Tornado Alley (Properly) Realigned, Part 3

Something to make you think while we all count down to this evening's Final Four tipoff

Another week, another coach making the case for me. Here is San Diego State University men’s basketball head coach Brian Dutcher:

"Realignment is here," Dutcher said. "So everybody is just waiting for the next shoe to drop. Whether that's the Big Ten or the Pac-12 or the Big 12 or ACC. There's going to be more realignment."

"Even though [our flight] was a charter, I thought, my goodness, those guys have to do this every other week to play a basketball game? It would be exhausting," he said. "It's going to be a real challenge to be at their best with that kind of travel. I'm wishing them all the best, but that's more travel than I would ever wish on anybody."

As Dutcher added, "I just feel like you should play regionally. It's better on the kids. It's easier to be a student-athlete instead of just an athlete."

Now, assuming you have read Part 1 and Part 2, it’s on with the show!

Big 10

Once upon a time, the Big 10 really only had ten teams. Then Penn St. (previously an independent) joined the league, making it 11 teams strong. The league stayed like that for a while, but then went out of its footprint to add Nebraska, than Maryland and Rutgers. Soon it will comprise 16 schools, including the two L.A. schools. That’s just madness! Here is what the conference should look like:

Four Ohio schools, two from Indiana, and three from the southern part of Michigan. Away games would be doable by car for everyone. No one would have a weather advantage. Michigan and Ohio St. are the major names in this conference, but if the top seems a little thin, the ceiling is still fairly high.

Five schools have a winning percentage of at least 60% since 1998, and only two have a winning percentage lower than 50%. Essentially, since the beginning of time, Ohio St. has had its pick of in-state recruits. None of the other schools were a high end, viable option for blue chip players. Cincinnati, NIL, and the transfer portal are changing that. Parity, in some senses, has already arrived, but I think we still have a long way to go. Wait until collectives have established a reputation. Wait until certain schools establish themselves as a destination for guys in the portal. That information will permeate down to the high school level, which could be a game changer.

Michigan would have been expected to win the conference in 2022, but Ohio and Cincinnati were good enough to steal a win from the Wolverines or Buckeyes in one of their combined four matchups. My, how that would have shaken up the college football world, not to mention the conference standings!

Heartland

Yeah, yeah, I know. I’m likely to receive mail from George Strait fans this week complaining about the choice of name for this conference. Heartland in Illinois? Blasphemous! But what could be more Heartland than Iowa? Besides, I had to call it something.

One of the things I like about this conference is that every team should be plenty comfortable playing in cold weather. Weather advantages should only come in the playoffs, where they would be a reward for having a better season than the opponent. Maybe Alabama would go up to Madison and romp in a first round playoff game. But they might just freeze.

Wisconsin and Iowa are well positioned to be the two best teams in the conference, year in, year out. The softness at the bottom of the 25-year standings seems to have been addressed via Matt Campbell at Iowa St. and Bret Bielema at Illinois. I never would have guessed that Northwestern would be almost a .500 team over the last 25 years, as they certainly run hot and cold, and seemingly more often cold than hot.

Minnesota likely would have won the conference last year and been one of the weaker win-and-you’re-in teams to make the playoff. Maybe that would be the case most years, but with Wisconsin nabbing Luke Fickell in the offseason, I highly doubt it.

Appalachian

I will admit, I chewed on this one for a while. Memphis is the furthest west, and it is barely in the state of Tennessee. Perhaps it would be a better fit in a conference with the Mississippi and Louisiana schools? Ultimately I kept the Tigers in this conference because I placed high value on keeping schools within a given state all in the same conference. I like the idea of state bragging rights. Besides, it’s not like they are outside the conference footprint.

The Appalachian is a solid conference that should produce a champion that is competitive in the playoff each year. Nick Saban is 71 years old, and my gut tells me he’ll hang up the whistle within the next five years. Will Alabama be as dominant with a different coach? Probably not. They spent almost a decade in the wilderness after Bear Bryant retired. There are enough strong teams in this conference to challenge the Crimson Tide when they return to earth.

In fact, last year Tennessee probably would have been the conference champion. That said, Troy was good again in 2022, and they have quietly been good for some time now. That is a team that would stand to benefit from conference realignment and getting their fair shot at the blue bloods each year.

One unknown variable in all this is what happens to stepping stone programs? For example, Justin Fuente was on a nice little run at Memphis prior to coming to Virginia Tech. In the Appalachian conference, he would have a realistic chance to make the playoff every year. Now, maybe he still takes the Tech job because Alabama is not in the Capital Region and the Hokies have a higher recruiting ceiling, but maybe donors at Memphis step up to cut that gap enough to keep him. It’s an interesting thought experiment.

Bayou

Now, if this isn’t the greatest big brother, little brother conference…For every big brother, there are, on average, two little brothers. Imagine that! On an equal playing field, every other year in their home stadiums, Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, and Tulane would get a shot at LSU. How many years do the Tigers get through those games unblemished. My money is on less than you think. Sure, a conference title and playoff birth will be on the line, but it’s hard to get “up” for every game.

The potential for upsets is crucial because clearly, on paper, LSU is the best team in this conference. I do think the rising tide would lift all the other boats, but LSU would still win this conference more than they would lose it. But that is probably about how things should go. LSU is a powerhouse program that has won three National Championships since 1998, and they played for a fourth.

Plaudits aside for resurgent-under-Brian-Kelly LSU, Tulane was the best team in the conference in 2022, and would have earned the playoff bid. It is hard to predict what Mississippi State will look like without Mike Leach, but that has become a pretty solid program over the last decade. If Lane stays in Oxford a while (yeah, I know, big - no, make that enormous - if) Ole Miss could challenge for the title each year.

In general, though, this conference would likely be decided by which contender slipped up against the teams that will perpetually hang around .500. You know, the little brothers. They may not win the conference often, but they would probably play a pivotal role in deciding the champion each year.

On Deck

Next, we’ll move out west, first to the plains states, then to the coast to sort out how realignment should look in the country’s wide open spaces.