Two Similar Teams Moving in Opposite Directions
Virginia Tech is hitting its stride as it prepares to face Georgia Tech and another backup quarterback
A couple of three-loss teams, both ending in the word Tech, are set to square off at noon on Saturday inside Lane Stadium.
In a world without advanced statistics, the game against Georgia Tech would look like a pretty even matchup.
However, the advanced stats reveal a clear advantage for Virginia Tech, and that is before you consider the Yellow Jackets’ quarterback situation.
What stands out most is the overall SP+ rank of the two teams.
Virginia Tech is up to #23 in the country, while Georgia Tech fell to #48 following last week’s loss to Notre Dame.
The Hokies are buoyed by an offense that has risen to the 83rd percentile. Last year I asked for an average Scot Loeffler-era offense (and got it, and then some). Oh, how the times have changed.
According to SP+, the Hokies are better in all three phases of the game, and the Yellow Jackets are downright heinous on special teams (10th percentile).
All this despite the fact that Georgia Tech has ranked higher than Virginia Tech in team talent in each of the last five years.
When the Hokies are on offense
One thing that stands out immediately when comparing the Hokie offense to the Yellow Jacket defense is that Georgia Tech does not have anyone that Tyler Bowen really needs to game plan around.
Georgia Tech is weakest right up the middle. The defensive tackles and inside linebackers range from 59.9 to 67.6 in PFF’s defensive grade.
The defensive ends and cornerbacks are better, so the Hokies will probably attack the middle of the Jackets’ defense early, and only expand to the perimeter when Georgia Tech has:
Proven it can stop runs/throws in the middle of the field
Adjusted the positioning of their defensive players enough to give the Hokies numerical advantages on the outside.
Georgia Tech stuffs opposing runs at a 29% clip, which is very high for this point in the season. And yet the Jackets are mediocre (51st percentile) overall on defense.
What gives?
As Chris Coleman shows over at TechSideline, Georgia Tech really struggles against the pass, does not force many turnovers, and, misses a bunch of tackles.
Overall, the Virginia Tech offense looks like it should have the upper hand.
When the Hokies are on defense
Virginia Tech’s defense has been good, but not great in 2024.
Based on the matchups, Virginia Tech is more likely to generate pressure right up the gut than they are off-the-edge.
That is not to say that Antwaun Powell-Ryland will not get a sack. He very well could, but I think the likelihood is higher that pressure up the middle would force the quarterback (likely Zach Pyron, but possibly Haynes King) out of the pocket and possibly right into APR’s waiting arms.
Expect the Hokies to spy on whoever plays quarterback. Both guys are mobile. Responsibility for that will probably alternate between Keller and Woodson.
Georgia Tech has a couple of good wide receivers. I would not expect either to come out and dominate the Hokies, but a well-schemed play could enable one or both to get behind Virginia Tech’s safeties for a big gain.
Position Groups
The Hokies have an advantage among the expected starters in four out of the six position groups, including two out of three on each side of the ball.
Virginia Tech’s significant advantage in the offensive backfield should make up for Georgia Tech’s advantage at wide receiver and tight end.
According to PFF, the offensive lines are nearly equal. However, the Hokies have been trending up on the o-line in recent games.
That unit is also the healthiest it has been in some time. With Layth Ghannam poised to return soon, the Hokies could conceivably see eight guys play meaningful snaps.
On defense, Virginia Tech is the stronger team in the front seven, and by a comfortable, if not massive, margin. And that is with Jaden Keller stepping in for Sam Brumfield at middle linebacker.
Brent Pry gave his usual the-starter-is-injured tell this week when he talked up Keller, saying “JK” has been the more consistent player of late. Of course, that’s usually the case when one player is playing hurt and the other is not.
At least the drop-off is not too big (about five points in the PFF defensive grade, and more like eight if you discount Brumfield’s performance last week).
The Virginia Tech secondary could really use a bounce back game this week. The grades were pretty rough against Boston College for all the starters not named Dorian Strong.
Keep an eye on Mose Phillips. He graded out at 29.8 last week, which is so (unexpectedly) low that it is difficult to imagine Phillips earning such a grade without an injury.
Confirmation of an injury will probably come early, via either Mansoor Delane or Quentin Reddish starting at safety opposite Jaylen Jones, or more glaringly poor play from Phillips.
How this could all go south
Virginia Tech is favored by 10, and the Hokies are expected to win 30-18. If the game is going to be closer, it will likely be for the following reasons:
There are a host of tackles or busted coverages by the Virginia Tech safeties
The Hokies struggle to get off the field on third down - Georgia Tech is successful on 48% of their offensive plays (meaning the Jackets stay ahead of the sticks)
A slow start forces the Hokies to throw the ball more than they would prefer
Considering the game is at home and the Hokies have been playing really well of late, keeping the margin within one score would probably require two of the above three to be evident, while all three would be necessary for the Yellow Jackets to pull the upset.