Virginia Tech and the Folly of Transfer Portal Recruiting Rankings
At first blush these four-star players look great, but like most used cars, there is a reason they are available
Note: Data is sourced from CFDB and, where noted, PFF.
Anyone who has ever bought a used car knows that looks can be deceiving. If the deal appears too good to be true, it probably is.
Chris Coleman of Techsideline noted in an article this week that the Hokies are hosting a couple of portal guys on official visits this weekend.
Josh Wallace is a cornerback from UMass, and Mason Williams is an offensive lineman from Harvard. Neither is likely to excite the fanbase or strike fear into the heart of any SEC team.
A quick check reveals a surprising number of supposedly highly ranked players still unsigned in the portal. With two scholarships available, Tech is still in add mode. So, in addition to the players visiting this weekend, Tech has probably evaluated some of these more highly rated players.
From a nationwide list, we can whittle the numbers down by only including players that play positions of need, match Pry’s recruiting philosophy (they are from within the six-hour radius), or are leaving a program with which Virginia Tech’s coaching staff has a known connection (Note: the keyword here is “known” - coaches have almost unlimited connections within the business, many of which are unknown) :
2 players match the recruiting philosophy
3 players are leaving a program with a connection to the VT coaching staff
I do not know if the Hokies are actually recruiting any of these guys, but from a numbers perspective, they almost certainly would have evaluated all of them. A little tire kicking quickly separates the contenders from the pretenders.
Recruiting Philosophy
There are two players in the recruiting footprint that Virginia Tech has now probably evaluated twice - once under Justin Fuente while they were in high school and once now under Brent Pry.
Ja’Qurious Conley, S, 6’1” 215 lbs.
High School: Northside, Jacksonville, NC, 2020
High School National Ranking: 150
High School Rating: 0.9333, 4-star
Origin: UNC
Entered Portal: April 24
Ja’Qurious Conley started 10 games in 2021. He suffered a major knee injury against Wofford late in the year that not only ended his season, but also limited him to appearing in just two games in 2022.
Conley was very productive against Virginia Tech in the 2021 season opener in Lane Stadium. He finished that game with seven tackles, an interception, and a fumble recovery.
Per PFF, in 2021 he played 495 defensive snaps and graded out at 54.8. His overall grade was weighed down by a 46.2 tackling grade.
Ironically, he was much better as a rotational player during the 2020 Covid season. In 295 snaps, he earned a 65.0 defensive grade and a very strong 84.2 tackling grade.
Conley has two seasons of eligibility remaining. As a true freshman in 2020 he certainly played to his top 150 national ranking coming out of high school. However, a sophomore slump (or was it really just a UNC slump - seemingly everyone gets worse in that defense) followed by significant missed time due to injury makes him far from a sure thing.
At his best, Conley plays with an “aggressive and explosive mentality”. At Virginia Tech, he would likely compete with Jalen Stroman for playing time.
Yousef Mugharbil, OL, 6’5”, 311 lbs.
High School: Murphy, Murphy, NC, 2021
High School National Ranking: 269
High School Rating: 0.9056, 4-star
Origin: Colorado (played at Florida in 2022)
Entered Portal: April 26
An SEC Honor Roll awardee for the Fall 2022 semester, Yousef Mugharbil is entering his redshirt sophomore season. He originally committed to Florida under Dan Mullen, and he had an impressive offer list (Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Penn St., and Tennessee).
After two seasons of not seeing the field, Mugharbil transferred to Colorado. One semester of Coach Prime was enough for him, and now he searching for his third school in six months.
His 247 high school scouting report suggests a possible fit with Ron Crook’s style:
Thick but not oversized as an offensive line prospect. Length and skillset could push him more towards the offensive interior. Nasty run blocker that plays through the whistle. Seeks second level defenders with urgency. Athletic enough to keep his feet and find additional work as a downfield blocker. Very inexperienced as a pass blocker but shows an effective kick step against suspect pass rush threats. Not a sudden mover at the snap. Needs to be more active with his hands. Can get top heavy at times. You don’t see him move big bodies as a high school run blocker.
Given his inexperience, Mugharbil would probably be a depth piece at Virginia Tech in 2023, with the potential to compete for rotational snaps in 2024.
Coaching Connections
Three players come from schools with connections to the VT staff, although those connections are not particularly strong. Ron Crook was on the staff at Cincinnati that originally evaluated Mario Eugenio, J.C. Price still has connections to the defensive coaches at Marshall, his previous stop, and Shane Beamer is South Carolina’s head coach.
Mario Eugenio, EDGE, 6’3”, 245 lbs.
High School: Gaither, Clearwater, FL, 2022
High School National Ranking: 276
High School Rating: 0.9047, 4-star
Origin: Cincinnati
Entered Portal: December 9
Mario Eugenio pleaded guilty to three counts of criminal mischief back in April. The charges stemmed from an incident in which “he smacked three women in the buttocks while riding a Bird scooter”, according to the affidavit. The incidents occurred on three separate days in September 2022.
A hardened criminal? No. An immature kid? Most definitely.
On the field, he has potential. He redshirted in 2022 and has four years of eligibility remaining.
Eugenio’s 247 scouting report describes him as “an effort-based player” who has experience “lining up in both a two and three-point stance” and “knows how to win with his hands and has mastered a few different pass rushing moves”. He projects as “a multi-year contributor for a Power 5 program and potentially an impact player on Saturdays”.
On the field, he sounds like a good fit. Off the field, not so much. He entered the portal in December, and his legal situation was resolved nearly two months ago.
He is still in the portal, which suggests none of the major programs are interested. Perhaps he ends up at a second-chance university like Liberty. Otherwise, he could be a JUCO candidate.
Dink Jackson, S, 6’1”, 175 lbs.
High School: Eau Gallie, Melbourne, FL, 2021
High School National Ranking: 312
High School Rating: 0.8972, 4-star
Origin: Marshall (previously Ole Miss)
Entered Portal: May 1
Originally committed to Florida, Dink Jackson ultimately signed with Ole Miss out of high school, spurring offers from USC, Tennessee, FSU, and West Virginia. After one season, he transferred to Marshall, where he did not register a single snap on defense in 2022.
His 247 high school scouting report suggests he is a great athlete who plays with some measure of abandon:
Will make a hit. Gets downhill in a hurry. Plays a violent brand of football. Can move given 11.04 in the 100-meter dash.
Coverage has always been the question with Jackson. He has the size and speed of a cornerback, but his skillset is more aligned with a linebacker. Indeed, 247 posited that he “has the potential to become a new-age linebacker that doesn’t need to leave the field assuming he gets bigger”.
It’s been two years, and he has not gotten bigger. If his school hopping is any indication, commitment could be the issue. As such, he is not a likely match for the Hokies.
Anthony Rose, S, 6’1”, 190 lbs.
High School: Miami Central, Miami, FL, 2022
High School National Ranking: 402
High School Rating: 0.8922, 4-star
Origin: South Carolina
Entered Portal: April 16
Anthony Rose redshirted in 2022 and did not appear in a game. He was suspended after being charged in March with illegal possession of an AR-15 style weapon. Needless to say, Shane Beamer will not be singing his praises, and Tech will surely take a pass. Rose will likely have to go the JUCO route if he wants to revive his career.
Any takers?
The transfer portal tends to generate two types of headlines: big names and high totals of transfers out from a given school. Neither captures the true nature of the thing.
Ultimately, the portal is about second (and sometimes third) chances. And that is why the recruiting rankings for portal entrants are so poor.
By the numbers alone, each of the five players analyzed in this article would be no brainers. Message boards would light up “Pry brings in another four-star transfer…” and the casual fan would be happy.
Disciplinary actions are sometimes made public, sometimes not, but arrests and convictions are always public. At some point, those metrics need to be incorporated into the overall player ratings. Doing so would certainly help fans and lessen scrutiny on coaches who appear to be passing on “four-star” transfers in favor of career backup three-star players.
I would not be surprised to learn that the Hokies are competing to land Conley and Mugharbil. Neither player has any (public) off the field issues, and both have the requisite talent. Given good coaching and the right fit with regard to scheme, both could be successful.
Still, given their experience in college so far, one has to imagine that their ceiling is quite a bit lower than it appeared when they were high school.