Seemingly every year, Maryland racks up early season wins over outclassed, non-conference opponents. The Terps score a ton of points in these games, allow a comparative handful, and individual players pad their stats.
If you hadn’t seen this story year-after-year for decades, you might look at this Maryland team and feel pretty nervous about Saturday’s game.
If, like me, you are well aware of Maryland’s exemplary record against the Little Sisters of the Poor and various local, directional schools, it is exceedingly difficult to take this week’s game seriously.
Are the Terps a legit Big Ten program, capable of not only beating the Hokies, but doing so comfortably, or are they a team whose relationship with its conference is more about guaranteeing nine “buy” games each season?
And what about the Hokies? Last week’s performance was a mixed bag against a lower-level opponent. There is also that pesky little record — read: no wins — against non-ACC power conference opponents dating back to the opening game of the 2017 season.
Getting a handle on this game is tough, as we will be asking a lot from just a few metrics.
What a major outlier tells us
Both teams enter Saturday’s game with equal 2-0 records against opponents who had no business sticking within three touchdowns of them. In such a situation, raw stats as well as PFF grades are supposed to be inflated.
In a matchup between two teams with inflated numbers, an outright bad number becomes newsworthy. The most noteworthy outlier for either team is Maryland’s inability to tackle. The Terps graded out below 65 in both games this season, and were under 60 last week at rebuilding UConn.
Taken as a whole, Maryland’s inability to bring ball carriers to the ground would seem to point the way for Ty Howle and the Hokie offense. Expect a health dose of Marcellous Hawkins on the ground to soften up a Terrapin defense that is a bit undersized at some positions.
For example, half of Maryland’s two-deep at defensive end weigh less than 250 pounds. Can they hold up over four quarters if they struggle to tackle ball carriers? If the Hokies win the time of possession battle, there is a high likelihood that it will be the result of drives getting extended by players who refuse to go down.
Predictability in the passing game
Defenses tend to struggle when they don’t know where the ball is going. Sign stealing is one answer, but few teams manage to pull it off successfully.
The defensive coordinator’s job is made much easier if there are clear tendencies from an opponents’ charted plays.
Consider the passing distribution between Maryland’s Malik Washington and Virginia Tech’s Ethan Grunkemeyer.
Washington, so far this season, has demonstrated a clear preference to throw the ball in the middle third of the field.
At every level, Washington has thrown to the center of the field more than to the left and right combined.
Expect the Hokies to be dialed-in to this tendency, especially on screen passes and throws between 0 and 20 yards. On “gotta have it plays”, expect him to try to pick on Tech’s linebackers. The Hokies have not had to defend against a competent passing attack yet this season, and at times they showed holes against Old Dominion.
For the Hokies, Ethan Grunkemeyer shows the same preference for throwing to the middle of the field on passes thrown within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Beyond 10 yards, though, he is as likely to throw to either side as he is to attempt a pass down the middle.
For Grunk, the key will be completing those deeper passes to the outside.
In addition, Hokie fans have noted the offense’s inability to hit on wide open deep shots. The Terrapin coaches have surely noted this fact too, so don’t be surprised if they crowd the line of scrimmage and dare the Hokies to beat them deep.
Final thoughts
This game is tough to get a read on. Most grades and statistics for both teams are cartoonishly high.
The Hokies showed some weaknesses up front last week against ODU, but Maryland’s defensive scheme is so different from what ODU ran that it is unclear whether the Terps will be able to take advantage of Tech’s youth and inexperience.
Meanwhile, Maryland clearly struggles with tackling on defense, and the offense appears easy to game plan against.
Malik Washington is a talented player, but one wonders if sees plays develop near the sideline as well as he does in the middle of the field. If the Hokies can crowd the center third and disguise their coverages, there is every reason to believe that they could pick off a pass or two.
Takeaways in the passing game and a dominant rushing attack are the keys to victory for Virginia Tech. In contrast, sacks on first and second down combined with the danger of a mobile opposition quarterback will be critical if Maryland hopes to make this a four-quarter contest.
Both teams are undefeated against lower-level patsies. This game is being portrayed as each team’s first true test, but if recent records are any indication, the loser is more likely than not to be revealed as a P4 patsy.
If you had to label one of these teams as being set up to take a fall, which would you choose? That answer alone is worth more than all the early season powder puff stats, combined.