Too Close for Comfort for VT in Norfolk?

The spread is now under a touchdown - perhaps the folks in Vegas are looking at the same numbers I am

My game preview viz pretty much says it all. Virginia Tech’s 2022 opener at Old Dominion has the potential to be much closer than many Hokies would like to believe.

The numbers confirm that Virginia Tech enters the game as an average P5 team, while ODU enters as an average G5 team. Let’s examine just how great (or not) the difference is between the two.

Potential vs. Performance

Virginia Tech’s last five recruiting classes, not surprisingly, far exceed Old Dominion’s by all measures. Tech’s average recruit is rated and ranked higher, and has more stars. Better recruits should translate into better performance on the field, but that has not necessarily been the case. It is a bit jarring to compare the anticipated starting lineups by position group for the two teams. ODU had better PFF grades (total offense or defense) everywhere except in the trenches. Even Grant Wells, Tech’s new transfer QB, is giving away 3+ points to ODU’s Hayden Wolff.

This discrepancy tells me one of two things. Either there is a huge drop-off between the ODU starters and the second stringers, or Tech’s players have not been well developed. The hypothesis among many Hokie fans is the latter, and I hope to investigate the topic more thoroughly in an upcoming article.

One thing I will be looking for tonight is improvement from three veterans in key spots - Jalen Holston (RB), Dax Hollifield (LB), and Chamarri Connor (S). If we enter October and those three guys have significantly improved PFF grades, I will feel very good about the direction of the program.

Experience

Old Dominion returns almost all of their production from a year ago, while Virginia Tech brings back very little. These Monarchs have played a lot of football together, and I expect that to show on Friday night. With a big opening game in their home stadium, it would be easy to get too amped up, resulting in blown assignments and stupid penalties. I would be surprised if either of those things happen. ODU has been building toward this season, and this game in particular, for a long time. Tech will get their best shot.

There is, however, a flip side to experience. ODU starters, particularly on the offensive line, played a lot of snaps in 2021.

High snap counts along the offensive line typically indicate two truisms: the starters avoided injury and the backups weren’t any good. The Hokies are not deep along the offensive line, but man-for-man, Tech’s starters have the advantage. In order for VT to win, the difference in 2021 average individual PFF blocking grades needs to hold true (or even expand) in Norfolk.

Quarterback Play

When I started this analysis, I really expected to see an advantage at QB for Virginia Tech. That is not the case. In almost every measure, Wells and Wolff performed at similar levels in 2021.

That’s about as equal as two quarterbacks can get. I think the difference in their stats on Friday night will result from circumstances beyond their control:

• Time to throw - VT has the advantage along both lines, and Tech coaches have indicated they want to take some deep shots to stretch the ODU defense

• Receiver separation - the QB that has to fit the ball into tighter throwing windows is likely to commit more turnovers

By PFF overall offensive grades, Wolff will be throwing to higher performing players than Wells. However, upon drilldown, the numbers suggest that Tech’s receivers and tight ends outperform ODU’s by significant margins on a few key metrics.

In 2021, VT pass catchers ran shorter routes, but caught the ball more often, dropped the ball less often, and as a result, the VT quarterbacks throwing them the ball produced a higher Targeted QB Rating than did their counterparts from Norfolk. Only in route running does ODU hold an advantage.

Gut Feelings

From my analysis, I think the oddsmakers, who expect a 27-20 VT win, are in the right ballpark. Much as I would love to see a comfortable Tech win, all the quantitative evidence points to a four-quarter game. If it were me, I’d take ODU to cover and bet the over. Think 27-23, with Virginia Tech holding on late.

Still, there is so much that we do not know and therefore cannot quantify:

• How big a culture change has the VT program undergone?

• How will the familiarity between the two coaching staffs impact their respective game plans?

• How much difference can the new VT strength and conditioning program make in one offseason?

We’re about to find out. Buckle up. It should be interesting. Hopefully fun too!