This weekend the Hokies will play a real-ish opponent. No, not a P4 team (that has to wait until next week), but rather a team in Old Dominion that the Hokies should beat every day and twice on Sunday. In reality, Tech has beaten only four times in the last seven games.
However, before we look forward to two teams seemingly moving in opposite directions, let’s look backward and tease out what can be learned from last week’s scrimmage, -er game, against VMI.
Looking back
Let’s start with the five metrics that before the game I noted would tell us a lot about the 2026 Hokies:
1) Offensive time-to-throw
Overall, Ethan Grunkemeyer’s time-to-throw was 2.32 seconds, while Bryce Baker’s was 1.93. Those numbers were solely a product of scheme and play selection. VMI generated nothing in the way of push up front. The ball won’t always come out this quickly, but it is clearly going to come out a lot quicker than it did last year. As a result, the number of drive-killing sacks should decline appreciably.
2) Count of (non-injury influenced) offensive line snaps by non-starters when Ethan Grunkemeyer is under center
While I am not aware of official stats for this metric, I did note via the television broadcast some degree of rotation along the offensive line in the first half. Overall, the starters played between 38 and 43 snaps. Logan Howland and Brody Meadows only played 17 and 16 snaps, respectively, but other second and third stringers got extended playing time:
Tommy Ricard - 39 snaps
Gavin Crawford and Buddy Wegdam - 24 snaps
Lucas Austin - 21 snaps
This group played well, for the most part. Lucas Austin was the only one of the four to grade out below the baseline of 60. The other three were all above 70.
3) Offensive downfield shots taken (and converted)
True to expectations, the Hokies threw a lot of short passes. Grunkemeyer had two passing attempts greater than 20 yards, but missed an open Que’sean Brown both times. Baker connected on his only attempt, a 40-yard touchdown pass to Keylen Adams.
4) Offensive line yards allowed by the defense
Before the game I set the cut-off line at 1.5 offensive line yards allowed. As expected (honestly, hoped), the Hokies shut down the Keydets rushing attack by dominating at the line of scrimmage. Virginia Tech allowed only 0.6 line yards per rush. Here is a full breakdown of the rushing advanced stats for both teams:
Not much to quibble with there.
5) Count of (non-injury influenced) back-up linebacker snaps in the first half
No Virginia Tech defender played more than 27 snaps, and Brent Pry began rotating players almost immediately. That included the linebackers. There was, however, a sharp drop-off in performance after the top four players:
MLB 1: Noah Chambers - 88.0 (19 snaps)
WLB 1: Keon Wylie - 78.1 (15 snaps)
SLB 1: Kaleb Spencer - 81.3 (22 snaps)
Mike 2: George Ballance - 89.5 (23 snaps)
WLB 2: Curtis Jones Jr. - 56.2 (27 snaps)
SLB 2: Sherrod Covil - 62.3 (26 snaps)
MLB 3: Mathieu Lamah - 84.6 (14 snaps)
WLB 3: Terry Wiggins - 57.6 (14 snaps)
SLB 3: Antwone Santiago - 70.5 (13 snaps)
Notice how two of the biggest question marks — Curtis Jones Jr. and Sherrod Covil — got the most snaps. That was not by accident. The staff clearly wanted to get a good evaluation on them. Unfortunately, the results were pretty pedestrian. Those guys will still see the field plenty this season, but hopefully they log only true second string snaps. Tech would be in trouble if either player were forced into a starting role (e.g., due to an injury at the top of the depth chart).
Looking ahead
The Hokies were a little better last week in just about every proxy measure than anticipated before the game. They dominated both lines of scrimmage, played a ton of guys, and the passing game was crisp, regardless of who was under center (or in the shotgun).
The depth questions at linebacker are real, and unresolved. When the game is on the line, expect to see primarily a four-man rotation, with George Ballance being the only second stringer who has thus far earned significant snaps.
On the offensive line, keep an eye on the battle at guard. Layth Ghannam blocked well (81.5 pass blocking, 71.3 run blocking), but committed two penalties, which resulted in him grading out the lowest among the five starters (67.9 overall).
This week, if Ghannam commits an early penalty or two, look for Gavin Crawford to get more snaps. Against VMI, Crawford played 24 snaps and earned an 81.5 overall grade. He was equally strong in blocking for the run and the pass.
If Brody Meadows can stay healthy, the Hokies might be a legit two deep at guard. Tommy Ricard’s solid performance (73.8 overall) suggests the same might be true at center.
The Hokies are not as deep at tackle, but starters Aidan Lynch (93.2) and Justin Terry (78.4) graded out very well in terms of their overall play.
Talent in, talent out
We’re still about two weeks from having enough data to draw some serious conclusions about the 2026 Hokies and their opponents. Absent sufficiently powered PFF grades, there are a few other metrics that provide clues about how the game against Old Dominion is likely to play out on Saturday afternoon.
Since the series with ODU began in 2017, the Hokies have been trending down, while the Monarchs have been trending up. This SP+ graph tells the story:
Has Virginia Tech already bottomed out? Did ODU peak last year? Possibly yes and yes.
Old Dominion got hit hard by the transfer portal. Out of the 10 highest rated players in the transfer portal linked to ODU this past offseason, 8 left the program and 2 entered.
Meanwhile, the situation in Blacksburg was the polar opposite. All 10 of the highest rated transfer portal players linked to Virginia Tech transferred in. The highest rated departure, linebacker Michael Short, left the program four games into the 2025 campaign and transferred to TCU in the offseason. He earned a 0.86 rating from 247Sports.
Traditional recruiting rankings tell a parallel story. The Hokies brought in the 34th best class in 2026 according to 247Sports, while ODU’s class ranked 95th.
Even that ranking hides the extent of the disparity between the schools’ recruiting hauls. Virginia Tech’s average player rating was 87.91 (high 3-star), while ODU’s was 82.97 (high 2-slow to 3-star territory).
Overall, the Hokies are much better this year than they were in 2025, while Old Dominion is much worse. Does it all add up to the three touchdown swing from a year ago that the Hokies will need to achieve to win the game?
Most likely, yes.
And comfortably.
Great article Jack!