They are All Must Win Games Now
Hokies welcome revived (and beat up) Boston College to Lane Stadium
On paper, Thursday night’s game features a matchup between two equally matched teams.
The SP+ numbers are similar, the advanced metrics are almost identical, team talent likewise, and yet the Hokies are favored by a touchdown and expected to win by 9 points.
What gives?
Who’s hurt, and who’s injured?
Guys play through pain all the time, and thanks to Pro Football Focus (PFF), it’s usually pretty easy to figure out when that is the case.
Snaps and PFF grade suddenly decline? The guy is likely nursing some kind of nagging injury.
A guy just up and disappears? He’s injured. Don’t wait on the disclosure - coach ain’t gonna talk about it.
Fans should know pretty early on just how much the off week helped Boston College.
If some of the guys who were playing hurt are closer to 100%, the Hokies could be in for a four-quarter slugfest.
Vegas is betting those issues have not resolved. That is the only way to justify a seven-point spread.
If BC was close to full health, the spread would be under three. Play the game in Chestnut Hill against a healthy Eagles team and it’d probably be a push.
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos is the main injury question on offense.
He started off the year hot, then cooled down in games three and four.
After missing the Western Kentucky game to an injury, he returned last week and struggled against Virginia.
His stock is clearly trending downward, and without him the offense struggles to put up points.
When Boston College has the ball
The Eagles have much better offensive starters than their point totals this season would lead many to believe. There are, however, some notable areas to attack.
BC is weakest at the guard position. Expect Aeneas Peebles and Kelvin Gilliam to be disruptive.
Chris Marve may also blitz a little more often than is typical for Tech in order to test the BC offensive line and Castellanos’s mobility.
Mobility is the real question. Castellanos was sacked just three times in the first three games. In the last two that he has played in (vs. Michigan St. and at UVA; he missed the Western Kentucky game due to injury) he was sacked four times in each game.
It’s not like the line isn’t giving him time, either. He has averaged 3.37 seconds to throw on the season, and there was no discernable difference in the last two games.
What has changed is the rate at which pressures are turning into sacks. It was 20% or less in each of the first three games. In the last two games, the rate has jumped to 50% against MSU and 44% against UVA.
Forget designed runs. Castellanos is really struggling to just avoid the rush.
Also, a high time to throw number combined with a lot of sacks allowed suggests the receivers are struggling to get open. That lends even more credence to the idea that Tech will bring extra pressure.
Another call-out: Castellanos’s fumble grade has been under 40 in each of the last two games. If the Hokies can get pressure, expect them to take some swipes at the football.
A normally dangerous, albeit short (5’9”) dual threat quarterback who may or may not be healthy is the perfect formula for zone blitzes. Caleb Woodson has proven pretty adept when asked to rush up the middle - expect to see more of that in Lane Stadium on Thursday night.
APR is due for a sack or two, but if he’s going to get to Castellanos it’s likely to be on a stunt - both of BC’s tackles are good.
In fact, that’s really the story with the BC offense. As usual, when the Eagles are good it is because they overcome mediocre athleticism with competence at all positions and size, strength, and experience in the trenches.
When Virginia Tech has the ball
Boston College is capable at every position in the back-seven, but the defensive line is hit-or-miss.
With all the disruptive plays coming from just two players, look for Tech to double-team Horsley on most plays and to chip or option Ezeiruaku out on the edge.
If BC can scheme a 1-on-1 matchup between Horsley and Bob Schick on a run up the middle, expect the play to result in a stuff (at best).
Keep an eye on how well freshman Ashton McShane holds up at cornerback for BC. The starter, Amari Jackson, was recently lost to a torn ACL.
Despite the solid PFF grade, expect Tech to throw at McShane early and often. Maybe this is the week Collin Schlee actually throws the ball off of one of the misdirection/trick plays that Tech has in his package.
Position Groups
Offense
Virginia Tech’s big advantage, when comparing the two offenses, is in the backfield.
The Hokie offensive line has held up well this season, but it is still a notch below Boston College’s big, veteran group.
The Virginia Tech wide receivers have underwhelmed through six games. Da’Quan Felton seems to be on an upswing of late, though.
In addition, Ali Jennings, coming off an injury, saw a lot more action against Stanford than many expected.
If he is close to 100%, Tech’s offense could potentially reach another gear. And against a very solid BC defense, it may need that extra gear.
Defense
When evaluating players likely to start on Thursday night, Boston College is stronger than Virginia Tech at all three levels on defense.
The biggest difference is in the secondary, where Tech’s corners, especially Dorian Strong, have been on the receiving end of some pretty tough grading this year.
So, despite questions about the BC offense, there is every reason to believe that the Eagle defense can keep the team in the game. No opponent has scored 30 points against BC this season, and Tech is not expected to do so, either.
Final thoughts
In terms of personnel, Boston College looks a lot like a Stanford. The one difference is experience. BC will play a lot of upperclassmen, especially on both lines.
In order to win the game, Tech needs to do a good job of identifying its matchup advantages and exploiting them. I expect to see a lot of check-with-me looks to the sideline pre-snap when the Hokies have the ball. Even more than normal.
The Hokies have an opportunity to wear down the BC defense if they can run the ball successfully on early downs. We’re not talking game-breaking stuff here. A consistent three-to-four yards will suffice.
In that regard, the game plan likely will be similar to what we saw against Stanford.
With the home crowd and a Thursday night national audience, look for more deep shots (especially targeting McShane) and a trick play or two from the Hokie offense.
If they can connect on a couple big plays, the Hokies have every opportunity to approach 30 points and to win the game comfortably.
If not, and if Castellanos recovered sufficiently during the off week, then this game could come down to the final possession.