The Disappointment Bowl
Clemson comes to Lane Stadium and a look at the three quarters report card
Over the last decade, playing Clemson has forced Hokie fans to confront a huge gulf in talent and production between the two teams.
In 2024, that gulf remains in talent, but the difference in production is much smaller.
Clemson has slight to moderate advantages in most advanced stats, but Virginia Tech has two huge advantages:
Special Teams - VT is in the 84th percentile in SP+ compared to Clemson, which is in the 9th percentile
Defensive Points per Opportunity - VT is allowing 2.8 vs. Clemson’s 4.2
In order to have a chance this week, the Hokies need to win the field position battle. They don’t have to block a kick or return one for a touchdown (not that either would hurt), but they do need to be pin Clemson deep in their own end on a regular basis.
The Hokies also need to have the defensive points per opportunity in the game reflect the teams’ averages this year. This means, when Clemson gets inside the Hokies 40-yard line, Tech needs to limit the damage to a field goal, or force a turnover.
Brent Pry continued to play games with the injury report this week. While it is possible that Kyron Drones, Bhayshul Tuten, and Mansoor Delane will all play, it is probably more likely that none of them will play.
All three players have capable backups, but the lack of depth would likely become clear by the fourth quarter (no lead would be safe).
When Virginia Tech has the ball
The matchup that immediately jumps off the page is Jaylin Lane in the slot vs. Khalil Barnes. Expect the Hokies to target Lane early and often. Indeed, this is the only clear advantage the Hokies have.
Stephen Gosnell has had a surprisingly marvelous season less than a year removed from major knee surgery, and he should continue to find openings in the secondary.
Ali Jennings has been getting more snaps in the slot recently. If that continues, he might break out this week. At this point, since the Hokies have gotten so little production from him, a 5-catches-for-70-yards-type of game would be a real surprise, and one that could tip the game in the Hokies’ favor.
If Tuten cannot play, keep an eye on how Tyler Bowen calls run plays. If he sticks with a lot of outside zone, Jeremiah Coney might be the better option. Despite losing a fumble last week, Coney showed speed, vision, and patience.
When Clemson has the ball
As has been the case in recent years, Clemson does not have any wide receivers that should scare you. The bigger worry is that one of the Tech safeties will blow a coverage or take a bad angle and allow a big play.
Mose Phillips, in particular, has really tailed off of late.
This would be a good week to have Sam Brumfield back and playing well. Jaden Keller and Caleb Woodson both struggled last week. When healthy, Brumfield plays at a consistently higher level than Keller.
One must wonder if Woodson might be hitting a wall. He has played a lot of snaps this year at Will, a position that is completely new to him. Eventually, it takes a physical and mental toll.
Keli Lawson never seems to be healthy, but if he is this week, the Tech linebacking corps would certainly benefit from his presence.
The main thing is that Tech needs to get solid contributions from its second stringers. The starters match up well enough with the Clemson offense, but there is a risk that they get worn down, leading to another second half deluge of points allowed.
Offensive position groups
If Drones and Tuten play, the offensive position group grades will be nearly equal between the two teams.
I am assuming neither plays, and if that is the case, the Hokies will have much less big play capability in their backfield.
Remember, as well as Collin Schlee played against Syracuse, his PFF grade was near the bottom of the 2024 Drones grades range.
Schlee’s health is also a question. He finished the game last week, but he was clearly not 100%. Pop Watson should be ready to go, regardless of which QB starts.
Defensive position groups
Clemson’s starting defenders are better across the board, which places more onus on the Hokies to be opportunistic in their playmaking.
Tech does not have to win every defensive snap - just the ones that count most. Examples include:
Third down
Inside Tech’s 40-yard line
Momentum shifting plays
Too often this season, when the Hokies have a chance to either flip momentum or throw a knock-out punch, the defense allows a groan-worthy first down.
Tech cannot continue to allow eight-yard gains on 3rd and 7, or chunk gains following a penalty on Clemson (like holding).
Final thoughts
If the home crowd is loud and engaged for the duration of the contest, the Hokies have a chance.
A nearly 33% pregame win percentage, even with all the injury questions, indicates the degree to which Clemson is beatable.
Technically, Clemson is still in the conference title hunt, but realistically, it is a long shot, given the remaining games for Miami and SMU.
If the Tigers feel like there is nothing to play for, might Tech not get their best shot?
Hokie Nation is not happy about the team losing its fourth one-score game.
Things seem to be coming to a tipping point. I wouldn’t put it past this team to rise up and play well against Clemson.
At 5-4, this year’s team may not appear to be much better than last year’s.
But a comparison of SP+ and advanced metrics shows vast improvement, year-over-year. Compare the above numbers to this point in the 2023 season:
SP+ Offensive Percentile: 35th (+43 YOY)
SP+ Defensive Percentile: 69th (+4)
SP+ Overall Percentile: 51st (+30)
The vast majority of the gains have come from the offense. No Tech team has ever been great without a top-notch defense, though. If the defense this year was above the 80th percentile, the Hokies would probably 7-2, or maybe even 8-1 right now.
Comparing the 16 advanced metric quadrants in the above data viz to this time last year, we see why the SP+ numbers have improved so much:
Blue (good) - 8 boxes (vs. 6 last year)
Tan (ok) - 2 (vs. 0 last year)
Red (bad) - 6 (vs. 10 last year)
The gains are all pretty evenly spread. The result is that when the Hokies lose, instead of getting blown out, it has been by a touchdown or less.
Of course that is, in some ways, more frustrating, because a play or two really does separate a loss from a victory.
However, wins are a lagging indicator of progress within any program. So many other areas must improve and reach certain thresholds before a team starts winning consistently.
This program is closer than it may appear to being the kind of consistent winner for which the fanbase so desperately yearns.
The Hokies are within reach of Clemson, and winning on Saturday would not be any sort of great shock.
Tech has a clear advantage over both Duke and Virginia, its final two scheduled opponents, whose stocks are on the decline as their losses mount.
At this point, 7-5 looks like the most likely regular season outcome. Commitment and buy-in is excellent within the program, and the seniors all would have something to play for in the bowl, so there is a very good chance Tech will win its bowl game.
The most likely final record is 8-5, with 9-4 a stretch. Another 7-6 campaign would be a disappointment, but if Drones and Tuten miss significant time, it is certainly possible.
Although not what everyone was expecting back in August, given injuries to key players, and a schedule that was much tougher than originally expected, those results would not be bad.