The Word of the Week is 'Talent'
The Word of the Week is 'Talent'
No excuses for Hokies as heavy underdog Marshall comes to town
Since 2000, the Marshall Thundering Herd have been in a higher SP+ percentile than the Virginia Tech Hokies in just three seasons:
2014 (Marshall 82nd percentile, VT 66th)
2021 (Marshall 62nd, VT 47th)
2022 (Marshall 55th, VT 27th)
Despite winning the head-to-head matchup in Huntington last year, Marshall finished well behind the Hokies in SP+ percentile (27th vs. 66th).
Still, the Thundering Herd have been mediocre at best the last three years, and (arguably, if we consider SP+ and head-to-head results) better than the Hokies in all three of them.
And it’s not like the Herd had more team talent. According to 247Sports, the 2021 Hokies were ranked 50 spots higher than Marshall.
Tech’s 2022 talent dipped 13 places in the ranking, but the Hokies still held a 44-spot advantage.
Last year the advantage was 36, and the Hokies lost by a touchdown.
The Virginia Tech advantage declined further in 2024, down to 29. So, while the oddsmakers are picking the Hokies to win by about three touchdowns, recent history says don’t put it past Marshall to win by a similar margin.
What little we know
Marshall is coming off a 45-3 win over Stony Brook. Undoubtedly, the Herd faced stiffer opposition from their scout team this week.
If PFF had something to say about Marshall’s walk-through last weekend, I did not bother to look. PFF grades matter for each game, but they don’t hold much predictive value until around the fourth game of the season.
What we are left with is a situation not dissimilar from last week. The Hokies hold a decided SP+ advantage in all three phases of the game, and they are even more overwhelming favorites than they were at Vanderbilt last week.
Additionally, like last week, the opponent has implemented a new offensive scheme, and there is not much out there on film for the Hokies to game plan around.
The element of surprise alone is probably worth 7-10 points.
In fact, there is really only one big difference between this week’s game and last week’s - the Hokies are playing at home.
And a mid-afternoon, rowdy Lane Stadium crowd in combination with a team out for revenge (for last week and last year) should be more than enough to tip the final scale toward the heavily favored Hokies.
Reason to pump the brakes
Every single metric on this week’s game card points decisively toward Virginia Tech.
Recent history aside, there is really only one hidden element that should concern Tech fans: Marshall gets a lot out of its players.
Over the last five years, the Hokies have had much more talented teams than Marshall. The Hokies also play in a power conference, resulting in more regional and national exposure.
Despite all this, Virginia Tech has placed only four more players in the NFL than Marshall.
That stat speaks well of the football culture at Marshall. Regardless of who the head coach is, the program continues to churn out pro-level talent at a clip well above its ability to recruit.
If Marshall is to keep the game close or win at Lane Stadium, it will be thanks in part to a few guys who will be playing on Sunday who far outperform their original high school recruiting ranking.
Post-Labor Day recruiting check-in
Since July 4th, the Hokies have added three commits and lost one. The overall class rating has declined from 43rd nationally to 48th, but that is less about the changes in composition and more about reordering as evaluations get updated.
Ins and outs
All three new commits are notable:
Micah Matthews, ATH, Composite #104 nationally, 0.9144 rating
Shemarius Peterkin, WR, #208, 0.9001
Luke Stuewe, ATH, #1685, 0.8314
Before you scoff at Stuewe, keep in mind that his dad was a wide receiver at Tech in the mid-1990s.
Michael Stuewe walked-on and eventually earned a scholarship, carving out a roll as a possession receiver for a team that played in two Alliance Bowls (the New Years Six of the 1990s).
Randy King of The Roanoke Times wrote an article on Michael Stuewe back in 1996 that is worth a read. In it, he notes that Michael’s father Dennis, Luke’s grandfather, was a running back at Nebraska from 1962-64.
That makes Luke not only a second-generation Hokie, but a third-generation power conference player. Guys like that don’t come around too often.
So, throw out the rating on Luke. Whether it’s at safety or wide receiver, he’s as close to a sure thing as there is in this class.
However, as good as the additions are, the Hokies did suffer a noteworthy defection this week, as Matthew Outten (ATH, #340, 0.8978) de-committed from Tech and promptly committed to Penn St.
Maybe he’s 1,000% committed this time, or maybe he’ll end up elsewhere. Either way, he was, numerically, a loss that hurts.
Updated evaluations
As more data points come in, 247 has been updating player ratings. Among players who were already committed to Tech on July 4:
5 have seen their composite player rating increase
5 have experienced no change in their rating
3 have seen their rating decrease
Sheldon Robinson, a safety, has seen his stock go way up. Two months ago, he was barely in the top 1,000 nationally. He is now a high three-star player, ranked #470 in the country.
The ratings changes are bit misleading, though. Based on the changes, we would have expected maybe a slight net increase in national players ranking for Tech’s commits. Instead, most players in the class have experienced a decrease in their national ranking.
Aside from Robinson, two other commits rose in the national ranking, two experienced no change, and eight saw their ranking decrease.
For a team whose overall talent level is still weighed down by poor pandemic era recruiting classes, the 2025 class, as presently composed, leaves a bit wanting.
But there is a whole season of football to be played. Ratings will change, more players will commit, and, perhaps, more will decommit.
The main takeaway is that there remains much work to be done before signing day.