Off weeks are all about introspection.
One thing that stood out during the weekend without Virginia Tech football was how impactful injuries are in this age in which it is tough to stockpile talent.
It isn’t just the Hokies who really struggle when a key player or two goes down. It is every team.
Good health is absolutely paramount to having a successful season, and the lack of good health is once again derailing Virginia Tech.
This is a concept I’m hoping to explore in the offseason, but I raise it now because reports out of Blacksburg are not encouraging.
Despite not playing this past Saturday, the team does not sound any healthier than it was a couple weeks ago.
Duke and Virginia Tech, for the season, are very similar in terms of advanced metrics, with Duke’s offense and Virginia Tech’s defense scoring better on paper than they do in the eye test.
The trouble is that Tech’s numbers were compiled partially by a healthy team and partially by an unhealthy team.
And right now, the Hokies are a very unhealthy team.
The vibes among fans are terrible, and all the NIL in the world is not going to heal player injuries any quicker. If anything, it just riles the fans up more, creating a doom loop of sorts.
The Hokies have one thing going for them - the off week allowed more time to get the younger players acclimated to playing in an actual game. That includes more reps on the kind of trick plays Tech will undoubtedly roll out Saturday night in an attempt to net some chunk yards against a very solid Duke defense.
When the Hokies have the ball
Duke is good everywhere on defense. Among the players expected to start, there is not one obvious matchup that favors Virginia Tech.
Duke’s defensive line is stout, which is not encouraging for a game that will likely be decided in the trenches.
With Collin Schlee the probable starter at quarterback for the Hokies, do not expect Virginia Tech to do much in the passing game. Duke is too good to allow many cheap completions, and Schlee has not yet demonstrated an ability to go through multiple reads and complete a pass downfield to a receiver with just a half-step advantage on his defender.
Additionally, although Schlee is supposedly healthy, it is doubtful that he’s 100%. And given the state of the offense, Tyler Bowen is going to have to run him a fair amount.
Translation: we’re likely to see Pop Watson play meaningful snaps. And while the offense does not change much when Watson is behind center, his game is different from that of the quarterbacks ahead of him on the depth chart.
Watson is smaller, quicker, and shiftier. If he does not try to do too much, he could be just what the doctor ordered.
When Duke has the ball
Because Duke’s offense is not very good, it would be easy to think that the Blue Devils do not have good players on that side of the ball.
That would be a big mistake.
Duke is very solid everywhere except left tackle and tight end, in which they are bad and heinous, respectively.
For the Hokies, the game plan is very simple: attack quarterback Malik Murphy’s blindside.
On the one hand, the Hokies could line up Antwaun Powell-Ryland over there and let him go wild. On the other hand, since APR will likely merit a lot of double teams, or chips at the very least, we could see Cole Nelson and Keyshawn Burgos turn in career efforts.
Either way, Tech’s defensive line should live in the Duke backfield.
Also, watch for more blitzes off the edge than have been the norm for the Hokies this year, especially from the Star position, where Keonta Jenkins is turning in a very solid senior season.
Final thoughts
There is still a lot to play for this season, but we are long past the point of rendering judgement on the team everyone expected to see thrive in 2024.
The team that will trot out onto the field in Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday night is a shell of the team that was slated to return almost every starter off a bounce-back 2023 team.
Teams that start fourth-stringers at running back do not often win night games on the road.
At the same time, the future could be now. Brent Pry and his staff will be making a lot of player personnel decisions in the next two weeks.
Don’t be surprised to see a few, or more, drives with Pop Watson and Jeremiah Coney in the backfield. Does that tandem look like it could lead a successful team in 2025 or 2026?
Ditto for the young, second-string wide receivers. The starters are banged up and have underachieved. Depending on game flow, fans could look up in the second half and see sophomores and freshmen at nearly every skill position.
And the Hokies may be in a tight game.
All of this is to say, expect the unexpected. Injuries, unsatisfied expectations, and a night game on the road against a good opponent can be very revealing.