Virginia Tech Prepares for a Lesser Version of Itself
If you thought Virginia Tech's offensive line was bad, and if you thought Boston College's was worse, wait 'til you get a look at Georgia Tech's
Whoever lines up at quarterback for Georgia Tech, ooh, I pity the fool. Remember all those sacks the Hokies racked up against Boston College? Remember Phil Jurkovec’s frustration at all the hits he was taking? According to PFF, Boston College’s pass blocking grade for the year is 58.8. Georgia Tech’s pass blocking grade is 38.4.
THIRTY-EIGHT POINT FOUR!
Georgia Tech’s pass blocking grade, 50.9, bests BC’s 42.6 (and Virginia Tech’s 46.7), but is still terrible. This Yellow Jacket offensive line is so hideous that it is really only rivaled by one other in the ACC - Virginia’s. They have the ninth worst passing grade in FBS, which is good enough for fourth worst among Power 5 schools.
If you remember nothing else from this article remember this - Georgia Tech’s offensive line is a wet paper bag. If they do not look like it on Saturday, something is very wrong with Virginia Tech’s defense.
Now then, let’s move on and dissect the other key facets of this matchup.
Mirror Image
The two Techs have a lot in common this year. At the highest level, that means two bad teams with pitiful offenses and decent defenses. If the game comes down to special teams, Georgia Tech is likely to win. They field a B- special teams unit per PFF, compared to Virginia Tech’s D unit. (Did you ever think Virginia Tech would have a D-level special teams unit? Me neither.)
FPI doesn’t think much of either team, ranking them both in the low 90s nationally, with expected wins around 3.5. Virginia Tech has recruited a bit better than Georgia Tech of late, and the Hokies hold a decisive advantage in NFL draft picks over the last give years (14 to 4).
Virginia Tech has a first year coach in Brent Pry. Georgia Tech, having fired Geoff Collins a few weeks back, will have a first year coach next season. The Hokies have been trending downward as a team since 2019, whereas the Yellow Jackets experienced a rapid fall in 2019 following the retirement of Paul Johnson. Since then, GT has remained a consistent bottom feeder.
Virginia Tech has a slight edge on the field, with higher PFF grades for the starters at four out of seven position groups. The Virginia Tech defensive line (69.0) should feast on the Georgia Tech offensive line (52.8). On the flip side, the GT defensive line has a smaller advantage over the VT offensive line (64.3 to 57.2).
Neither team takes much advantage of opportunities (both average less than three points per opportunity), but Virginia Tech has a one point higher points per opportunity allowed. Translation - Peter Moore needs to punt well and VT must win the field position game.
All of this is to say that points should be at a premium, and if Virginia Tech has the ever so slightest of edges on paper, the game being played in Lane Stadium is probably the determinative factor.
Eyes on the Run Game
Georgia Tech’s biggest advantage is at running back, where Hassan Hall is quietly having a solid season. In fact, both Hall and his backup, Dontae Sims, are averaging at least five yards per carry. Both backs have runs of at least 50 yards this season, so the homerun threat is there. (Conversely, those big runs inflate their yards per carry, ala Keshawn King.) Virginia Tech, meanwhile, lists King at the top of the depth chart, but I’m not convinced that he is 100% or even particularly close. He did not play last week, saw only seven snaps against Miami, and has played more than 30 snaps in only one game this season - the opener at ODU. I expect Jalen Holston to start and see the majority of snaps at running back.
The X factor here is Bryce Duke. He has played in every game this season, but in only three did he line up in the backfield, and against NC State he played precisely one snap at running back. If Duke started and got 20 carries, do you have any idea how he would perform? I don’t. What I do know is that Virginia Tech will try to generate some yards on the ground and I do not see them doing that with the trio of King-Holston-Chance Black. If not Duke, then…Grant Wells better strap on his big boy shoulder pads. He might be asked to do his best Jerod Evans impression.
Turnovers
The single biggest thing to watch for this week is turnovers. Outside of Nickel KJ Wallace, every Georgia Tech starting defender is at least 6’2”. This length, especially in the secondary, could be problematic for Virginia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are +12 in turnover margin this year, while the Hokies are -5. That is terrifying. This could easily be a four turnover game for VT, and not because of any major mistakes.
Given their length, I expected to see more battled balls and passes defended for Georgia Tech, but Virginia Tech leads in those categories, as well as forced fumbles. The big difference is interceptions, where the Yellow Jackets enjoy a 9-2 advantage. The takeaway here is that Georgia Tech’s length reduces throwing windows, and when they get their hands on the ball, they often take it away.
Gut Feelings
The model likes Virginia Tech 20-12, and this week I agree. That would be two combined touchdowns and four field goals. Virginia Tech has played two good quarters of offense in their last eight and managed 20 and 21 points for those efforts. Georgia Tech’s defense is not as good as Miami’s or NC State’s, but it’s better than West Virginia’s and North Carolina’s, and those two teams both held VT to 10 points. On the other side, Georgia Tech last scored more than 20 points on October 8, against Duke, needing overtime to notch 23 points. Prolific scorers of points these Jackets are not.
Virginia Tech comes into this game with an ELO advantage of 86, similar, if just short of, the advantages they had in their previous two games with Georgia Tech.
Geoff Collins-led Georgia Tech teams average 8.5 points in two games against Virginia Tech. Jeff Sims will, supposedly, start this week at QB for the Yellow Jackets, but he missed last week’s game with an ankle injury and I doubt he has fully recovered. Sims has graded out barely above baseline this season (64.4), and will probably perform at a lower level sans mobility. If he cannot go, or gets reinjured, Georgia Tech’s backup is like NC State’s Jack Chambers, with no MJ Morris waiting in the wings. Without Sims, the Hokies would need to commit something on the order of 20+ penalties and 2+ turnovers to lose. I know, I’m tempting fate by even writing that sentence, but the point stands. In a month with some winnable games for Virginia Tech, this one is the most winnable.
Record outright: 5-3
Record against the spread: 4-4
Record over/under: 3-5