To Press or Not To Press (The Panic Button)
That is the question...and here is the answer
Note: Data is sourced from CFDB and ESPN, except where noted. All PFF grades are preliminary, and current as of 5:00 a.m. Monday morning (September 19). These grades can, and likely will, shift a bit, but the broader takeaways should hold true.
Saturday’s result was underwhelming, just as the numbers suggested it would be. This article will be all about learning what we can learn before West Virginia rolls into town on Thursday. Let’s lead off with the aforementioned panic button.
Mixed Signals in Pass Blocking, Clarity in Run Blocking
In my preview analysis, I wrote the following:
…if the offensive line is going to pull it together at all this season, it will be against Wofford. If Grant Wells does not have an average time to throw over three seconds in this game, it will be time to push the panic button.
Wells was pressured on 5 out of 37 dropbacks (14%), down from 34% against ODU and 23% against BC. So, that is some improvement, albeit against a lesser opponent. The problem is, the average time to throw was just 2.74 seconds, which is the lowest in a VT game this season. What should we make of that?
Well, given the lack of pressures, one way to interpret it is that Wells was finding open receivers and getting the ball out quicker. That was certainly the case on many plays. Another contributing factor is the persistent injury to Kaleb Smith. Outside of the deep target to Smith early in the game, I remember only one other, and it was a deep throw to Christian Moss that fell incomplete. @french60wasp, who analyzes film for The Key Play, noted the following during the game:
I agree - the numbers are not telling the full story, but the film review will, so be sure to check French’s or Brandon Patterson’s over at Techsideline. Those usually appear early to mid-week.
While Wells played solid if not perfect football, the line continued to struggle. Silas Dzansi and Kaden Moore dealt with injuries. Moore’s was brief, he only missed four plays, but Dzansi’s ended his day. Pry said after the game that he could have continued if needed.
I’m not sure if the reading public has noticed, but Pry is wily when it comes to describing injuries. Last week he talked about Keyshawn King looking great in practice, giving the impression he would start. He didn’t play a down. So, I have learned not to read much into Pry’s injury descriptions. I’m sure Dzansi will suit up against WVU if he can. His replacement on Saturday, Bob Schick, played solid, if unspectacular football, earning an overall offensive grade of 67.7.
The other three starters, Jesse Hanson, Johnny Jordan, and Parker Clements all played the entire game. That means at least one of two things is true: they continue to struggle picking up Rudolph’s run blocking scheme, and he is going to play them until they get it, or the backups are not to be trusted. I lean more toward the former, but suspect there is a not insignificant element of the latter at play, as well. Notably, Bob Schick was the replacement initially for Moore at RG, then later for Dzansi at LT. Rudolph clearly does not trust Xavier Chaplin yet, and it appears the Hokies really only go six-deep up front. Parker Clements struggled again (54.7 overall offensive grade), but there appears to be no heat on him for playing time. Perhaps after Rudolph reviewed the Wofford film there will be. With his play on Saturday, Bob Schick probably earned some snaps at RT against WVU, assuming Dzansi is good to go at LT.
In sum, I am not hitting the panic button, but at this point, I am not expecting significant improvement in 2022 either. And if Clements continues to struggle, I could even see him opting for the Transfer Portal in search of a blocking scheme that better matches his strengths, one more along the lines of what Vance Vice ran.
Playing to Potential
There was a lot of talk leading up to the game about Wofford being one of the worst teams to come to Lane Stadium since the 1990s. While that was true on the recruiting front, I noted in the lead up to the game that, despite the long losing streak, the team appears to get everything out of its potential:
Wofford’s 66.0 overall PFF grade in 2022 puts the Terriers 168th out of a combined 262 FBS and FCS schools. In comparison, 2-0 Indiana, a Big Ten school, has a 65.7 grade and #171 ranking. Old Dominion, who beat Tech in week 1, is currently grading out at 66.2, and Boston College, who VT dismantled last week, has a 63.9 grade and #178 ranking. Is Wofford a better team than Boston College? No, but they are playing better football relative to their physical ability, even in losses of 31 and 26 points, and despite failing to score.
To put it more simply, Wofford is a team with F- recruits playing D level football. By comparison, Virginia Tech (76.0 overall team grade) is a team comprised of C+/B- level recruits playing C level football.
Wofford graded out at 66.4, a pretty impressive showing given the road environment and level of competition. They were particularly good defensively, where they graded out at 70.4. And their grades match what I was seeing during the game:
On the tackling front, Wofford’s 83.1 grade was higher than Virginia Tech’s 75.5. The Terriers also nearly matched the Hokies in rush defense, 79.6 vs. 81.9. By the end of the 4th quarter, I found myself very happy that Tech scheduled this game. Wofford was no threat to beat VT, and the Hokies were able to cycle in a lot of players. However, Wofford played hard for four quarters, didn’t quit, and offered real resistance on defense, which meant that the Hokies got quality snaps. That’s about as much as one can ask for from a buy game.
Turning to Virginia Tech, the team finally played up to its ability, grading out at 83.8 overall. The 66.0 offensive grade is as much as we can expect with injuries to the top two running backs and the top receiver. The defense continues to shine, grading out at 90.0, despite heavy rotations of second and third-string players, which began in the first half.
Short Week
Both Virginia Tech and West Virginia played FCS teams on Saturday. Thursday’s game is in Blacksburg, though, so advantage Hokies, at least on the travel front. West Virginia played at Pitt in week 1, a game with significant hype and excitement. Can they get up again to that level to play VT? The last time WVU played Tech in Blacksburg was 2004. That day the Hokies upset the #6 Mountaineers 19-13. No one on West Virginia’s roster has any idea what this rivalry is like when played under the lights at Lane Stadium. So, that is just one more factor that we will consider when analyzing Thursday’s game.
Amazing!