Tech Goes 1-0 (Against Itself) in Week 1
15 penalties and 5 turnovers help Virginia Tech rally to beat itself in the opening game of the 2022 season. However, below the topline numbers, there is evidence of improvement in many areas.
Note: All PFF grades are preliminary, and current as of 6:00 a.m. Monday morning (September 5). These grades can, and likely will, shift a bit, but the broader takeaways should hold true.
Virginia Tech came within 33 seconds of beating Old Dominion in the opening game of the 2022 football season, a result which would have been a borderline miracle, statistically speaking, given the number of major unforced errors the Hokies made.
The turnovers and penalties are the headline numbers, so let’s examine them first. In regular season road games since 2002, the Hokies have won 40% of the games in which they turn the ball over three times and 29% when they turn it over four times. The Hokies entered Friday night’s game 0-2 in five turnover games.
There is limited correlation between road winning percentage and penalties committed where the Hokies are concerned, but Friday’s total of 15 penalties is the Hokies’ most since the 2005 ACC Championship loss to Florida St.
So, no, the Hokies were not going to commit 15 penalties, turn the ball over five times, and still win the game. Yet, and still, they were 33 seconds from doing just that. So, how good is this team, and how good can it ultimately be?
Let’s set a baseline. As a team, per PFF, Tech graded out at 73.6 overall, 66.1 on offense and 76.5 on defense. Remember, just like in school, 60 is the dividing line between passing and failing. So, Tech turned in a C performance in Norfolk. While not a grade worthy of celebration, it was generally good enough to win in week 1. Only one other 0-1 team graded out higher, Appalachian State. And they needed six touchdowns in the fourth quarter against a porous UNC defense to get to their 75.0 grade. Notable teams that graded out lower than VT include:
Both “Backyard Brawl” teams (#17 Pitt and WVU)
Penn St., which defeated Purdue
#5 Notre Dame, which beat expectations in a 21-10 loss at #2 Ohio St.
And, for reference, ODU graded out at 57.6 overall, 49.5 on offense and 67.8 on defense. Tech brought a more talented team to Norfolk, played better, and still lost. What should that portend for our win/loss expectations?
The Ceiling
The good news coming out of Friday night is that, barring injuries on a massive scale, we have seen the performance floor for this team. And as floors go, a C is not that bad, especially given the number of penalties and unforced turnovers necessary to achieve said C. Projecting the ceiling is a little more tricky.
Head Coach Brent Pry mentioned in the post-game press conference that penalties had been an issue in the final preseason scrimmage, so a sloppy Game 1 was not completely unexpected. Until we have evidence to prove otherwise, I chalk that up to a new system and lots of preseason injuries. There were too many players on Friday night who were slated to be backups or third stringers who were in on a lot of plays. It’s not like this was a vintage Miami performance in which guys were committing personal fouls every other play. Learn to line up correctly and we should be fine. Also, let’s be honest here, a few of those calls were garbage.
On the turnovers, in my book, Grant Wells was responsible for at most two of the four interceptions he threw (the first two). Regarding the field goal snap, we will probably go 2+ decades, at least, before we see another similar debacle. Perhaps the Hokies were due for something like that to happen, but they are not due anymore.
All that considered, I expect the median game this year to include 5-7 VT penalties and 1-2 turnovers. Even absent any other player performance improvement, that decline in mistakes would likely move this team into the C+ or B- territory. How does that compare with recent Tech teams? About par for the course:
The PFF metrics point to a seven win season for these 2022 Hokies, perhaps eight if they can both limit mistakes and improve a bit as the season goes on, but for the time being, Tech’s FPI numbers sure leave a bad taste in the mouth:
Review of Pregame Keys to the Game
In my preview analysis, I outlined three keys to the game. They were:
ODU returned nearly all of its starters and production from 2021, but depth was a question mark
The Tech offensive line needed to outperform the ODU offensive line at a clip commensurate with their 2021 PFF grades, if not greater
Hayden Wolff graded out slightly better than Grant Wells in 2021, but in this game the success of both quarterbacks would depend heavily on the surrounding cast
The results were mixed in each category. Let’s review in detail.
ODU’s Experience
Old Dominion did not play a good football game in week 1, but at no point in the game did they flinch. In my preview, I wrote this:
Old Dominion returns almost all of their production from a year ago, while Virginia Tech brings back very little. These Monarchs have played a lot of football together, and I expect that to show on Friday night. With a big opening game in their home stadium, it would be easy to get too amped up, resulting in blown assignments and stupid penalties. I would be surprised if either of those things happen. ODU has been building toward this season, and this game in particular, for a long time. Tech will get their best shot.
There were no cheap shot personal fouls or late hits from any ODU player. No celebration penalties. Nobody lost their cool. They worked with what they had, believed in their game plan, and made opportunistic plays, none greater than the interception off the Jalen Holston ricochet that led to the game winning touchdown.
I also raised the question of depth along the offensive line, writing:
High snap counts along the offensive line typically indicate two truisms: the starters avoided injury and the backups weren’t any good.
Again, both observations held true. The ODU linemen avoided injury and the backups must not be very good. The starting linemen played a combined 351 snaps, with four playing 71 and one playing 67. Center Xavier Black, currently the recipient of a Bluto Blutarsky-esque 0.0 pass blocking grade from PFF, was not actually that bad. But he was not that good either. Black played 71 offensive snaps, and on 41 dropbacks, he allowed 7 pressures, 6 hurries, and 1 hit. His final pass blocking grade will likely end up somewhere in the 40s to low 50s. Still, if there were any capable backups, they likely would have seen at least some action.
Offensive Line Performance
On balance, Virginia Tech’s offensive line outperformed Old Dominion’s at a level similar to 2021. However, both lines underperformed.
In 2021, outside of Nick Saldiveri, Virginia Tech linemen held a consistent 5-7 point edge in run blocking grades, which extended closer to 10 points in pass blocking. Individually, Kaden Moore, Jesse Hanson, and Silas Dzansi, all Hokies, were the three highest performing linemen among the starters, and by a wide margin. But compared to the 2021 averages of the 10 starters (the maroon lines in the scatter plot on the right), only Dzansi remained in the above average quadrant for both run and pass blocking. Moore and Hanson were above average for the game, but both averages regressed by about 10 points from 2021.
Supporting Cast in the Passing Game
It was a rough night for both quarterbacks. Grant Wells completed 58.3% of his passes for 193 yards. He threw one touchdown and four interceptions (31.7 QBR). Hayden Wolff completed 40% of his passes for 165 yards, with no TDs or INTs (24.5 QBR). In my preview, I had posited:
I think the difference in their stats on Friday night will result from circumstances beyond their control:
Time to throw - VT has the advantage along both lines, and Tech coaches have indicated they want to take some deep shots to stretch the ODU defense
Receiver separation - the QB that has to fit the ball into tighter throwing windows is likely to commit more turnovers
Considering the two quarterbacks were near carbon copies of each other in 2021 PFF grades, the results from Game 1 were somewhat surprising.
Clearly, the supporting cast, and luck to some degree, played a role in the game’s results. Wells bested Wolff in accuracy percent by 10 percentage points, and his passing grade was a whopping 23 points higher. It felt like Wolff was under siege all night, but his average time to throw of 2.8 seconds was only 0.2 less than that of Wells. And Wells was much better when pressured (10-15, 0 TD, 1 INT) than he was working out of a clean pocket (11-21, 1 TD, 3 INT). This tells me:
Wells is as athletic as advertised, and he throws well on the run
VT’s wide receivers, especially after Kaleb Smith went out with an injury, struggled to separate when ODU sat back in coverage (14-26, 1 TD, 3 INT)
Speaking of the VT wide receivers, two metrics really stand out. The 13.7 yard average depth of target is twice as a high as it was for this group in 2022. The average grade for pass routes also increased from 57.1 to 65.2. Additionally, the caught percentage remained unchanged, and there was not one drop among the entire group. One game is not enough data to draw conclusions, but the numbers reflect what we heard coming out of camp, namely that Tech wants to push the ball down the field, and that the receivers and tight ends are improving.
Returning to the quarterbacks. most surprising was that the QB who threw 4 interceptions (Wells) had half the turnover worthy play rate of the QB who threw 0 interceptions (Wolff). Luck was clearly on the side of the home-standing Monarchs in this regard. Ultimately, though, the game’s result is reflected in two metrics: running grade and big time throw rate. Wolff proved more agile than many, myself included, expected. His third and long scramble on the final drive set up a fourth and short that ODU converted. He then completed a pass down to the VT one-yard line just before Norell Pollard laid him out.
Three Players to Watch
Finally, I noted in the preview that I was going to be looking at three veteran players as a measure of the coaching staff’s potential moving forward: Dax Hollifield, Chamarri Connor, and Jalen Holston. Why these three?
All three guys are in their final year in Blacksburg, and for most fans, they fall into the category of “they are what they are”, meaning that expectations for improvement are limited.
They are regarded as three of the hardest working players on the team, meaning they take nutrition, training, and game prep seriously.
At best, their overall PFF grades have been stagnant, and at worst they have declined through the years.
It will take a month’s worth of games to get a decent sense for how much of a difference the new coaches and support staff have made, but the early returns are promising.
Dax played his best game as a Hokie, with his 90.5 overall defensive grade beating his previous best of 81.1 all the way back in his freshman year against UNC. Connor also saw a nice bounce back from the regression of the past two seasons. He has traditionally struggled against slot receivers, but he dominated the matchup with Old Dominion’s TE Zack Kuntz. Holston played limited snaps and has been dealing with a nagging injury, so I do not read too much into his grade from Friday night.
The Takeaway
Virginia Tech’s performance against Old Dominion in some ways redefined ugly, but aside from the 15 penalties and 5 turnovers (admittedly, a huge caveat), the Hokies outplayed the Monarchs. Tech’s players looked bigger and stronger than they did last year and, anecdotally, I saw more instances in which Hokie defenders hit and stopped opposing ball carriers in their tracks than I had seen in the past few seasons (as opposed to getting dragged another 2-3 yards).
There is a very real possibility that one offseason with the new staff has improved the team across the board, but the results will be the same as last year if the Hokies do not get healthy. Keyshawn King played the best game of his career, but he is the third string tailback. He was expected to see more time catching passes than carrying the ball this season. And don’t forget, when he came out for a rest, Chance Black, the fourth string tailback, was getting carries. The same was true at receiver once Kaleb Smith went down. Virginia Tech’s starters at these positions are solid, but lack explosiveness. Their backups have potential, but if they have to play the majority of the snaps this season, year 1 for Brent Pry could be rough.