The First Quarter Ain't Gonna be Fun
Wofford is possibly the least talented team to visit Lane Stadium in a generation, but they play better football than you might expect
It was a real challenge to find sufficient data to write this analysis of the upcoming game against Wofford. Most of the best data sources only track FBS teams. As a result, the game 3 data viz is much more heavily slanted toward VT. Still, there is some telling information therein, and I will hit on some of the major points.
In my very first Hokie Analytics article, I listed the following formula for talent:
Talent = Potential (to perform at a consistently elite level) + Actual Performance
The gap in potential between Virginia Tech and Wofford is so shocking that I double checked the source data, doubting what came through the API connection. It was correct, though. Virginia Tech has a 640.9 to 17.9 advantage in the 247 metric Team Talent. That is roughly twice the difference between VT and Alabama. The metric name is a bit of a misnomer - it just aggregates the recruiting ratings of every ranked scholarship player on each team (what I consider potential to perform). Wofford has one three-star recruit on its roster, and no player with a higher star ranking.
Despite the vast gulf in recruiting, not to mention Wofford’s 0-2 record (with no points scored), the Terriers do not play terrible football. Don’t believe me? Look at the PFF grades for the starters at each position. For those of you scoring at home, Wofford has higher grades than Virginia Tech in four out of seven position groups.
At this point you might be scratching your head and mouthing, “What?” Let’s dive in and sort this out.
Making Sense of the Difference in Talent
Virginia Tech is a vastly more talented football team than Wofford, but the starters are not performing much better, relative to the respective ceilings of the VT players vs. those of Wofford. The Terriers’ roster comprises very lowly ranked, or in most cases not ranked, recruits. They have a very low ceiling. That said, their PFF grades indicate that they are playing close to the absolute best football they are capable of playing.
Wofford’s projected starters along the defensive line average a 71.2 defensive grade through two games, 2.6 points lower than the projected starters for VT. Remember, 60 is the baseline score. The Terriers have only one position group with starters that score lower than the baseline in overall offensive or defensive grade (offensive line - 58.8). Virginia Tech has two such position groups (TE/WR - 58.3 and offensive line - 56.4).
Wofford’s 66.0 overall PFF grade in 2022 puts the Terriers 168th out of a combined 262 FBS and FCS schools. In comparison, 2-0 Indiana, a Big Ten school, has a 65.7 grade and #171 ranking. Old Dominion, who beat Tech in week 1, is currently grading out at 66.2, and Boston College, who VT dismantled last week, has a 63.9 grade and #178 ranking. Is Wofford a better team than Boston College? No, but they are playing better football relative to their physical ability, even in losses of 31 and 26 points, and despite failing to score.
To put it more simply, Wofford is a team with F- recruits playing D level football. By comparison, Virginia Tech (76.0 overall team grade) is a team comprised of C+/B- level recruits playing C level football. The Hokies are underperforming…for now.
Room to Grow
Where does this leave Virginia Tech? Coming off a dominant win over an ACC foe, the Hokies are still playing well below their capabilities. During the Techsideline preview podcast for the Wofford Game, Chris Coleman expressed the belief that the issue along the Tech offensive line (which is holding back other position groups) is less about ability and more about the new scheme and players’ minds tying up their feet. Brandon Patterson backed that up with his video review (it’s behind the paywall, but most of you reading this are probably already TSL Pass subscribers; if not, now is the time to subscribe, it is easily worth the $100/year price). However, I have a creeping fear that the reason guys are playing so hesitantly is that they are not natural fits for the blocking scheme Joe Rudolph runs. Will they get better? Sure. But I suspect we may find that for something like half of the offensive linemen in the two deep, their ceiling is lower in the Rudolph scheme than it was in Vance Vice’s.
On the flip side, I think the receivers have barely scratched the surface of their potential as a group. Aside from the low grades overall, we have seen little in the way of a downfield passing game and precious few yards after the catch (YAC). Look for both on Saturday, at least while the starters are still in the game. The wide receivers are slowly returning to health, and Connor Blumrick is playing more. In addition, if the offensive line is going to pull it together at all this season, it will be against Wofford. If Grant Wells does not have an average time to throw over three seconds in this game, it will be time to push the panic button. The YAC will come easier than the deep balls, but if Fontel Mines is looking at the same data I am, both will be points of emphasis.
Grades along the offensive line and at wide receiver are the two metrics coming out of the Wofford game that will indicate the rate at which this Hokies team is progressing. We really need to see some strong gains at both position groups, as the meat of the schedule begins in just six days when WVU comes to town.
Gut Feelings
My conclusion, following a careful analysis of the available data, is that Wofford is a well-coached football team across the board, and its players get the absolute most out of their (limited) God-given ability. Much to the dismay of Tech fans, I do not expect the Hokies to come out and steamroll the Terriers from the opening kick. In fact, I can hear the groans of the Lane Stadium faithful in my head now as Virginia Tech punts for the second time in the first quarter. I could very easily see this being a 3-0 Tech lead after one quarter and something in the neighborhood of 17-3 at halftime. (Yes, I do think Wofford will score, and they may even do so while the game is still, technically, in doubt).
I would not expect to see a super motivated VT football team. Kickoff is 11:00 a.m. and precisely zero Hokie players would tell you they came to Virginia Tech to play against teams like Wofford. There is seemingly little reason to play such a game in the first place, but it does offer a wonderful opportunity for the team to improve leading into West Virginia week. I expect the Hokies to take advantage of that opportunity, in fits and starts, and for the VT depth to eventually wear down the Terriers’ willingness and ability to compete. The clock should run constantly in the second half, and Chance Black could see double digit carries. We may even see Bryce Duke in the backfield for the first time. Feels like a 41-3 Tech win, which would be Wofford earning a push to go with an under on scoring.
Record outright: 1-1
Record against the spread: 1-1
Record over/under: 1-1