The ACC's Import-Export Market

In the portal, some teams giveth, and some taketh away

Gone are the days when, at the end of one season, prognosticators had a good sense of what each team’s roster would look like the following year.

A lot of transfer portal coverage goes to individual moves, but it is highly instructive to zoom out and look at the overall market.

Stable programs generally have a philosophy about how much they want recruit from the portal, but teams with new coaches tend to see large portal shifts, be them positive or negative. As a result, a market analysis is necessary each year to understand what is going on with each program.

For this analysis, I looked at all 17 teams that will compete in the ACC in 2024, and counted portal acquisitions and departures, as well as average portal rating from 247. I filtered out all players below a 0.86 rating because the focus here is on guys who are expected to make an impact on the field (not guys who need to shift down a level or two).

High volume talent importers

This is now two years in a row that Louisville has been especially active in the portal. I still want to see one more year of data before pronouncing that the new norm in the Jeff Brohm era, but even if the number dips a bit next year, the Cardinals appear to have adopted a recruiting strategy that leans heavily on the portal.

Boston College has a new coach and was sorely lacking talent, putting it in catch-up mode. The same is true for UVA, even though it is year 3 for Tony Elliot (such is the talent deficit in Charlottesville).

SMU is new to the league this year, and despite winning the AAC last year, clearly there was an opportunity, and need, to upgrade talent. Whether the Mustangs can continue on this pace in the future is uncertain.

The NC State Wolfpack seem to be active in the high profile transfer market year-in, year-out, and 2024 is no different. Dave Doeren has once again acquired much more talent than he lost.

Low volume talent importers

Cal brought in more, and better, talent than they lost, which is important given the level at which the program has performed lately (middling at best). One has to think the Golden Bears would have been net exporters had they not gotten the life-line from the ACC.

Syracuse, like Boston College, has a new coach who inherited a roster lacking talent. Fran Brown came in with a reputation as a good recruiter, and so far he has not disappointed Orange fans.

Florida St. continues to be very active under Mike Norvell, but now that the program is back to competing for National Championships, the talent flow is bi-directional. Those looking for an expanded role were usually highly recruited players out of high school who would be capable contributors at another P4 program.

After last year’s surprising success in the portal, Brent Key has brought more talent to Georgia Tech this offseason than he has lost. The Yellow Jackets are continuing to trend up.

Pitt netted out positive, but the guys they are bringing in are not quite as talented as they guys they are losing, if the ratings are accurate. One does get the sense that the Pat Narduzzi era could be approaching its end.

Virginia Tech returns almost the entire roster from last year, but the Hokies still managed to net out positively in the portal, with potentially one more signee to come.

Low volume talent exporters

Considering the offseason coaching change, and how successful Mike Elko was at Duke, things have gone about as well as could be hoped for in Manny Diaz’s first spring as the head coach in Durham. Given the lack of support for the football program, Duke is a perennial candidate to be a major talent exporter.

Mack Brown has long been lauded for his recruiting prowess, but his appeal with high schoolers has not fully translated with transfers. Perhaps the writing is on the wall, with Brown’s age a clear indicator that his tenure is approaching its endpoint. Negative recruiting is surely a contributing factor for the Tar Heels.

Wake Forest does not have a sufficient level of support (read: NIL $) in place to net out positively in the portal, but Dave Clawson has done a good job of minimizing his losses and pulling in a few guys who can probably help the Demon Deacons.

Miami has lost significant talent from a roster that underachieved last year. Things just don’t seem right down in Coral Gables. Are the Hurricanes really going to churn through another head coach?

It’s no surprise that Stanford is a net exporter, given the tough academic standards. Keeping the losses to five players isn’t bad, but the Cardinal are losing some of their best talent, and it’s not like this was a deep and talented roster last year.

High volume talent exporters

And now we’ve reached the Clemson portion of the program. The Tigers have lost seven players to the portal who all have the potential to be starters at another P4 school, and Dabo still refuses to mine the portal to make up for the losses. Perhaps it wouldn’t be an issue if the Tigers weren’t missing on so many of their supposedly highly rated high school recruits.

Closing thoughts

These numbers will continue to move, and updates to the database are not made in real-time anyway, but directionally, the the data make clear both the strategies employed by ACC schools, as well as who is doing well given their resources.

One has to think that Clemson would do well in the portal, if Dabo ever reversed course.

It seems like, in comparison, Brent Pry has found the sweet spot - be selective, get guys who are a good cultural fit, and prioritize those with local ties or prior relationships with a member of the coaching staff.