Virginia Tech CFP - Semi-Finals
Played on neutral fields, the two semi-final games reveal the importance of strength of schedule in preparing teams to make deep playoff runs
Note: All predicted scores and game stats come directly from the model. Scenarios and narratives from simulated games are fictional, but are an approximation based on my reading of the model-generated data combined with how the teams performed in real life, including their strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies. For example, if we see that a team lost by two touchdowns and threw a lot more passes than it averaged during the season, we can assume that it got down early, failed to establish the run, and started airing it out in an effort to get back into the game.
In August 2004, with Virginia Tech about to begin its first season in the ACC, conventional wisdom had it that the Hokies were drifting toward mediocrity. The media picked Tech to finish mid-pack in the conference, and hopes were not much higher in Blacksburg. Little did we all know that that season would be the first of eight straight in which the Hokies would win at least 10 games. Over that stretch they would play in five BCS bowls, although they only won one. During the streak, there were two distinct cores of players. The Vince Hall, Xavier Adibi, Josh Morgan, Eddie Royal teams and the Tyrod Taylor, Danny Coale, Jarrett Boykin teams. Of course there was some overlap in 2007, but for the most part, the teams were led by different players. In the moment, 2005 and 2010 felt like peak years - seasons in which the Hokies could really challenge for the National Championship. In contrast, 2004 and 2009 felt like ascending years - great teams that had yet to peak. Time and distance has me reconsidering this whole construct. How convenient then that the seeding and early round games would give us a semi-final that will decide the two best teams of the two biggest post-Michael Vick peaks.
Semi-Final 1
#3 seed VT 2010 at #2 seed VT 2009
On paper, according to conventional stats, the 2010 team was better than 2009 team. The Hokies went 8-0 in the ACC in 2010 and won the conference. That said, the 2009 team was sneaky good. Tyrod Taylor didn’t really come into his own as a passer until midway through the season, but Ryan Williams was electric all year. The 2009 team also had Jason Worilds at DE, and while he only had 4.5 sacks that year, he created such havoc that he became a second round draft pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers following the season.
CFP semi-final games are too often blowouts. That was definitely not the case in the matchup between the 2009 and 2010 Virginia Tech Hokies. The two teams went back and forth in the first half, with the 2009 team scoring first and later taking a 14-7 lead early in the second quarter. The 2009 team had the ball and the lead with 9:47 to go in the second quarter when Tyrod Taylor avoided a rush and took off down the field. Rather than slide, Taylor extended his body to try to get the first down. In so doing, he was tackled from his right side, and the ball was jarred loose. In addition to loosing the fumble, Taylor landed wrong on his ankle as he was tackled. He limped off the field gingerly and did not return for the rest of the half.
Meanwhile, the 2010 team got its offense revved up and scored the last 10 points of the half, including a 35-yard field goal as time expired, to take a 17-14 lead into the break.
During the extended halftime, all the talk centered on Taylor’s injured ankle and whether Frank Beamer would elect to pull Logan Thomas’s redshirt. The consensus opinion was that backup QB Juju Clayton would not be able to lead a comeback. In two drives at quarterback in the second quarter, Clayton was 1-3 passing for 2 yards (a wide receiver screen).
The 2010 team took the opening kickoff of the third quarter and marched 71 yards down the field, capped off by a Darren Evans five-yard touchdown run. The 2010 team, having extended their lead to 24-14, could almost taste a championship game berth. With a heavily taped ankle, Tyrod Taylor began warming up on the 2009 team’s sideline, but he would soon sit down. That’s because Dyrell Roberts completely changed the complexion of the game with a 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown.
With the score now 24-21, the 2010 team embarked on a 14-play drive that chewed up nearly eight minutes. The 2009 team got a much needed goal line stand from its defense, conceding a field goal that extended the 2010 team’s lead to 27-21, but nonetheless kept it a one-score game.
Taylor returned for the next drive, but, walking with a noticeable limp, did not attempt a pass. Rather, he handed the ball off to Ryan Williams three times, with the final carry going for one yard on 3rd and 2. With more than six minutes remaining in the game, Beamer elected to punt and play defense.
After two quick first downs, it looked like the 2010 team was on its way down the field to secure the win. However, a safe wide receiver screen call turned disastrous when Marcus Davis fumbled as he fought for extra yardage. VT 2009 linebacker Bruce Taylor fell on the ball at the 2010 team’s 47-yard line.
On the ensuing drive, Taylor hit Ryan Williams on screen pass into a blitz that went for 34 yards. From the 13=yard line, Offensive Coordinator Bryan Stinespring called five straight running plays for Williams, the last of which resulted in the go-ahead touchdown.
Now down 28-27, with 31 seconds remaining and no timeouts, the 2010 team drove to midfield in 29 seconds. However, the last chance heave for the endzone was knocked away, and the 2009 team emerged victorious. Ryan Williams, who carried the ball a career-high 41 times for 173 yards, was named the player of the game.
Semi-Final 2
#4 seed VT 2004 at #1 seed VT 2005
The main difference between the 2004 and 2005 teams, from a personnel standpoint, was the quarterback position. Bryan Randall won ACC Player of the Year as a senior in 2004. He was the unquestioned leader of the team and displayed great toughness throughout the season. Vick was suspended for the year, meaning that true freshman Sean Glennon was the second string QB. Randall could not get hurt, and he didn’t. He played every meaningful snap and was the main offensive threat for the Hokies.
In 2005, Marcus Vick was named First-team All ACC, but lost out to Wake Forest’s Chris Barclay for Player of the Year. Randall’s TD/INT ratio was a little better, while Vick completed a higher percentage of his passes. Ultimately, the difference boiled down to composure in high pressure situations. Randall was cool, calm, and collected in big games against USC, Miami, and Auburn, willing his team to stay in each game. In contrast, Vick lost his composure in games against Miami, Florida St., and Louisville. His stomp on Elvis Dumerville in the Gator Bowl against the Cardinals ended his days in Blacksburg, and for all intents and purposes his football career, as he was an undrafted, short-term practice squad player in the NFL. I mention all this because it is critical in understanding how the second quarterfinal played out.
The 2004 team took the opening kickoff and drove down to the 28-yard line of the 2005 team before the drive stalled. A Brandon Pace 45-yard field goal gave the fourth seed a 3-0 lead less than five minutes into the game. The 2005 team went three-and-out on its opening possession, and Eddie Royal returned the punt 39 yards to the edge of the redzone. The offense took advantage of the good field position, with Randall completing a seven-yard pass to tight end Jeff King to take a 10-0 lead.
From there the game settled into a defensive slugfest. Both quarterbacks faced constant pressure, and the running games only appeared in fits and starts. With 4:15 remaining in the second quarter, defensive end Darryl Tapp hit Randall just as he released a second down pass. The ball fluttered right into the waiting arms of Xavier Adibi, who returned it 16 yards to the 2004 team’s 41-yard line.
Trailing by 10 and badly needing a score before halftime, VT 2005 drove down to the four-yard line. Facing third and goal, Marcus Vick looked right on a designed rollout. His first read was covered and a blitzing Vince Hall made sure Vick didn’t get a chance to look to his second read, sacking him back at the 11-yard line. The 2005 team settled for a FG and a 10-3 deficit at half-time.
VT 2005 got the ball first in the third quarter and netted a field goal to draw within 10-6. After stopping the 2004 team, VT 2005 got the ball back and was driving when Vick made an ill-advised throw back across his body. Safety Vinnie Fuller intercepted the pass, and returned it 27 yards. With great field position following the sudden change, Randall led another short touchdown drive, this time scrambling in on a QB keeper from three yards out.
Now trailing 17-6 late in the third quarter, the 2005 offense, keyed by 22-yard Cedric Humes rush up the middle, drove into VT 2004 territory. Again, a key sack, this time by Chris Ellis, ended a promising drive. The 2005 team salvaged a 49-yard field goal to make it a one score game.
From there the teams traded punts. The 2005 team got the ball back with just under five minutes to play, still trailing 17-9. A first down holding call put them behind the chains, and after a second down screen pass was snuffed out for no gain, Vick and the 2005 offense faced 3rd and 20. In desperation mode, Vick looked long for David Clowney, who initially had a step on cornerback Eric Green. The pass hung up in the air a bit, though, and Green recovered enough to tip the ball up in the air. Garnell Wilds, in the game as a fifth DB, snagged the ball out of the air and took it to the house to secure the victory for the 2004 team.
Final Thoughts
The two semi-final winners had one thing in common - they were both unflappable. They did not win every game, and in fact, both lost their opening game. It is, rather, who they lost to and how they lost that made all the difference. They played everyone close. There were no meltdowns. They did not just beat up on bad teams. They both went toe-to-toe with the eventual National Champions in the first week of the season.
Meanwhile, the 2005 team, when it lost, lost ugly. The 2010 team faced only limited punishment from the model for the JMU loss, as FCS games are not included. The only hint of that loss was the ELO drop. The 2010 team faced two great opponents. They lost to Boise St. in a week 1 thriller and got blown out by Andrew Luck-led Stanford in the Orange Bowl (after trailing 13-12 at halftime). In sum, the two teams that will play for the VT CFP Championship each lost three games, but none of those losses was a blowout, and they played really tough schedules. In semi-final matchups against teams that were their equals on paper, that made all the difference. Next week’s title game should be a good one!