As lopsided matchups go, this one is surprisingly close.
Don’t get me wrong, 13th ranked Georgia Tech is favored by 13.5 points for a reason.
Nominally, one would give weight to the fact that Georgia Tech is the home team and had an extra week to prepare for the Hokies.
However, at 2-4 and led by an interim coach, the 2025 Hokies are not the sort of team that motivates its opponents to dial in.
If anything, all that time off before hosting a lackluster opponent would suggest that perhaps Georgia Tech might come out lethargic.
Psychology aside, Georgia Tech is in the middle of a long run of soft games. Duke is the only half decent team that the Yellow Jackets will play between now and the finale against Georgia.
But, the question at hand is, do the not-quite-half-decent Hokies stand a chance of pulling the upset?
Surprisingly, yes.
Undefeated record and top 15 ranking aside, Georgia Tech hasn’t really played anyone. Their best win was over three loss-Clemson.
As a result, the Yellow Jackets enter the game with a 1568 ELO, which is on par with a seven-win team playing an average P4 schedule.
When Virginia Tech has the ball
The Hokies will probably struggle to move the ball against a stout Georgia Tech defense.
The Yellow Jackets are equally strong against the run and the pass, they do not give up explosive plays, and they allow a low success rate.
Combined with Virginia Tech’s below average offensive firepower, a reasonable expectation would be two to three Virginia Tech turnovers.
The key to scoring points will be field position, and there again the Yellow Jackets are the better team, by nearly two yards in average starting position.
The one advantage the Hokies offense has is average points on opportunities inside the opponents’ 40-yard line, where Virginia Tech is nearly one point better than Georgia Tech.
The Hokies are averaging 21.9 points per game on 5.2 drives that cross the opposing 40. Meanwhile Georgia Tech allows an average of 14.2 points per game on 4.6 such drives.
In football terms, the Hokies are scoring two touchdowns and kicking three field goals per game when they enter the scoring zone.
Even if they trade one of those touchdowns for a fourth field goal, it is imperative that the Hokies score every time they cross the Yellow Jacket 40.
When Georgia Tech has the ball
Georgia Tech is known for its ability to run the ball, but what gets talked about less is how the run game sets up the pass.
The Yellow Jackets enter the game with a 0.35 EPA per passing play, twice that of the Hokies.
It is hard to imagine the Hokies shutting down that passing attack, especially since the porous Hokie run defense will probably require reinforcements (e.g., an eight-man box).
The Georgia Tech offense is not explosive, but it does a great job of staying on schedule, thanks in part to a low stuff rate. The Yellow Jackets generally move in one direction - forward.
Expect Sam Siefkes to apply pressure on first down to try to get the Georgia Tech offense behind the sticks. All of Georgia Tech’s offensive advantages evaporate if the Hokies can get them into second and long consistently.
Action inside the Hokie 40-yard line will also be key. Georgia Tech is averaging 20.2 points per game on six trips inside their opponents scoring zone. Here, the Yellow Jackets are less efficient than the Hokies.
The trouble is that the Hokies defense is allowing 24.5 points per game on 5.2 trips inside its 40-yard line.
Combining these numbers with the numbers presented earlier when Virginia Tech has the ball, the expectation is that Georgia Tech will outscore the Hokies 22-17 on trips inside the forty.
Given that offensive explosiveness is nearly equal for the two offenses, but the Virginia Tech defense allows more explosive plays, the Hokies will need to either stiffen up on defense when Georgia Tech gets in the scoring zone, or do better at limiting explosive plays.
Of course, the Virginia Tech defense’s numbers are weighed down by the terrible performances against Vanderbilt and Old Dominion. The Hokies have been better since then, but those games still count.
Final thoughts
PFF grades point to a few favorable matchups for the Hokies.
Georgia Tech is a very average run blocking team (60.3), and the Virginia Tech defense actually grades out well against the run (84.2).
Additionally, the Yellow Jacket defense is not particularly strong in the areas where the Virginia Tech is weak:
VT has been horrible in pass blocking (46.7), but the GT pass rush is just alright (65.3)
GT is not a great tackling team (60.7), and for all the talk the GT run game gets, VT’s rushing offense actually has graded out better (82.3 vs. 78.9)
Virginia Tech does have a chance to pull the upset.
Pay close attention to the first two times each offense crosses the opposing 40-yard line. In order to win the game, Virginia Tech probably needs to net a five to seven point advantage in this metric.
If the Hokies can get touchdowns on both trips and limit Georgia Tech to field goals, good things could be in store.
Anything less will likely end in defeat.
Phillip Montgomery remains five victories away from becoming Virginia Tech’s full-time head coach, and there are only six games remaining in the regular season.