Virginia Tech CFP - 1st Round Games
The quest to determine the best VT team from the last 20 years begins.
Note: All predicted scores and game stats come directly from the model. Scenarios and narratives from simulated games are fictional, but are an approximation based on my reading of the model-generated data combined with how the teams performed in real life, including their strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies. For example, if we see that a team lost by two touchdowns and threw a lot more passes than it averaged during the season, we can assume that it got down early, failed to establish the run, and started airing it out in an effort to get back into the game.
Finally, the coding, testing, and quality assurance on the model is complete. It’s time to simulate some games and find out which is the best Virginia Tech team from the last 20 years. Just a reminder, the format follows what news reports suggest will be the next CFP format. First round games involve seeds 5-12 and are played at the higher seed’s stadium (in this case always Lane Stadium, obviously, but the higher seed gets the home team benefit within the model).
Game 1
#12 seed VT 2015 at #5 seed VT 2007
Frank Beamer’s final team seemed pretty average in real-time. The 2015 campaign began with excitement, as Tech opened the season by playing host to defending National Champion Ohio St., a team it upset the previous season. That excitement evaporated the moment Michael Brewer went down with an injury, early in the third quarter. Brendan Motley took the QB reins and in subsequent games surprised many with his playmaking abilities. These Hokies, however, racked up a lot of early losses, and just before the midway point of the season, Beamer announced his retirement, effective at the end of the year.
So how did that team make this playoff? Two of its six losses were in overtime against ranked teams (the game against #23 Duke went to 4 OTs). Two other losses (both one score games) came in driving rainstorms, and Motley had to play hurt late in the Pitt game. All of that is to say the 2015 team could have easily been 9-4, or even 10-3.
Just looking at the conventional statistics, one would expect a close game between the 2015 team and the 2007 team. There are some key differences, though. The 2007 team played a much more difficult schedule (at #2 LSU, vs. #2 BC, at #22 Clemson, at #16 Virginia, vs. #12 BC in the ACC Championship game, and vs. #8 Kansas in the Orange Bowl). What felt like an underachieving offense at times back in 2007 was in retrospect a very hit or miss unit that faced really tough competition. Tech’s 2007 team finished the regular season by scoring 40, 44, 33, and 30 points against Miami, FSU, #16 UVA, and #12 BC, respectively. However, this team also scored 17 points or less in four games (East Carolina, #2 LSU, UNC, and #2 BC).
Therefore, it should not come as much surprise that the 2007 team dominated the 2015 team in a game that was not as close as the 30-20 score suggests. Michael Brewer hit on a few big passing plays, but was under constant pressure all game long, with sacks dragging down the team’s rushing totals. Fumbles (two lost) were also an issue, as the 2015 Hokies struggled to consistently move the ball. They hung around, but were never really a threat to pull the upset.
For the 2007 team, it was a workmanlike effort, with the offense slowly grinding through the 2015 defense. The 2007 offense ran 86 plays, including 52 runs, as they controlled the clock. Third-down conversions were a big part of this win, as the 2007 team’s predicted yards per play (4.6) was actually slightly less than the 2015 team’s.
Talent won out here, but the 2007 team’s flaws seem bound to trip it up eventually. The Sean Glennon/Tyrod Taylor combo only completed 50% of its passes on the day, and the 2015 defense is one of, if not the, weakest defense in the playoff. The 2007 team will likely lean on its own strong defense in the quarterfinals, but as the #5 seed, there is no telling as to whether that will be enough to advance.
Game 2
#11 seed VT 2008 at #6 seed VT 2006
Game 2 featured a matchup of two teams that, prior to 2022, had amongst the worst offenses fielded by Virginia Tech since the turn of the millennium. The 2006 team was loaded at receiver and featured peak Brendan Ore at tailback, but the offensive line really struggled and, for the first time since 2001, there was not a mobile quarterback to make something out of nothing when things broke down. Defensively, the 2006 Hokies were as stingy as they come. However, the offense, which averaged less than 300 yards and more than two turnovers per game, often put the defense in tough positions, which ultimately led to losses (see: Chik-fil-A Bowl, in which the defense gave up just 200 yards to Georgia and VT still lost 31-24, mainly because the Hokies only gained 189 yards, and they turned the ball over four times).
The 2008 team was young everywhere on offense and counted on its experienced defense to hang in games. After four years of Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi at linebacker, Brett Warren and Purnell Sturdivant took over as starters in their redshirt senior seasons. Stephan Virgil and Macho Harris were lockdown corners and Kam Chancellor manned the deep secondary. Offensively, this team was a mess for the first two-thirds of the season. Gone were the four experienced receivers from 2007, replaced by freshmen Jarrett Boykin, Danny Coale, and Dyrell Roberts. Sophomore QB Tyrod Taylor and first-year starting tailback Darren Evans did most of the damage when the Hokies had the ball. The 2008 team ultimately won the ACC Championship game and the Orange Bowl, but most of its wins were ugly, and the team did lose four games.
In the VT CFP matchup between these two offensively challenged teams, the 2006 team scored just 21 points and nonetheless won comfortably. Neither team was able to generate a consistent rushing attack, and it was the battle out wide that determined the winner. Macho Harris played for both teams, but on the 2006 team he combined with Brandon Flowers to shut down the young receivers for 2008 Virginia Tech, who were still learning the offense even at season’s end. Tyrod Taylor completed 19 of 32 passes for the 2008 squad, but everything was underneath, resulting in a paltry 4.4 yards per pass attempt.
On the other side, the 2006 team, with five good upperclass receivers (four of which would play in the NFL), was able to isolate the 2008 linebackers and safeties on a few intermediate throws down the middle of the field, one of which went for a touchdown. Once they got out to the early lead, with the 2008 team showing no threat of a downfield passing attack, the 2006 team was content to run the ball, throw wide receiver screens, and generally avoid risky play calls. Still, the 2006 team turned the ball over three times, two of which were fumbles. They got away with such sloppiness in this game, but against the high powered 2010 team in the quarterfinals, they will likely be made to pay for any and all turnovers.
Game 3
#10 seed VT 2011 at #7 seed VT 2016
The 2011 Hokies entered the ACC Championship Game with an 11-1 record and ranked #5 in the country, but they lost to Clemson for the second time that season. Then, in the Sugar Bowl, Danny Coale caught the ball in overtime, but instead of rewarding the Hokies with a touchdown, the referees gave them an opportunity to miss a field goal, which they did, and the rest is history. That year, the Hokies started high four-star level players at quarterback (Logan Thomas) and tailback (David Wilson), had four outstanding wide receivers (Coale, Boykin, Marcus Davis, and D.J. Coles), and a bunch of seniors on the offensive line. The offense lacked depth, though, and the play calling felt dated compared to the new spread attacks proliferating across the country. The defense was good, but they were young.
The 2016 Hokies featured the best Virginia Tech offense since the 2000, Michael Vick-led squad. Jerod Evans rewrote the record book at quarterback, and with Isaiah Ford, Cam Phillips, Bucky Hodges, and Sam Rogers, the Hokies were an exciting team to watch in Justin Fuente’s first season as head coach. Defensively, the Hokies looked like a Bud Foster unit for the first time in several seasons. Woody Baron wreaked havoc from his defensive tackle position, and there were no glaring weaknesses for opposing teams to attack. The main warts were offensive mistakes, especially bad snaps from center and stupid penalties, of which quite a few were accumulated by future NFL All-Pro Wyatt Teller.
In a surprising outcome, the 2016 team handled the 2011 team with ease. Jerod Evans had a game to remember, completing 80% of his passes for 245 yards while also leading the Hokies rushing attack, which went for just over 200 yards on 41 carries.
The 2016 Hokies took the lead early and never trailed. Woody Baron and Nigel Williams blew up run play after run play, and David Wilson was never able to get going. A second quarter safety was indicative of the type of day the 2011 team had on the ground. Wilson took a handoff at the two-yard line and, finding no hole up the middle, attempted to bounce the play outside. Tremaine Edmunds came around the edge, beat the block by tight end Chris Drager, and tackled Wilson a yard deep in the endzone. That extended the VT 2016 lead to 19-3 and forced the 2011 team to abandon the run. For the game, Thomas completed 26 of 44 passes for 215 yards. with an interception. VT 2011 was held to just 289 yards of total offense, and the team bowed out of the playoff quietly in the least exciting first round game.
Game 4
#9 seed VT 2017 at #8 seed VT 2013
As I suspected, there were not enough data to include the 2003 Hokies in the playoff, so they were replaced by the 2013 team, which though technically the #13 ranked team, took the vacated #8 seed.
The 2013 offense went only as far as Logan Thomas could carry it. The defense, though, was very good. That unit’s high point was the opening game of the season against Alabama in the Georgia Dome. Although Tech lost that game 35-10, Bud Foster’s defense held the two-time defending National Champion Crimson Tide to 206 yards of total offense.
The 2017 Hokies were similar in that they struggled at times on offense, but were stout on defense. In fact, this was the last of the great Bud Foster defenses. The team finished with a 9-4 record, but without goal line stands to preserve wins against West Virginia and Pitt, Justin Fuente’s second team would have been a very pedestrian 7-6.
On the whole, Josh Jackson played well in his only full season as the starting quarterback, but outside of Cam Phillips, the offense lacked weapons at the skill positions. In Fuente’s offense, Travon McMillian was a shell of his 2015 self, and he would transfer to Colorado after the season, where he ran for over 1,000 yards in his final collegiate season.
In the closest of the four first round games, the 2017 Hokies defeated homestanding 2013 Virginia Tech 20-16. Leading 16-13 with six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, the 2013 team was driving with a chance to take a two-score lead. On third-and-seven from the 2017 team’s 21-yard line, Logan Thomas threw a 10-yard post to D.J. Coles, who was hit by Terrell Edmunds just as the pass arrived. The ball popped straight up in the air and was intercepted by Mook Reynolds, who had been bracketing Coles on the play. Down three and backed up deep in their own end, Josh Jackson led his team 89 yards in four and a half minutes to score the game winning touchdown.
Up until that point, Jackson had completed just 9 of 23 passes, but when it mattered most, Jackson delivered. He completed five of seven pass attempts on the final drive, the longest of which was a 45-yard completion to Cam Phillips on a double move (2013 freshman CB Brandon Facyson slipped and fell on the play).
Logan Thomas would get one more chance with 90 seconds to play, but a first down sack put the 2013 team behind the chains and chewed through valuable seconds. Thomas drove his team to nearly midfield and had a chance to throw a Hail Mary at the end, but that pass was knocked away, and with it the last remaining chance for the 2013 team to advance in the playoff.
Final Thoughts
Reflecting on the opening round, a few things really surprised me. In the moment, without the assistance of advanced statistics, it was hard for me to gauge how good the 2008 and 2011 teams were, and how many of their wins were the result of playing so many bad ACC teams. The simulation makes clear that the 2008 team was majorly flawed, and the 2011 team was not as good as its record would suggest.
On the flip side, the 2013 team was probably better than most perceived it to be (look at that 1809 pre-game ELO - it was 55 points higher than that of the 2011 team that won 11 games and played in the Sugar Bowl). I am also intrigued at how the 2015 team was outplayed and outclassed by the 2007 team, yet still ended up only losing by 10. The ELO difference between those two teams was 575 points, which is massive. That would be like 2022 Virginia Tech playing against 2022 Oregon. I can’t imagine that being a 10 point game! So, I think the takeaway is that it really is possible for a team to outperform its record - sometimes the ball, or in this case the breaks (literally), do not go your way.
Looking ahead to the quarterfinals, storylines abound. Justin Fuente’s best teams are slated to play two of Frank Beamer’s best post-Michael Vick teams. The Fuente teams are both seeded lower, but the 2/7 matchup especially holds the potential for an upset. The 4/5 game features Bryan Randall and a bunch of freshmen against Tyrod Taylor and all those freshmen, who were then seniors. I have long believed that the 2004 team was the toughest, most unflappable post-Michael Vick VT team. On paper, it looks like an even matchup, but I fully expect the 2004 team to win by 7-10 points. That team would not have won at 2007 LSU, but it also would not have lost 48-7. Finally, the 3/6 game matches great offense against elite defense, and terrible offense against average defense. They say that defense wins championships, and that is generally true. We’ll see if it also wins quarterfinals.