extent to which their defense has (or has not) improved since last year. This one has all the makings of a four quarter game, and don’t be surprised if this is the one game in five in which the model predicts a home team victory and the away team actually wins. Finally, watch for early signs of a sophomore slump for Maye, which would certainly doom the Tar Heels.
2) Clemson at Duke
Importance to VT: Clemson is the face of the conference, and while Duke was much improved in 2022, nationally, the program gets little respect.
If Clemson wins: Ho hum. The Tigers are expected to win comfortably. Anything less than a double digit win would be cause for concern.
If Duke wins: The ACC will instantly become a much weaker conference, at least in national perception. Playoff hopes will rest on Florida St. Critics questioning Dabo Sweeney’s aversion to the transfer portal will get amplified.
What is likely to happen, and why: The model forecasts a fairly comfortably 34-17 Clemson win. If the 2022 advanced stats are at least reflective of the overall strengths and weaknesses of each team, the difference will be the Clemson defense, especially against the run. If Duke is not able to run the ball, they will struggle to string together long drives. Look for their points to come off explosive plays in the pass game, the one area of relative weakness for the Clemson defense in 2022.
1) LSU at Florida St.
Importance to VT: For all the hype about Florida St. during the offseason, they will start the season as underdogs against LSU. This is a major prestige game for the ACC. The Seminoles are the highest ranked team in the preseason AP and Coaches polls, while LSU is still a notch below Georgia and Alabama in the SEC.
If LSU wins: It is probably Clemson or bust as far as the playoff goes for the ACC. Coming just after the addition of football afterthoughts Stanford, Cal, and SMU to the league, a Florida St. loss would help cement the league’s “lesser than” status compared to the Big Ten and SEC.
If Florida St. wins: The Seminole hype will enter the stratosphere. Every other game on their schedule, except Clemson, will immediately be written off as a win. While a win would validate all the offseason praise, it might also make the Seminoles vulnerable to being upset via the classic look-ahead, or trap, game.
What is likely to happen, and why: In 2022, Florida St. ran the ball on 54% of plays, compared to just 47% by LSU. If such a disparity were to again exist in 2023, it would put the onus on each team to grab an early lead. However, given that both defenses defended the pass well in 2022 (EPA on pass plays of 0.14 for FSU and 0.13 for LSU), there is likely to be an early battle to establish the line of scrimmage and get the run game going. It may take a second quarter turnover to tilt the advantage in one direction, likely that of LSU. With so much riding on this game, expect both teams to go all out, which always raises the possibility of an injury to a key player, which would completely change the complexion of the game.