Usually, when it’s week 2 and one team has played a highly ranked power conference opponent, while the other has played one of the worst teams in the FCS, there are almost no quantifiable data to illuminate a matchup between the two.
That is not the case this week.
The data on week 1 performances by the linemen on both sides of the ball is so stark, that I believe it will determine the outcome of Saturday’s game.
Vanderbilt’s offensive line
Vanderbilt is bad up front.
Of course, they were bad up front last year too, and that did not stop them from beating the Hokies.
In 2024, only one of Vandy’s starting linemen had an overall grade above 60. That was center Delfin Castillo. Tackle Chase Mitchell finished the year under 50.
Fast forward a year, and after one game against a terrible FCS team, I expected to find a bunch of gaudy PFF ratings for Vanderbilt.
And I did, in almost every category.
Every category, that is, except for blocking.
Mitchell looked much better in week 1 this year against Charleston Southern, grading out at 67.7. Only Jordan White, at center, graded out higher (72.2). But these above average grades came in a game against an FCS team that is so bad it would probably be only middling in Division II!
Of particular note was guard Cade McConnell, who graded out at 34.5 on 37 snaps, including a Bluto Blutarsky-esque 0.0 pass blocking grade on 23 pass blocking snaps!.
One has to imagine that former Hokie Gunner Givens, a backup guard who graded out at 62.3 (82.0 in pass blocking) on 36 snaps, will get a long look in practice this week.
He would certainly be motivated, both to play against his old team as well as close to home - he graduated from Lord Botetourt High School in Daleville, VA.
Either way, the Hokies have a massive advantage in the middle of the line when Vanderbilt has the ball.
Vanderbilt’s defensive line
If “bad” is the key word for the Commodore offensive line, then “unimpressive” would be the best word for the defensive line.
Vandy does have one legit player who could cause the Hokies trouble.
Miles Capers, a 6’4” 249 lb. edge player, has improved every year he has been in college:
Freshman (2021) - 46.1 grade on 55 snaps
Redshirt (2022) - DNP
(R) Sophomore - 60.3 grade on 245 snaps
(R) Junior - 71.2 grade on 517 snaps
Neither Johnny Garrett nor Tomas Rimac, Tech’s two starting tackles last week, showed much in the way of lateral quickness. In fact, I’m not convinced Rimac playing tackle was not a one-off thing driven by the individual matchups against South Carolina’s defensive line.
Whether Rimac starts at right tackle or the Hokies go with Montavious Cunningham, that position is the one area I would expect to see Vanderbilt attempt to exploit.
The rest of the Vanderbilt defensive line played alright last week, with PFF grades generally between 60 and 67, but those are not the types of grades one would expect to see from an SEC school playing against such an inferior opponent.
Tech’s defensive linemen notched grades in that range or above against a South Carolina team ranked in the top 15 nationally at a neutral site last week.
So, the matchup for Virginia Tech’s offensive line is more favorable this week. And that is important because the Hokies are very thin up front. The starters all seem ok, but this line goes about seven-deep right now, and players six (Brody Meadows) and seven (Jaden Muskrat) missed last week’s game with injuries.
Matt Moore would like to get through this game without having to play anyone farther down the bench in competitive snaps. If something does happen, though, and the Hokies are forced to play one of their young backup lineman, things could go south in a hurry.
Final Thoughts
The Hokies are 1.5-point home favorites. Home field advantage is generally worth 3 points, and one could argue Lane Stadium at night could be worth 3.5 or even 4.
That means the betting world believes Vanderbilt would squeak past the Hokies on a neutral field.
Combine that insult, accurate as it may be, with Vanderbilt’s upset win last year, and the Commodores should get the Hokies’ best shot.
I’m not sure many Vanderbilt players know what it feels like to get the best shot, on the road, from another P4 team.
It’s one thing to go play at LSU, where none of the 100+ thousand spectators in Baton Rouge believe you’ll be able to keep the game close, much less win it.
It’s completely different to go to an equally loud stadium where the fans believe they could be the difference between victory and defeat.
Will Vandy’s line get rattled and commit false start penalties? Will quarterback Diego Pavia face enough constant pressure to feel like he needs to press in order to move the ball?
My guess is the answer to both questions will be yes. That doesn’t mean the Hokies will win the game, but it certainly improves the odds.
Given the otherwise equal matchup, it could prove decisive.