Virginia Tech's Quest for the College Football Playoff Begins in Nashville
Hokies heavy favorites in opening game at Vanderbilt
The quietest offseason in recent Virginia Tech memory has finally yielded to the start of the 2024 college football season.
The Hokies will face Vanderbilt at noon on Saturday in a game that, by the numbers, looks pretty straight forward.
Still, there is one metric that I believe deserves more attention than it has received. If the game ends up being close, or the Commodores pull the upset, this is the metric that will have foreseen the outcome.
Tech’s team talent bottomed out in 2023
The Hokies not only won three more games in 2023 than they did in 2022, but they showed vast improvement despite a numerically less talented team, as measured by 247Sports’ team talent metric.
This year, Tech is #52 in team talent, up from #59 last year, but still a far cry from its #34 ranking in 2000.
So, how can expectations be so high for a team with such middling talent?
Cohesiveness (most of the starters return from 2023)
Culture (guys like the program and the coaches, and everyone is seemingly bought-in)
Development (many of the players have spent multiple off-seasons in Blacksburg, and after a few down years, the developmental aspect of the program appears once again to be on the rise)
Still, if Tech were to struggle some at Vandy, it would be because the Hokies are only slightly more talented across the board. And when I say talented, what I really mean is the demand level for the players on the two rosters when they were recruited is nearly equal.
Even though 2023 PFF grades were pretty low across the board for Vandy, a repeat performance is far from guaranteed, given the significant turnover on the coaching staff.
If scheme, and fit for scheme, are improved this year, Vanderbilt will be a better opponent than most people expect because talent-wise, they should be a four-to-six-win team in 2024 (and the win total would be higher if they did not play in the SEC).
Every other metric favors Tech
Outside of the team talent hiccup, every other advanced metric points to a comfortable Virginia Tech win.
After converging in 2022 in overall SP+, the Hokies are once again separating themselves from Vanderbilt, as they look to reverse a 25-year downward trend, which began in earnest 15 years ago.
The Hokies enter the game full of confidence, healthy, and sporting an 82.4% pregame win percentage.
Tech is a 13.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 48, which means Las Vegas is expecting a 31-17 Tech win. My updated model has the Hokies covering the spread with a 33-16, field goal friendly, win.
The Hokies have a decisive advantage in every phase of the game.
The Tech offense, currently in the 74th percentile in SP+, will have a significant advantage over the Commodore defense, which is in the 23rd percentile.
The gap in SP+ will be similar when Vanderbilt has the ball, as the Hokie defense (75th percentile) should have little trouble containing the Vandy offense (35th percentile).
Tech’s biggest advantage comes in special teams, where the Hokies are in the 93rd percentile and Vanderbilt is in the 44th. Expect the Hokies to make at least one game-changing, special teams play on Saturday.
Finally, despite the recent slide in team talent, Tech has still had five times more players drafted into the NFL since 2020 than Vanderbilt (10 vs. 2). And the 2024 Hokies feature a number of guys who will be playing on Sundays in the not-too-distant-future.
Final thoughts
Some analysts see utility in breaking down matchups based on 2023 PFF grades.
I do not.
Vanderbilt has new coaches and will be running a lot of new schemes. The players may be better (or worse) fits for these schemes.
Players on both teams may be leaving camp nursing hidden injuries that will affect their play negatively. The inverse can also be true - guys who played hurt last season (resulting in lower grades) may be back to 100%.
Inevitable position changes and non-linear individual development, which are all the more acute in the transfer portal era, would also conspire to paint an inaccurate picture of what will transpire on Saturday.
For these reasons, I have stuck to high-level, 2024 advanced statistics and historical trends. As the season progresses and data accumulate, increased granularity will make games more predictable.
But the unpredictability of week 1 is part of its charm. After a long offseason of hype-driven expectations, it is finally time to see what the 2024 Hokies can do on the field.